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To raise the river or not to...

  
 
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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 11-02-2006, 02:43 AM     Post subject: To raise the river or not to... #1 (permalink)  
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Opp. is a regular and runs at 13/8 pf and aggressive postflop. What hands can call? If he has a Jack I'm willing to pay it off but I'm not sure a raise has any value at all here.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($157.05)
SB ($103.20)
BB ($32.95)
UTG ($13)
UTG+1 ($108.50)
MP1 ($99.15)
Hero ($99)
CO ($67)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, A.
2 folds, MP1 raises to $4, Hero raises to $11, 4 folds, MP1 calls $7.

Flop: ($23.50) J, J, 3 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $14, MP1 calls $14.

Turn: ($51.50) 7 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($51.50) 3 (2 players)
MP1 bets $30, Hero.?
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TerryToma
Old 11-02-2006, 03:19 AM #2 (permalink)  
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just call, i think only a boat would call a substantial raise. KK/QQ might call a minraise. I think its a lower pocket pair like 77-TT.
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KoRnholio
Old 11-02-2006, 05:01 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 I think I just call here.
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dpe8598
Old 11-02-2006, 05:09 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Forget the river, raise the turn
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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 11-02-2006, 06:02 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dpe8598
Forget the river, raise the turn
Why?

Edit:
Instead of my one word answer I'll tell you why I shouldnt. This is almost exactly how I play AK/JJ/SCs (if I'm feeling frisky). If he has a weak hand 88/99/TT/AK I don't want him to fold. Sure he could hit a 2 outer, but that's the way things go sometimes. He called getting no odds on the flop anyways. So by checking not only does he not fold a weak hand that thought i was fos, I induce a bluff by a worse hand and make money that way.
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Renton
Old 11-02-2006, 06:21 AM #6 (permalink)  
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 he never has a jack if you raise more preflop

that was an enormous mistake, and against a decent regular like him, you are basically giving up all of your postflop expectation by reraising so small.
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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 11-02-2006, 06:25 AM #7 (permalink)  
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How much do you raise here?
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martindcx1e
Old 11-02-2006, 06:29 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
he never has a jack if you raise more preflop

that was an enormous mistake, and against a decent regular like him, you are basically giving up all of your postflop expectation by reraising so small.
what do you raise to? like 16?

Also, if we think we can extract more $ out of KK/QQ, then we should bet the turn. It's a WA/WB situation for sure, but the time to go passive in those spots is when it is not very likely that a worse hand will call. If we think KK/QQ calls then we should bet. Otherwise shut down IMO.

Oh ya...don't raise river.
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Miffed22001
Old 11-02-2006, 08:18 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 standard river call.
Raise more preflop, bet the turn, lets get him to stack off with KK/QQ.
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