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Tvashtri

02-14-2006, 05:12 PM Post subject: Pre-flop Decision

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 17

Seat 1: Firehat ($68.40 in chips)
Seat 2: Hero [KS,KH] ($126 in chips)
Seat 3: guywithoutathumb ($98.20 in chips)
Seat 5: seven17 ($54.50 in chips)
Seat 6: wanpec1 ($87 in chips)
Seat 7: D0wn2theroad ($72.70 in chips)
Seat 8: Nakaka ($98.50 in chips)
Seat 9: IBLUFF ($87 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Hero posts blind ($0.50), guywithoutathumb posts blind ($1).

PRE-FLOP
seven17 folds, wanpec1 folds, D0wn2theroad folds, Nakaka bets $4, IBLUFF folds, Firehat folds, Hero bets $12, guywithoutathumb folds, Nakaka bets $36, Hero ???

Guy just sat down, no reads. In a tourney there is no question to push.
But in ring only 3 hands I can think of make this re-raise, QQ-AA, and AA is the most likely to do so. Should you fold it? Can you fold it?

If you don't fold, do you call/raise/push?

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Rondavu

02-14-2006, 05:17 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Without a read I fold and look for a better spot. If the villain is a donk, you'll get the stack anyway. If the villain is good, you're behind. Not often do I fold KK preflop, but this may be the spot.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

WildBobAA

02-14-2006, 06:30 PM

#3 (permalink)

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I would not fold this at 100NL. I've had guys do this same play to me with AK and then put their stack in with it.

AHiltz

02-14-2006, 06:47 PM

#4 (permalink)

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No reads and 1 in 24 he has AA. I play for stacks. Call and push any non A flop.

Tvashtri

02-14-2006, 07:18 PM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2005

Posts: 17

Why call then push non-Ace flop? Isn't that just giving him a free chance to win?

If he has AK, then a K is very unlikely. If the Ace comes up, I lose. If the A doesnt come up, he will probably fold to any reasonably sized bet. If he has AA then chances are ill be all in by the river unless the board is really funky. If he has QQ then the pot could get frozen when an A falls, and could let him bluff me out.

Also, since I am out of position, I may be forced to make a continuation bet even if an Ace/Queen does fall, leaving me open to losing even more money if they hit TPTK/a set.

I dont see any real reason to call here instead of pushing, except that you might scare off QQ. Although, if QQ is making this sort of re-raise, they are probably prepared to go all the way.

WildBobAA

02-15-2006, 04:33 AM

#6 (permalink)

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Don't even think about folding KK preflop. Sammy Farha can't lay it down playing 80,000NL (high stakes poker episode last night) so you shouldn't either. (You just have to suck out like he did).

mxiu

02-15-2006, 05:48 AM

#7 (permalink)

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I don't fold KK preflop unless the opp has shown me their cards, and it happens to be AA. >_>

ChrisBCritter

02-15-2006, 06:24 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Villian has A8s.

PUSH!!!

Hey knucklehead! Bonk!

midas06

02-15-2006, 07:21 AM

#9 (permalink)

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If you don't have a read, assume that your ops are good unless they prove to you otherwise.

Fold it.

ChrisBCritter

02-15-2006, 07:27 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by midas06

If you don't have a read, assume that your ops are good unless they prove to you otherwise.

Fold it.

Tight/weak?? This is $100NL... not $400NL...

Hey knucklehead! Bonk!

midas06

02-15-2006, 08:12 AM

#11 (permalink)

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When I play nl, I'm borderline LAGG. I just think that you're good enough here to push.

I change my answer to see the flop and reevaluate from there.

Tvashtri

02-15-2006, 03:29 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by midas06

I change my answer to see the flop and reevaluate from there.

I guess I dont understand what flop could come that would give me a reasonable way out of the hand, except an Ace. And if it is an Ace, then he probably didnt have AA preflop, and I just let him beat me.

If the guy has AA, im probably all in by the river anyways, right? If the guy has AK, then i'm just giving him an opportunity to beat me/get out cheap if there is no A. If the guy has QQ, then an A/K freezes the pot/lets him bluff me/lets him get out cheap.

I'm in the small blind. I have to act first after the flop. Do I really want to just call here?

AHiltz

02-15-2006, 03:51 PM

#13 (permalink)

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A lot of donkies get married to any A preflop.

The 3 main ways to lose this hand are:
1) AA
2) Ax and an A hits the flop
3) pocket pair and hits a set

There's a 1 in 24 chance he holds AA when you hold KK
He only has about a 10% chance of hitting an A on the flop when he holds an A
He only has about a 10% chance to catch a set.

That's my reasoning behind calling and pushing any non A board.

Tvashtri

02-15-2006, 04:15 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by AHiltz

Ya, i agree that people can get married to bad hands pre-flop. But those people can normally let them go if they dont hit.

If he has Ax or a small PP, and I push, he can fold or call. If he folds, i win his 36 without giving him the chance to beat me. If he calls, then we are going all in when I am the favorite.

If i just call, and the flop comes with no A, I have to bet out. If he has Ax, then he folds and i win 36 after giving him the chance to beat me. If he has a small PP, then I either win 36 after giving him a chance to beat me, or we go all in when he is the favorite.

The only reason to call would be thinking that he would improve so that he would call a bet he wouldnt call pre-flop, yet still wouldnt beat my hand. The only time I can think of this happening is if he has JJ, and the flop is rags. And JJ reraising like this seems... odd, although possible.

nutsinho

02-15-2006, 04:40 PM

#15 (permalink)

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Hiltz-1 in 24 chance he has AA? that is the dumbest thing i have ever heard anyone say

Tva...if you like KK in this spot, the argument for calling and pushing non-Ace flop is solid. The only legit hand your oppo can have here is AA, but if you think the chances are good enough that he's a donk that you should continue, which is certainly a fair argument at 100nl and lower, then pushing non-ace flop is fine.
If he holds a PP QQ or worse, he will probably check it down with you postflop when an A flops but still call when the board is rags and you push
if he holds Ax and an ace flops, you only lose 1/3 of your stack instead of all of it
if you push preflop he will call anyway because he is semi-committed and obviously likes his hand. An ace hits a five card board more times than it hits a 3 card board....

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WildBobAA

02-15-2006, 06:27 PM

#16 (permalink)

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Calling and pushing any non-A flop is really bad. If the flop comes Qxx and the guy has JJ, you're not getting the rest of his stack. The only thing this does is cost you money from worse hands.

Tvashtri

02-15-2006, 06:31 PM

#17 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nutsinho

if you push preflop he will call anyway because he is semi-committed and obviously likes his hand. An ace hits a five card board more times than it hits a 3 card board....

Ya, i'll buy that its a safer play to call->push, but i dunno if its the better play.

Whats better, a $72 pot with them having 3 cards to catch an Ace, or a $197 pot with them having 5 cards to catch an Ace?

AK has a 30% chance to beat KK with 5 cards, and about a 15% chance to beat KK with 3 cards.

So,
0.85*72 = 61 / 36 = $1.69 expected per $1 invested
0.70*197 = 140 / 98.5 = $1.42 expected per $1 invested

Ya, so assuming he has AK, i guess call->push seems like the better play in the long run. But if he has JJ/QQ?

nutsinho

02-15-2006, 09:27 PM

#18 (permalink)

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well bob is right, just pushing preflop is best if you dont think he has aces most of the time.
some people dont handle big losses very well so this is just another option not usually much different in ev but lower in variance

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Irisheyes

02-15-2006, 10:13 PM

#19 (permalink)

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Another reason to push preflop is that you want to isolate just one guy. You don't want to call and have maybe two of them on the flop.

If the table is tight generally, then I fold.

Lukie

02-16-2006, 02:59 AM

#20 (permalink)

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Calling here is horrible IMO. There's going to be room for like 1 pot sized bet on the flop, so if you want to get it allin, now's the chance. Against an unknown at NL100, I think this is clearly the right situation.

Push > fold > call. I don't see how it's ever right to call here...

bigredhoss

02-16-2006, 03:10 AM

#21 (permalink)

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Push all day

calling is terrible as mentioned

to those who said fold without a read....you need a read to fold Kings preflop, not a read to call an allin with them.

WildBobAA

02-16-2006, 04:01 AM

#22 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigredhoss

you need a read to fold Kings preflop, not a read to call an allin with them.

this is a great post

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