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Scared $$$ ???

  
 
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BankItDrew
Old 03-31-2008, 04:57 AM     Post subject: Scared $$$ ??? #1 (permalink)  
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 No reads

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($177)
BB ($342.95)
UTG ($220)
UTG+1 ($56.85)
MP1 ($43)
MP2 ($127.70)
MP3 ($42.05)
Hero ($402.60)
Button ($424.15)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, A.
3 folds, MP2 raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, 2 folds, BB raises to $18, MP2 folds, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($43) J, 9, A (2 players)
BB bets $20, Hero raises to $40, BB raises to $100, Hero calls $60.

Turn: ($243) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $224.95 and is all-in

Hero???????
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martindcx1e
Old 03-31-2008, 06:18 AM #2 (permalink)  
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umm fold preflop and don't minraise?
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
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BankItDrew
Old 03-31-2008, 09:12 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
umm fold preflop and don't minraise?
I agree.

Now what about the current situation Hero is in?
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Fnord
Old 03-31-2008, 09:22 AM #4 (permalink)  
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If he plays AK like this, it's a call.

Board: Ad 9d Jc 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.364% 56.36% 00.00% 372 0.00 { As9s }
Hand 1: 43.636% 43.64% 00.00% 288 0.00 { AA, JJ, AJs+, AKo }
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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Erpel
Old 03-31-2008, 12:04 PM #5 (permalink)  
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(Beginner warning)
Fnord's 'if he plays AKo this way' range includes AQs, which initially makes me want to contest that assumption. And then I think about what Villain has seen.

Villain has seen Hero call a standard raise, call a 3-bet, and min-raise a half-pot bet to just below pot on the flop. How does Villain read Hero? I think possibly weak. Or monstrously strong and slow played.

Villains flop 3bet is to 2.5x the previous bet and I can't help but think about bet sizing. It feels to me like Villain from the flop is trying to maximise value, and I would tend to polarize his range towards JJ and AA. It is possible that he's pouncing on perceived weakness with AK or AQs in the flop 3bet, but not so much on the turn AI. Hero's flop call has some measure of reluctance to it, but he does call, and he would have to understand that AI on turn with AK or AQs is a bluff.

In my noob estimate he would in some situations with AK or AQs 1) not have 3bet the flop and 2) not have gone AI on the turn where he would do it 100% of the time with AA, JJ and AJ. To pull numbers out of thin air maybe he has AA (1), JJ (3), AJ (6) 70% of the time and AKs (2), AKo (8), AQs (2) 30% of the time. (this means that he'd only play AKs, AKo or AQs this way on average 5/14 of the time)

Edit note: Is 99 definitely out of his pre-flop 3bet range?
Edit note 2: Ok, so I listed AJ instead of AJs which was in Fnord's listed range. Ehm.. my ratios are completely off - polarization comment and general observations may still be valid.
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XTR1000
Old 03-31-2008, 12:55 PM #6 (permalink)  
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I wouldn´t gamble in the hope an unknown plays TPTK/GK for stacks 170BB deep. We look so much like 99
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yo
 
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jimmy44
Old 03-31-2008, 02:56 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XTR1000
I wouldn´t gamble in the hope an unknown plays TPTK/GK for stacks 170BB deep. We look so much like 99
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Pasta
Old 03-31-2008, 03:46 PM #8 (permalink)  

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Since it was a raise from the BB, Villain could have been squeezing light with a SC, which makes this a clear fold. I would not expect an unknown to play AKo this way unless he's got AxKd, in which case you are not that far ahead. Is the average opponent really going to try this hard to get 170BB in on a 20BB pot with TPTK against an unknown?

Certain villains can definitely show up with air here. You begged him to 3-bet bluff you with the min flop raise; that would have been the time to get the chips in the middle. If he did have air, the turn offered a nice bluffing opportunity. But as played, I could never make that call without some kind of read. I would fold marginal pre-flop hands to a 3-bet until you have at least a little history on your opponents. And if you want to play 2-pr for stacks, get it in on the flop.
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Seabass
Old 03-31-2008, 05:24 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Your deep and have no info on him so..
Quote:
Originally Posted by martindcx1e
fold preflop and don't minraise
As played I would flip a coin.
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