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River value bet here? (board isnt pretty)

  
 
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Miffed22001
Old 02-02-2010, 09:58 PM     Post subject: River value bet here? (board isnt pretty) #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 11/8/2.7 agg over about 400 hands
My image in this session is 16/14 - i have 3bet a lot of MP openers vs the UTG limping fish so i have an aggro image.
On the flop i think my hand range is 40% flush/30% set/30% combo of tp good FD.
Im expecting a set to get it in on the flop, 2 pair to call it down and a small flush to call it down too. Once i dont get c/r all in on the turn i believe their is a thin value bet against his range - AxKs makes a crying call possibly.
I also hate a turn shove as it allows him to make as few mistakes as possible - i think a set can fold to my flop raise turn shove. Right/ wrong?


No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($110.90)
Hero (Button) ($107.55)
SB ($94.10)
BB ($103)
UTG ($32.90)
UTG+1 ($126.20)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($114.80)
MP3 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 10, 8
UTG calls $1, 3 folds, MP3 bets $4, 1 fold, Hero calls $4, 2 folds, UTG calls $3

Flop: ($13.50) A, J, 5 (3 players)
UTG checks, MP3 bets $7, Hero raises $20, 1 fold, MP3 calls $13

Turn: ($53.50) 10 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $26, MP3 calls $26

River: ($105.50) A (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $23???

Total pot: $205.50
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Deanglow
Old 02-03-2010, 01:46 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 why are you getting cute? He has a hand he is calling with so shove
 
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daven
Old 02-03-2010, 06:35 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 i like betting turn bigger, hope for Ks and he's calling near to pot
as played shove river
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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badgers
Old 02-03-2010, 10:42 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Not betting turn bigger is a big mistake imo. Yes he can maybe get away from sets, but let's be honest how many full ring players make big folds with sets regularly and how many just say "F**k it I'm all in I have a set.."? If anything, betting smaller allows him to make fewer mistakes than the big bet, since he's getting 3:1 with 5:1 including implied, which is better than the odds he needs to draw out with a set.
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wakeup
Old 02-05-2010, 09:14 AM #5 (permalink)  
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dont think he ever folds a set on the turn, maybe AK though

shipp river, AK gunna find it hard to fold
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Miffed22001
Old 02-07-2010, 12:37 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 anyone suprised he didnt get JJJ all in on an earlier street?
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