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preferred line here?

  
 
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pantherhound
Old 04-21-2006, 01:43 PM     Post subject: preferred line here? #1 (permalink)  
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 1st hand after moving down to $50NL. No reads. Odds to call PF in position for flush possibilities?

------HAND 5------
Game #2104232284: Hold'em NL ($0.25/$0.50) - 2006/04/21 - 14:34:53 (UK)
Table "Kapelle" Seat 10 is the button.
Seat 1: Key_33 ($39 in chips)
Seat 2: drizner ($60.70 in chips)
Seat 3: Huntsman2 ($38.02 in chips)
Seat 4: 1punch ($32.78 in chips)
Seat 5: Scrath ($95.84 in chips)
Seat 6: Orignac ($21.50 in chips)
Seat 7: Vicman ($50 in chips)
Seat 8: ranger86 ($39.80 in chips)
Seat 9: Smiffy44 ($50 in chips)
Seat 10: Gondal ($43.78 in chips)
Key_33: posts small blind $0.25
drizner: posts big blind $0.50
Vicman: posts big blind $0.50
Smiffy44: posts big blind $0.50
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to Smiffy44 [Qc Kc]
Huntsman2: folds
1punch: folds
Scrath: folds
Orignac: folds
Vicman: checks
ranger86: calls $0.50
Smiffy44: checks
Gondal: folds
Key_33: raises to $3
drizner: folds
Vicman: calls $2.50
ranger86: calls $2.50
Smiffy44: calls $2.50
----- FLOP ----- [Ks 9c 4c]
Key_33: checks
Vicman: checks
ranger86: checks
Smiffy44: ?
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joshuadzl
Old 04-21-2006, 02:42 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Thats a big raise that everyone is calling. I'm a little catious but I'm still betting my flops when I feel its probable I'm ahead. Half pot, if they were just waiting to CR and come over the top big, then I probably dump it.
 
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Jay67s
Old 04-21-2006, 03:21 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshuadzl
Thats a big raise that everyone is calling. I'm a little catious but I'm still betting my flops when I feel its probable I'm ahead. Half pot, if they were just waiting to CR and come over the top big, then I probably dump it.
Caution is good here, but you have TPGK, second nut flush draw, and 5 outs to 2 pair or better. If you get reraised I wouldn't automatically fold here. AK and AA are going to reraise, you have lots of outs against those hands. You have to determine that based on the size of the reraise. A push may get me to fold. A minimun reraise or a little more, I probably will call.
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joshuadzl
Old 04-21-2006, 05:41 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay67s
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshuadzl
Thats a big raise that everyone is calling. I'm a little catious but I'm still betting my flops when I feel its probable I'm ahead. Half pot, if they were just waiting to CR and come over the top big, then I probably dump it.
Caution is good here, but you have TPGK, second nut flush draw, and 5 outs to 2 pair or better. If you get reraised I wouldn't automatically fold here. AK and AA are going to reraise, you have lots of outs against those hands. You have to determine that based on the size of the reraise. A push may get me to fold. A minimun reraise or a little more, I probably will call.
I agree with you, I should of clarified a bit more. By reraise I meant a manly raise, not a pussy raise.
 
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KoRnholio
Old 04-21-2006, 10:34 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 Yeah a 1/2-2/3 pot bet looks good.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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Renton
Old 04-21-2006, 11:06 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshuadzl
Thats a big raise that everyone is calling. I'm a little catious but I'm still betting my flops when I feel its probable I'm ahead. Half pot, if they were just waiting to CR and come over the top big, then I probably dump it.
Are you serious?

How do you dump a hand where your draw is strong enough to go all-in against just about any hand and come out ahead?

You even have decent equity (25% maybe?) against the nuts.

You are better than even money to beat AA and theres a shit ton of dead money from the preflop action.

I would probably bet about 3/4 of the pot and call an all in c/r. If the first player had bet and got callers I'd push this.
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dev
Old 04-21-2006, 11:16 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I'm with Renton.
This is why we have bankroll management, right? We don't have to play scared. We might not have the best hand right now, but we're good percentage-wise. Any fold equity and we're golden.

Chances are $10 takes it down, but if not:
There's 12.75 in the pot. One villian has $47 behind, the others have about $35. If we bet ten, and one of the $35s goes in, it's $25 to call into a 57.75 pot. In the other case, it's $27 to call into a $79.75 pot.
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joshuadzl
Old 04-21-2006, 11:32 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshuadzl
Thats a big raise that everyone is calling. I'm a little catious but I'm still betting my flops when I feel its probable I'm ahead. Half pot, if they were just waiting to CR and come over the top big, then I probably dump it.
Are you serious?

How do you dump a hand where your draw is strong enough to go all-in against just about any hand and come out ahead?

You even have decent equity (25% maybe?) against the nuts.

You are better than even money to beat AA and theres a shit ton of dead money from the preflop action.

I would probably bet about 3/4 of the pot and call an all in c/r. If the first player had bet and got callers I'd push this.
I'm dead even with an overpair, a 45/55 under vs 2pair with no holding club, and a 30/70 under vs a set. Betting out 3/4 is fine, but I'm not calling ai if I can put my opps on a set with a C/R.

Is AA not reraising preflop? Is KK not reraising preflop? Is any pocket pair Queens or below cold calling? Hard for me to put anyone but Key on AA or KK, but I could see any of them having a low pocket pair. A C/R allin is either the Aces (which I'll call) or a set. I find 2pair rather unlikely though. If a opp pushes on say AJ or AT, then we have a significant edge of 60/40. Outside of a retard, I can't put opponents on any said hand we can beat with a significant edge. Seems I'm hoping for aces and a coinflip if I'm up against any good player. If I'm way off here though, please, I want to know. I'd rather be wrong and learn from it then be wrong and ignored.
 
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dev
Old 04-21-2006, 11:38 PM #9 (permalink)  
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CR-AI with a flush draw is a possibility, albeit a small one. Then again, a set is a small possibility too.
Check out my self-deprecation here!
 
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Renton
Old 04-22-2006, 01:39 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 at these stakes a c/r is a pair of kings a LOT.
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dev
Old 04-22-2006, 05:36 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Really? So I can stop respecting CRs so much?
Check out my self-deprecation here!
 
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Renton
Old 04-22-2006, 06:10 AM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dev
Really? So I can stop respecting CRs so much?
Maybe.

All I am saying is if you have AK and raise preflop in LP, getting one limpcaller and the flop is K37 rainbow and you get checked to, bet, and get minraised...

... you should almost always at least call and reevaluate on the turn.

People like to do this with missed hands like AJ because A) Its unlikely that you hit a K high flop, and B) Because they know tight-passives will fold a pair of Kings here sometimes. Give checkraises on the turn and river a whole lot more respect than on the flop. I, personally, will checkraise the flop with a very wide range of strength, mostly including strong draws.
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