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Miffed22001
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02-07-2009, 01:16 AM
Post subject: Rivered dem trips then folded
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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TAGGY 10/8 type over 400 or so hands.
My image is 15/13 and fairly aggressive- running over the table a little
Im never ahead on the river right? I bet the turn to try and define opponents hand range i.e if he has a set ill get raised, being called means its either a FD or a Queen - bet size on river makes me believe im being value bet to death (and i dont put it past opp to have a boat here if hes real good) Had it been bigger or smaller id have insta-called.
Thoughts?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG+1 ($211.35)
MP1 ($100.40)
MP2 ($100)
Hero (MP3) ($121.45)
CO ($275.35)
Button ($114)
SB ($124.55)
BB ($134.30)
UTG ($93.85)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J , Q
4 folds, Hero raises to $3, CO calls $3, Button calls $3, 1 fold, BB calls $2
Flop: ($12.50) 3 , Q , 2 (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, 1 fold, Button calls $8, 1 fold
Turn: ($28.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $13, Button calls $13
River: ($54.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $24, Hero folds...?
Total pot: $54.50 | Rake: $2.65
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,807
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call here about always. Shove about never. You look like AK - especially your turn bet.
villain can easily have 88-JJ, AK here as well as boats and better trips.
I think you win here way more than 25% of the time.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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folding here would be terrible , I'm not sure whether I like check calling this river or betting $25ish for value.
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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I also call. I kinda think it's fairly close vs a 10/8 tho -- I'd like to see his "call PFR%". but busted FDs may be enough to justify it.
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elipsesjeff
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Northern Virginia
Posts: 4,900
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Even if his range is entirely Qs and he's betting for value, he'll have 4 QTs, 3 QJs, 4 KQs and 4 AQs. So worst case scenario we win 1/2 pot 20% of the time and full pot 27% of the time, giving us equity of around 37% equity (37.5% to be exact). Pretty easy call getting 3-1 and he doesn't even have to be bluffing the missed FD for it to be correct.
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gametight
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 494
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I like the river check..... now SNAP call
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gametight
SNAP call
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You bet to see where you were at on the turn (too small of a bet btw, make it on the other side of half pot next time) and it was villains call that made you think you were behind?!?!?
If your image is 'running over the table,' then his calling range is much wider than just a flopped set or TPbetterK+. Flush draws, middle pairs for example.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Quote:
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Originally Posted by gametight
SNAP call
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You bet to see where you were at on the turn (too small of a bet btw, make it on the other side of half pot next time) and it was villains call that made you think you were behind?!?!?
If your image is 'running over the table,' then his calling range is much wider than just a flopped set or TPbetterK+. Flush draws, middle pairs for example. |
agree on bet size on turn - i think i misread the pot size as id expect to bet $18 ish here.
How many people think that any better Qs and mid range pairs eg 99-JJ squeeze this preflop?
I think his hand range, now i think about it, is more toward small pockets that boated the river or naked FDs with big cards eg Axs with a pair...?
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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I think your turn bet sized widens his made hand calling range on the turn (i.e. 99-JJ), problem is this guy will like isnta-snap check behind a ton with those because he's so fucking happy to get to showdown.
I gues KQ/AQ make up the majority of his range, but I would have a hard time folding. I disagree that he has QTs anywhere near the frequency he has AQ/KQ
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floptquadswunc
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: nowhere and everywhere
Posts: 44
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I like the check on the end to induce a bluff or lose the minimum if he has a monster. You have to call here, I think anyway, come on, u can't fold this hand. Are you that strong of a player? Maybe that's why I've been losing.............. But seriously, this looks like he has a flush draw, missed, puts you on crapola, and is trying to steal from a thief (based on YOUR image). CALL.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by floptquadswunc
I like the check on the end to induce a bluff or lose the minimum if he has a monster. You have to call here, I think anyway, come on, u can't fold this hand. Are you that strong of a player? Maybe that's why I've been losing.............. But seriously, this looks like he has a flush draw, missed, puts you on crapola, and is trying to steal from a thief (based on YOUR image). CALL.
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Imo a half decent player (and im assuming he is from stats) bets big wit ha boat as he feels Qx never folds and bets big with a bluff - the river bet isnt really either of those - and its the bet size that is giving me a bad feeling about calling...
meh - no idea what he had anyway
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,455
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I agree with everything spenda said. Villlan will very rarely have a worse Q. But we has trips and great odds so that being said I'd convince myself hes valuebetting JJ-TT and call.
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"the world def needs more bikeses"
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floptquadswunc
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: nowhere and everywhere
Posts: 44
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
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Originally Posted by floptquadswunc
I like the check on the end to induce a bluff or lose the minimum if he has a monster. You have to call here, I think anyway, come on, u can't fold this hand. Are you that strong of a player? Maybe that's why I've been losing.............. But seriously, this looks like he has a flush draw, missed, puts you on crapola, and is trying to steal from a thief (based on YOUR image). CALL.
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Imo a half decent player (and im assuming he is from stats) bets big wit ha boat as he feels Qx never folds and bets big with a bluff - the river bet isnt really either of those - and its the bet size that is giving me a bad feeling about calling...
meh - no idea what he had anyway |
I don't know what 10/8 means... I play mostly B&M casinos. my usual opponents hand ranges are much wider than this guys, for sure. What if this dude slow played Aces? Called flop to let you bluff, same turn (plus he's getting worried that he may have screwed up and is now beat), river comes and you check, aces are good, so he value bets. Your check on the end says "I have no queen". What does 10/8 mean?
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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wait why on earth cant he have a missed draw? this is the easiest call of all time...
You say villain is 'good' and his sizing makes it look like you are being value bet to death, looks like KQ/AQ/set...if this is true then why cant he also have a bluff? you suggest that villain is good but that he is completely incapable of balance in a simple spot.
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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This is going to sound really out there but it's based on Miffed's thoughts about his range.
I was half-drunk and thinking about this hand last night. If we believe he never has a set (i.e. would have raised flop or turn) which leaves him with better Qx hands and a small % of bluffs could we turn trips into a bluff here?
This is just solely on miff's interpretation of his range, and then fact villain probably thinks we'd never c/shove a worse made hand therefore we're repping AQ/sets(boats)/air which I think at the very least gets KQ (half the combos in his hand range) to fold. I also think it's a definite possibly we could check a FH here on this board texture and river card.
aight, time to drink some more
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far as villain's betsize on the river, I'd expect him to size it based on what he thinks hero has, which looks a lot like a pp jj-88.
I also think hero is usually beat here but i think it's close enough for a call.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
This is going to sound really out there but it's based on Miffed's thoughts about his range.
I was half-drunk and thinking about this hand last night. If we believe he never has a set (i.e. would have raised flop or turn) which leaves him with better Qx hands and a small % of bluffs could we turn trips into a bluff here?
This is just solely on miff's interpretation of his range, and then fact villain probably thinks we'd never c/shove a worse made hand therefore we're repping AQ/sets(boats)/air which I think at the very least gets KQ (half the combos in his hand range) to fold. I also think it's a definite possibly we could check a FH here on this board texture and river card.
aight, time to drink some more
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kq and aq will not fold to a shove, it's also possible he's played a set slowly up to this point, there's little merit in turning our hand into a bluff, just check call and reap the profit.
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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Also miffed you can find wayyyyy better pictures of cheryl cole to have as your pic!
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ATOTHEC101
Also miffed you can find wayyyyy better pictures of cheryl cole to have as your pic!
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cheryl in leather = +ev IMO
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