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Set of Aces, monotone flop

  
 
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drtofu66
Old 04-12-2006, 03:48 AM     Post subject: Set of Aces, monotone flop #1 (permalink)  
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I'm a 1.38:1 dog here according to Pokerstove getting 1.7:1 (did I do this right?). Is this range fair? I'm a bigger dog if I take the Qd drawing hands out. Also-- anyone raise the flop?

Board: Kd 7d Ad 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.9930 % 41.99% 00.00% { AhAs }
Hand 2: 58.0070 % 58.01% 00.00% { KK, QcQd, QdQh, QdQs, 77, AdKd, AdQd, AdJd, AdTd, Ad9d, Ad8d, Ad7d, Ad6d, Ad5d, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd7d, Kd6d, Kd5d, Kd4d, Kd3d, Kd2d, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, Qd8d, Qd7d, Qd6d, Qd5d, Qd4d, Qd3d, Qd2d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Jd7d, Jd6d, Jd5d, Jd4d, Jd3d, Jd2d, Td9d, Td8d, Td7d, Td6d, Td5d, Td4d, Td3d, Td2d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 9d5d, 9d4d, 9d3d, 9d2d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 8d4d, 8d3d, 8d2d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 7d3d, 7d2d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 6d3d, 6d2d, 5d4d, 5d3d, 5d2d, 4d3d, 4d2d, 3d2d, AKo, QdJc, QdJh, QdJs, QdTc, QdTh, QdTs, Qd9c, Qd9h, Qd9s }


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($24.63)
UTG+1 ($28.50)
MP1 ($24.75)
Hero ($25.25)
MP3 ($9.15)
CO ($10.55)
Button ($19.25)
SB ($16)
BB ($18.07)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A. SB posts a blind of $0.10.
3 folds, Hero raises to $1, MP3 calls $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75.

Flop: ($3.10) K, 7, A (3 players)
BB bets $3.07, Hero calls $3.07, MP3 folds.

Turn: ($9.24) 3 (2 players)
BB calls $14 (All-In), Hero???
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bair
Old 04-12-2006, 03:55 AM #2 (permalink)  
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never, ever fold this...and you included WAY too many hands in his range
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drtofu66
Old 04-12-2006, 04:19 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Is this better?


Board: Kd Ad 7d 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 50.2199 % 50.22% 00.00% { AhAs }
Hand 2: 49.7801 % 49.78% 00.00% { KcKh, KcKs, KhKs, QcQd, QdQh, QdQs, 77, AKs, QdJd, QdTd, Qd9d, JdTd, Jd9d, Jd8d, Td9d, Td8d, Td7d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 8d7d, 8d6d, 8d5d, 7d6d, 7d5d, 7d4d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5d4d, 5d3d, 4d3d, 4d2d, 3d2d, AKo }
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bair
Old 04-12-2006, 04:31 AM #4 (permalink)  
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he probably has the baby flush here very little percent of the time considering it looks like he is protecting something other than a flush..which is very possible considering the flop texture. id say 20% of the time he has the flush, and even when he has the flush you have 10 outs to a boat or better.
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Vinterriket
Old 04-12-2006, 05:07 AM #5 (permalink)  
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If villain has a flush, that means he called a preflop raise with an unpaired hand without A or K. And then villain is fastplaying a flopped flush. How likely is this based on your read of villain?

I agree with bair, it seems he is trying to protect something. I'd say villain has AK or 77. Time to take his stack.
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 02:10 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 you're ahead 100% of the time...
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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drtofu66
Old 04-12-2006, 07:13 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I called.

Villain showed 4d3d.

I suckout on the river when a 7 hits.

[I make note that villain calls raises with SC]
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 07:47 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 well played, villain
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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SuperDave9x19
Old 04-12-2006, 07:54 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drtofu66
I called.

Villain showed 4d3d.

I suckout on the river when a 7 hits.

[I make note that villain calls raises with SC]
whew.
Been playing money poker for 34 years and decided in 2002 to try that TX Holdem game on TV. Then found Pokerstars in Summer 2005. Still not an overall winner but i am on a good trend and nearly there.
 
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SuperDave9x19
Old 04-12-2006, 08:00 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
you're ahead 100% of the time...
with 3 diamonds out.... heh heh

Don't get me wrong. 3 suited showing does not ALWAYS = flush, but i guarantee you that 3 As is not 100% winning against 3 of suit showing on flop.

You are a class act.
Been playing money poker for 34 years and decided in 2002 to try that TX Holdem game on TV. Then found Pokerstars in Summer 2005. Still not an overall winner but i am on a good trend and nearly there.
 
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 08:12 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 Dave:`
-100% was based on action and stakes, NOT the board
-meant to illustrate that you should never fold here at this level
-it becomes a bit of a thinker if you are playing a very smart lagg, but tofu gave no reads
-you are very immature and newbish for a 40-year-old
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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drmcboy
Old 04-12-2006, 08:16 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 Yes, raise the flop. Outs to full + solid chance you're ahead = play fast.
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drtofu66
Old 04-12-2006, 08:20 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinterriket
If villain has a flush, that means he called a preflop raise with an unpaired hand without A or K. And then villain is fastplaying a flopped flush. How likely is this based on your read of villain?
I just know this is the postflop play that I'd make if I had the baby flush (though I like to think I wouldn't have called a PFR with a SC with fewer than 3 others in the pot. And nothing lower than 54s).
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drtofu66
Old 04-12-2006, 10:10 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by drmcboy
Yes, raise the flop. Outs to full + solid chance you're ahead = play fast.
What's kind of raise? I chronically underbet in spots like this.

$9-- he has to call $6 for a $15 pot

VS

$12-- he has to call $9 for a $18 pot
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Miffed22001
Old 04-12-2006, 10:16 PM #15 (permalink)  
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 3 bet, probable fold to push unless you think villain is a donk.
Nice to see players beginning to adapt their lines with monster hands...
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nutsinho
Old 04-12-2006, 10:24 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
3 bet, probable fold to push unless you think villain is a donk.
Nice to see players beginning to adapt their lines with monster hands...
This line could not possibly be correct given stack sizes and hand ranges.
My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
 
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Miffed22001
Old 04-12-2006, 10:32 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nutsinho
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
3 bet, probable fold to push unless you think villain is a donk.
Nice to see players beginning to adapt their lines with monster hands...
This line could not possibly be correct given stack sizes and hand ranges.
probably true.
Sod it.
Push
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