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Sashimi
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06-17-2007, 05:19 PM
Post subject: Pushing this river?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 29
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Reads: Villan first showed up at my table with a red mark (means I have tagged him a fish), but I had no notes on him. I dunno why but he leaves after just two hands and sits down at another table where he is busted in less than 5 minutes. He immedieately sits down at two other tables, but this time with half stacks only. I assume he is a big fish and my tables are pretty dry at the moment so I join the waitlists and are soon seated at his tables.
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
9 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: $123.25
UTG+1: $77
MP1: $66
MP2: $174
MP3: $154
CO: $59.40
Button: $108.20
Hero: $233
BB: $134
Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is SB with 9  T 
3 folds, MP2 calls, 3 folds, Hero calls, BB checks.
Flop: 6  7  8 ($6, 3 players)
Hero bets $4, BB calls, MP2 folds.
Turn: Q ($14, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks.
River: 7 ($14, 2 players)
Hero bets $13, BB raises to $26, Hero ???
My plan to check-raise the turn failed, but now he is min-raising the river? Push or call?
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overflow
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 356
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Easy push, if villian isn't leading out behind your check on the turn, he's unlikely to have a set or two pair I'm putting him on exactly A7 here, and I'll overshove the river every time. Tons of hands you're beating call you, 45, 59, any 7, TT, 99 for an open ender that missed if he thinks your cbet was a semi-bluff with overs and that you didn't have the Q when you checked the turn. You're going to split the pot if he's got exactly T9, and you're only losing to 77,QQ,88,Q7,87,76,66. Easy push.
A good rule of thumb is always try to get the money in when there are more likely hands he's holding that he'll call with when he's beat than beat you. Especially when his play on every street is screaming "I have a weak pair or a missed draw".
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Sashimi
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 29
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Good analysis. I did put him on a wide hand range there, and I do concur pushing is best here. Maybe I am being a little results-oriented here. After this hand was played he showed my original assumption was correct as he made the most horrendous plays i've seen in quite a while. He busted on both tables after about 15 minutes. Of course I didn't get to be the lucky one breaking him though 
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SHAKE
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 278
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absolutly no way he has a boat here. I think overflow said it better. :0
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Sashimi
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 29
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Yes I agree that most likely he wouldn't have had it, but I would not go as far as "absolutely no way". There are players who will play sets very passively on straight of flush boards until they fill up, or fish who just play passive to be "deceptive" (slowplaying), but it's a rare breed indeed. Anyway, a fish with completely irrational behaviour could have a boat, can't rule it out. But question is, does it matter? I think I have to agree it doesn't.
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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get the money in. and dont go for turn check raise if you have him labled as a fish. (im assuming this probably is going to mean loose passive)
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overflow
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Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 356
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Ez's right, I was thinking about this myself after re-reading the hand, 75% to 100% of the pot on the turn. Free cards make for bad decision-making situations on later streets when scare cards come. If you're really worried about the pair on board, c/c the river (although this play will probably cost you more than it will save you).
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Sashimi
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 29
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Yes, I also think you guys summed it up pretty good. I still believe pushing the river is best here, actually Im convinced it is. The turn check was a major screwup (fish doesn't necessarily mean loose passive in my book though, there are a lot of crazy maniac fish out there as well), not only because it put me in a tough spot at the river but because I probably would have made him fold a hand he would have called two bets with.
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sashimi
Yes, I also think you guys summed it up pretty good. I still believe pushing the river is best here, actually Im convinced it is. The turn check was a major screwup (fish doesn't necessarily mean loose passive in my book though, there are a lot of crazy maniac fish out there as well), not only because it put me in a tough spot at the river but because I probably would have made him fold a hand he would have called two bets with.
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you should really get PO or PT so you know your opponets better. or have even more then just fish as a label.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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I'd just call actually.. first reason is that he minraises the river, tilts his hand range towards the ones that beat us. I'd expect to see a two pair boat up on the river more than a set boating up because he didn't bet the turn, but who knows, might be caution cuz of the 3 straight or a weirdish slowplay or whatever.
Second most important reason, if I read stack sizes properly that'd be quite an overshove of an extra $100.. if effective stack sizes were smaller I'd be more inclined to push, now it just seems due to the large amount of $ left to shove it'd tilt his calling range towards the range that beats us again..
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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Sashimi
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 29
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Quote:
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you should really get PO or PT so you know your opponets better. or have even more then just fish as a label.
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LOL I know I didn't have lot of info to go on and I do have PT and use it but I had no hands on him so Im guessing I have played him before at another stake since I use different databases for different stakes. I usually have far more extended notes on players after a while but marking players is a quick method of keeping track of bad players for me. It may no be 100% reliable but as soon as I see someone do a couple of clearly donkish plays I but them with a red mark as I will be able to recognize him again any time he plays. I may happen to revise my opinion later, but more often not. Later it would show my assumption was correct (as said earlier) as his game was absolutely atrocious and I made several notes of him. But when you are playing a lot of tables and you see like some totally random guy for your first hand stacking off with AToff preflop for full stacks you won't be able to make extended notes on him, but if you just make sure to mark/note him in some way you WILL notice his screename when he appears next time.
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