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Pot odds or bad math?

  
 
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Fnord
Old 11-28-2007, 06:31 AM     Post subject: Pot odds or bad math? #1 (permalink)  
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Simple enough hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($186.25)
CO ($45.25)
Button ($103)
SB ($196.30)
Fnord ($143)
UTG ($214)

Preflop: Fnord is BB with 7, 9.
2 folds, CO raises to $8, Button calls $8, 1 fold, Fnord calls $6.

Flop: ($25) 6, 5, 7 (3 players)
Fnord checks, CO bets $20, Button calls $20, Fnord calls $20.

Turn: ($85) 2 (3 players)
Fnord checks, CO bets $17.25 (All-In), Button folds, Fnord calls $17.25.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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wufwugy
Old 11-28-2007, 06:36 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 That's some loose ass preflop calling.

Post is good.
 
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Fnord
Old 11-28-2007, 06:39 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wufwugy
That's some loose ass preflop calling.
As trite as pre-flop usually is, I think this merits some discussion.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 25.572% 25.35% 00.27% 2289473 24221.83 { 97s }
Hand 1: 45.563% 44.39% 01.26% 4009039 113420.33 { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AQo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 28.865% 27.58% 01.34% 2490750 121031.67 { TT-22, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }

I think my implied odds are pretty good, I have relative position and my opponents are well... LoL @ the turn fold.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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wufwugy
Old 11-28-2007, 07:08 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 Well, every hand has good equity when there's a bit behind and five cards yet to come. The problem is mainly in reverse odds and our limited knowledge of oppositions' hands.

Using similar math, I assume, as you guys do to get the odds we need to call raises with pairs to set hunt (10:1), it has been told to me we need about 20:1 with SCs. Due to game conditions now the 10:1 is actually closer to 15:1, and I imagine the 20:1 is closer to 25:1. We're not getting those odds here vs these stacks.

Looking at it kinda differently, CO is short, and playing implied handsvs him is pretty much always bad. BTN is medium stacked, which isn't as bad, yet he called, not raised. Playing implied hands vs a caller is pretty much always worse than vs a raiser. BTN's range may even be kinda sorta tight here, too, but our implied odds are still at least slightly worse than if he was the raiser, imo.

I honestly don't wanna call with 79s vs two full yet good stacks. Only vs decent to poor players and when they're full. However, I do not know the real odds here. They really haven't been spelled out nearly as well on forums as have PP odds.
 
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