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Pelion
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04-23-2006, 05:39 PM
Post subject: QQ overpair faces flop allin.
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Villain seems loose/ slightly aggressive but Ive played less than 10 hands with him.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP1 ($9.90)
MP2 ($4)
Hero ($19.50)
Button ($2.30)
SB ($13.65)
BB ($4.90)
UTG ($3.80)
UTG+1 ($10.25)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q , Q . MP2 posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.5, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.5, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.
Flop: ($3.25) 4, 9 , 2 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8.75 (All-In),Hero...
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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vegascoop
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 224
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Totally read, game decision. At NL10 at UB I would call this and be good enough times for it to be +EV. At NL25, this would now be a fold for me. A lot more people seem to push with the goods to make it look like a donk bluff.
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martindcx1e
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04-24-2006, 02:10 AM
Post subject: Re: QQ overpair faces flop allin.
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#3 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
Villain seems loose/ slightly aggressive but Ive played less than 10 hands with him.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP1 ($9.90)
MP2 ($4)
Hero ($19.50)
Button ($2.30)
SB ($13.65)
BB ($4.90)
UTG ($3.80)
UTG+1 ($10.25)
Preflop: Hero is CO with Q , Q . MP2 posts a blind of $0.10.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.5, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.5, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $1.
Flop: ($3.25) 4 , 9 , 2 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $8.75 (All-In),Hero... |
I think that open push looks like an overpair. Too bad you haven't seen how he plays AA-KK yet.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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dev
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: swonging and swonging
Posts: 1,550
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What a wierd move...
I think I call here.
If it's an overpair, you're 50/50 (AA/KK vs JJ/TT QQ is neutral)
Any set checks here or bets just enough to keep a decent hand in.
Could just be bullying (you said lagg)
A lot of times this is a draw, but there aren't any decent draws. Maybe he has a backdoor flush, an over and an inside straight (A5 or A3)
Maybe he's just got two overs and sees a PR and a rag board.
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DaHorror
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 616
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Man I hate those moves, as it seems like way too often you're up against Aces (since there were no others in the pot there was no reason for him to reraise preflop).
But there are just too many times that this is any other pair or AK to lay it down at $10 NL...especially against a 'slightly' LAG.
Almost a totally read/feel based call/fold you have to make.
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WildBobAA
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: lol i dunno
Posts: 1,811
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i call
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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Call
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
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Fold. You're up against an over TT-AA 75% of the time but you're also up against a set enough times for it to be -EV.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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I call
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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I call
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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WhooFleuryScores
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Massachusetts
Posts: 918
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At NL25 and NL50 I lay it down.NL10?............about even money.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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insta-call
Fish dont overplay sets like this
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
insta-call
Fish dont overplay sets like this
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And if he's trapping with AA/KK preflop, he continues to do so at the flop.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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calllllllllll
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by biondino
Fold. You're up against an over TT-AA 75% of the time but you're also up against a set enough times for it to be -EV.
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Statisitics don't matter (whether correct or not) so much as lines. Who on earth is open pushing a set or two pair, etc here. I think this is an easy call, op is desperate and wants a fold.
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LOL OPERATIONS
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joshuadzl
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Seattle, Wa
Posts: 287
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I'm going to say call. I'm putting him ona n under pair that didn't hit a set here. I gotta figure his logic is hey, I got 8s or something like that, his AK/AQ/AJ didn't hit, and I'm sure he doesn't have a 9. Due to the fact hes out of position, he wants to put the pressure on right away and throw the position card out the window. Yeah, based on preflop, I definitely call this hand.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I must say, logically this has to be a set. How can he assume that you don't have an overpair, he can't.
I think i fold, people are illogical at $10 NL, but not enough of the time for this to be a call. Although if you did call i wouldn't blame you in the slightest.
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DaHorror
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 616
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I guess we'll never know!
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Stripclubjunkie
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Stripclubs
Posts: 1,293
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Id call in a heartbeat...
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xX zorrito Xx
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Wellington, FL
Posts: 300
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defenite call... he would've re raised preflop with KK or AA...
don't see why someone would play a set like that...
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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So I'm dying to know what happened Pelion.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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he isn't responding because he folded the most obvious call evar!
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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I agree that this is a definite call for the reasons people have already given. AA and KK will reraise preflop and a set just isnt pushing here. At $10nl Ive been in this situation plenty of times, and I cant remember a time where they had me beat with and overpair, you almost always see AK, AQ 0r a lower PP that didnt hit.
Call.
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ProZachNation
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Over there!
Posts: 801
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AT 10NL this is at least an even money call
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
I didn't think its Bold to bang some chick with my bro. but i guess so... thats +EV in my book.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gabe
he isn't responding because he folded the most obvious call evar!
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lol. Come on Pelion - fess up! Did you do it??
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Call without hesitation. Callity call call.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Sorry I folded. I hated it but I remembered Rentons thread. Ive also called a few of these recently and theyve been AA or a set.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
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RiverMonkey
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 446
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This is opponent/read dependent, not stakes-dependent.
Not sure why people want to group all players at a given limit together and say things like 'at 25NL, this is a call every time'.
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KY_Ace
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by biondino
Fold. You're up against an over TT-AA 75% of the time but you're also up against a set enough times for it to be -EV.
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You can rule out AA and probably KK too from the preflop action, this is an easy call for me at any limit, it's not even 3xpot. Would you be prepared to call $2 on the flop and an All-in on the turn, of course!! Same amount of $$, the villain just decided to put it in on the flop instead of gradually, that's usually a sign of weakness. This looks like TT or JJ not wanting you to catch an over with AK. Could also be an AK or AQ bluff. You have to be willing to put the rest of your chips in on a good flop when the pot is more than 1/4 of your stack.
If I flop an Overpair or TPTK with AK I am willing to lose about 5x the size of the pot on the flop in the hand if I'm up against a hidden hand that beats me. Give or take depending on how much I beat the board by with an overpair. I am willing to lose more with AA on a 7 high flop than I am willing ot lose with KK on a Q high flop ( where the only legit hand I beat is AQ ). I also adjust for the aggressiveness factor of the opponent. 5x the pot size is just a starting point. I'll rarely call 10x the pot size or more with unimprooved AA unless I have a very strong read. On the other hand I'll have my whole stack in by the river if I'm betting with AA and they're just calling with a smaller pair. There's a big difference between betting when you're ahead and calling when you're unsure, that latter is usually bleeding away chips.
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{solicitation URL removed by Xianti}
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DaHorror
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 616
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I don't think you can rule out AA just because of the preflop action. The initial raiser is UTG, and no one else is in the hand, so he elects to just call Pelion's reraise figuring him for KK/QQ and go from there. An all undercard flop is a perfect place to push the flop with AA vs. KK here as KK is very unlikely to get away from his hand...add the fact that it looks like a dumbass bluff et voila.
This type of AA vs. KK play is becoming more frequent, even at the lower levels. What probably makes it profitable is the fact that TT-QQ (and sometimes any other pair) will make the same play, and often enough so will a missed AK...making this almost an insta-call for KK, since there are so many more hands that you beat than that beat KK.
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by RiverMonkey
This is opponent/read dependent, not stakes-dependent.
Not sure why people want to group all players at a given limit together and say things like 'at 25NL, this is a call every time'.
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Why? Because you can't do very well at any level of online poker without having a general expectation of how the majority of players will play. Player turnover is too high, and when you add in multi-tabling and action that occurs right after joining a table, it's just not always possible to base all your decisions on reads. Sometimes you have to go on instinct, and that instinct is formed by playing a lot of the same general types of players at the same stakes. Reads can come later - sometimes because somebody does something contrary to your expectation of the play at those stakes.
In fact, if you played enough tables for a lot of hours, you could really clean up just by understanding general player behavior at your stakes, and *never* putting together individual reads. It's sort of like the game theory approach to poker - you're playing statistics, not individuals. Online poker is perfectly suited to this style because you can play as many different opponents at as many tables as you want.
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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good post dale, i think making general assumptions about $25nl fish is a great idea because most bad players are bad for the same reasons
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaHorror
I don't think you can rule out AA just because of the preflop action. The initial raiser is UTG, and no one else is in the hand, so he elects to just call Pelion's reraise figuring him for KK/QQ and go from there. An all undercard flop is a perfect place to push the flop with AA vs. KK here as KK is very unlikely to get away from his hand...add the fact that it looks like a dumbass bluff et voila.
This type of AA vs. KK play is becoming more frequent, even at the lower levels. What probably makes it profitable is the fact that TT-QQ (and sometimes any other pair) will make the same play, and often enough so will a missed AK...making this almost an insta-call for KK, since there are so many more hands that you beat than that beat KK.
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This is giving the AVERAGE $10nl player waaaay too much credit. Preflop Ive seen people limp AA/KK in EP and call a raise, but Ive never seen a raise/call. If they are raising with AA or KK then they are almost always 3 betting a reraise. They arent going to put a reraise on QQ+ and if they did then they would 3 bet becuase they know that with those hands the reraiser will call. I really dont think this play is very frequent at all as playing 20k hands at $25nl or lower I dont recall seeing this ever be a better hand. You will most likely see a pocket pair less than 9 that didnt hit, or AJ+
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DaHorror
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 616
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I don't disagree - I'm just saying that you can't completely rule it out...I still think it's probably an insta-call with all the other possible hands you listed that make the same play and are really a bluff/prayer.
And you're right - I shouldn't say 'frequent' - but I have seen it a few times recently (and really only recently) at $10 NL.
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaHorror
I don't disagree - I'm just saying that you can't completely rule it out...I still think it's probably an insta-call with all the other possible hands you listed that make the same play and are really a bluff/prayer.
And you're right - I shouldn't say 'frequent' - but I have seen it a few times recently (and really only recently) at $10 NL.
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I agree that it is definitely a possibility, I just feel that although it may happen, you are going to see AA/KK or a set much much much less than any other combination of cards, making a call profitable.
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wylted
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okay this guy has AA or KK he came to the table and made a few llose plays early for advertisement purposes and now he is trying to capitalise on his weak image with a all in hoping you call a fold is the right move
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GatorJH
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: HotLanta
Posts: 3,179
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wylted
okay this guy has AA or KK he came to the table and made a few llose plays early for advertisement purposes and now he is trying to capitalise on his weak image with a all in hoping you call a fold is the right move
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Overthinking things like that is going to cost you a TON of money. A call here is +EV at just about any level.
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Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
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dpe8598
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 261
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Definite call. Also, anyone who wanted to know what happened is being far too results oriented. I don't care if he was beat or not, this is a call.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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I really learned from experience that this is RARE with a made hand. With a made hand they like to slowly extract value.. this is very often a draw or a weaker, unsure hand.
But the thing is, they tend to do it in position, or a check/raise all-in.. not so much push before anything. Here it might actually be aces. If there was a possible flush draw on the board, that makes this call a lot easier, lol. You raised him preflop, maybe he forgot to reraise and figures you'll call him on the flop. The only thing this is consistent with is aces. That's not to say it couldn't be *anything*.. but you need a read to know this.
I'd only fold this if I just started playing for the day.. don't want to give away a stack at the start to aces, that would ruin my mood way more than destacking a fish would. After a few cycles around the table, getting in my game.. I'm calling this 
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dpe8598
anyone who wanted to know what happened is being far too results oriented. I don't care if he was beat or not, this is a call.
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This kind of attitude is getting more common and I feel it is totally wrong.
I am a physicist at the moment. What we do is we make up theories and then we test them by experiment.
The whole "results oriented" question has IMHO been taken totally out of context. Poker is a statistical game, so long term expectations matter more than short term results. That covers the times when you get allin with top set Vs a flush draw and lose just as well as it covers the time you get allin with KK (correctly expecting QQ, AK) against AA and lose.
However, I belive the "results oriented" argument is used to ignore too much useful information our opponenents give us. In this case It is very important to know if our opponenent made this play with AA, 99 or AK because it gives us information about the way they may play other hands in future.
In order to decide if the default response to this play should be a call or a fold, we need to start collecting data on what sort of cards this play is generally made with. We MUST be results oriented if we are to improve under these circumstances (however we must not get results oriented about the random luck factor of the game when we get it in with the best hand).
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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gabe
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: trying to live
Posts: 7,964
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pelion,
alot of people have seen it so many times they know the answer, though. the people that usually say 'thats results oriented to get the answer' are usually the ones that have seen enough to know the answer already.
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dpe8598
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 261
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Exactly Gabe. Also, sure I want to know what a particular player will do in a particular circumstance, so I want to know what he has and I will add that to my info. This is a limited info game. Nonetheless, for the purposes of this forum where we are discussing what are generally the right moves to make in a situation, waiting in anticipation to see what happened so that we can see if we are "right" is totally rediculous.
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natdang
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Flush
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Los Angeles
Posts: 380
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Call. The "tight" in me says let it go, but yeah, fish try to be cute with big hands here, unless they've been reading FTR and learned the "overbet to look fishy" move. But then theyre not fish anymore.
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