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Set but the flush card comes...(25NL)

  
 
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gingerwizard
Old 05-16-2007, 02:23 PM     Post subject: Set but the flush card comes...(25NL) #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is new to the table

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($28.45)
CO ($37.15)
Hero ($52.50)
SB ($18)
BB ($16.70)
UTG ($24.40)
UTG+1 ($37.60)
MP1 ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4, 4.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.25, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1) 9, 3, 4 (4 players)
SB bets $0.25, BB calls $0.25, UTG+1 raises to $1.25, Hero raises to $4, SB calls $3.75, BB folds, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: ($10.50) J (2 players)
SB bets $13.75 (All-In), Hero?
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redmanstl
Old 05-16-2007, 02:53 PM #2 (permalink)  
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redmanstl
Tough to let it go, but let's look at the choices:

1) Fold - If you fold, you've gotta put him on not only a flush draw, but a really good one.......that or 99/JJ, both of which have you crucified. But 99 was nutz on the flop......no way he'd come in for .25 with it & 2 diamonds on the board. So if you call & you're loasing, it's probably to (suited) AK, AQ, A10, KQ, or K10, JJ, or 99.

2) Call - Cant raise if he's AI, but look at the sheer math of the call. You're getting ROUGHLY 1.7 to 1 on your $$ (13.75 into a pot of now 24.25). Remember, only the 13.75 in question ACTUALLY BELONGS TO YOU at this point, and assuming he doesn't have JJ or 99, you have 10 cards that could come to help you (one more 4, 3 3's, 3 9's, & 3 J's). 20-21% chance that you'll get one of those, meaning that if you believe you're beat now, you gotta fold, and actually the pot would have to be something like $68 right now to justify the call if behind.

Summary: Villian is new, and the math tells me to fold now, watch him, and get my $$ back later.
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redmanstl
Old 05-16-2007, 03:10 PM #3 (permalink)  
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redmanstl
After examining this hand for a bit, I seriously believe he has KQ of diamonds, but I still don't know how readily I could fold given the immediacy of having to act RIGHT THEN and decide.
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ShowMeAtlas
Old 05-17-2007, 06:54 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I would HATE to fold this but that sort of flop donk bet is nearly always a draw. I would probably have to abuse him in the chatbox though...
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Miffed22001
Old 05-17-2007, 07:16 PM #5 (permalink)  
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fold i think but i feel bad doing it.
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Seasider
Old 05-17-2007, 09:49 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Seasider
His bet makes no sense no matter how I look at it. I am sitting here trying to convince myself he has J9..

But that doesnt push as it only gets called by a flush.

And a flush doesnt push it looks for value.....

I'd probably fold as you only have $4 invested. And keep an eye on the baddie on flush boards in future hands!
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