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QQ on AKx flop

  
 
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AFchung
Old 07-11-2009, 11:21 AM     Post subject: QQ on AKx flop #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 12/5 and 3bets pretty frequently out of the blinds. He's only folded his BB to steal 70% of the time

River was probably a really bad call but I hate when they gay bet like that.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG+1 ($48.70)
MP1 ($66.25)
MP2 ($66.10)
MP3 ($67.95)
CO ($52.80)
Hero (Button) ($61.15)
SB ($18.45)
BB ($50.90)
UTG ($42.45)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
6 folds, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, BB raises to $4.50, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($9.25) A, 3, K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($9.25) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $5.50, Hero calls $5.50

River: ($20.25) 10 (2 players)
BB bets $8.50, Hero calls $8.50

Total pot: $37.25 | Rake: $1.80
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Miffed22001
Old 07-11-2009, 12:42 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 River is a clear fold.

In a BTN/BB battle id probably 4bet this and be prepared to get it in.
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Old 07-11-2009, 12:49 PM #3 (permalink)  
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c/f turn
the reason he checked flop is because he has a hand that he wants to show down

so ok, maybe he has A5s, maybe he has KTs
it's definitely a hand that beats yours because if I were him I'd probably bet my 55 and my 9c6c
ok, fine let's say he has something weird
the turn card doesn't fucking help either, because even a hand like JsJd has outs against you

I just don't see him playing a hand that is worse this way
it's not like he expects you to fold to 1/2 psb with anything that has any kind of equity, probably not even one diamond unless it's between 6 and T

while I wouldn't be really surprised if he showed you the nuts, my feeling is that he has a marginal hand that he's betting for thin value
so when you get to the river you should shove all in...
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golfguy37
Old 07-11-2009, 12:50 PM #4 (permalink)  
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When he checks to you, he's pretty much saying he has 10s Js or Qs unless he is trying to slowplay a huge set or something.

Top 30% of hands includes {55+,A2s+,K5s+,Q7s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J 9o+}

That seems like a pretty wide range but we'll go with it. On teh flop, he's checking all Pocket Pairs because he puts you on an ace or a king at least. He's also checking missed flops and maybe AK. Purely based on his range your a ahead of his range 43% of the time so this is a check-fold postflop. You probably should have shoved preflop as your ahead of almost all of his range as a 72% favorite so you wouldn't be faced with this situation.
 
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Old 07-11-2009, 12:50 PM #5 (permalink)  
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and lidog 4b/get it in with the read given
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Miffed22001
Old 07-11-2009, 01:37 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
and lidog 4b/get it in with the read given
you dont think hes getting it in with JJ/TT pre 100% of the time.
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Old 07-11-2009, 01:53 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
and lidog 4b/get it in with the read given
you dont think hes getting it in with JJ/TT pre 100% of the time.
if he 3bs them he gets it in
that's why I said 4b/get it in

and if he has a really tight 5b range, then he's probably polarizing his 3b range hardcore to {bluffs} and {QQ+,AK} so if he's really active in defending his blinds, he's going to fold to a 4b a lot of the time, and we still have 40% equity vs. his range to call it off anyway so it's EV+ as long as he 3b bluffs

so 4b/get it in is unexploitable with QQ in this spot no matter what his calling range is
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daven
Old 07-11-2009, 02:53 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 with the described dynamic I probably 4-bet pre with a funny range that includes QQ. I mean, you're going to be happy to get it in on flops without an A or K as played, right, so you obviously think you're ahead.

As played, dude, the turn was a clear fold.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Deanglow
Old 07-11-2009, 03:12 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 4bet preflop and postflop is very very spewy
 
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AFchung
Old 07-12-2009, 10:50 PM #10 (permalink)  
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say we 4bet to 11.5 and then he flats (unlikely) and this flop comes out. would we just be folding to any bet?

what about if only one A or K came out?
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Old 07-13-2009, 08:37 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by AFchung
say we 4bet to 11.5 and then he flats (unlikely) and this flop comes out. would we just be folding to any bet?

what about if only one A or K came out?
AKx we just fold
not sure about Kxx, but I'm leaning to folding Axx
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hangchiong
Old 07-13-2009, 01:30 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
say we 4bet to 11.5 and then he flats (unlikely) and this flop comes out. would we just be folding to any bet?

what about if only one A or K came out?
Such a gay/bad 4bet call from villain then.Well,what range of his hands can he possibly 4bet call OOP here that we beat when an Ace or a King comes out?Mind you,people tend to 3bet light,but not 4bet call OOP from a regular TaGG.
We hope for a cheap showdown.
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