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Possibly behind, but lots of outs

  
 
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LeFou
Old 10-13-2005, 09:52 PM     Post subject: Possibly behind, but lots of outs #1 (permalink)  
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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ Hero (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

UTG+1 ($33.58)
MP1 ($57.50)
MP2 ($43.52)
MP3 ($52.50)
CO ($45.23)
Button ($6.60)
SB ($59.60)
Hero ($45.75)
UTG ($45.70)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, Q. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG raises to $3, 3 folds, MP3 calls $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $2.50.

Flop: ($9.25) 7, 9, 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $4, UTG raises to $8, MP3 folds, Hero calls $4.

Turn: ($25.25) J (2 players)

Any ideas?
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DaHorror
Old 10-13-2005, 10:24 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Well he doesn't have 9s, but he is sure acting like he has an overpair - doubtful it's jacks - maybe AA - TT minus JJ.

I would fold QJs to a raise on the BB preflop...the minraise call is good but you didn't hit your flush on the turn...if you are committed to seeing the river you have to bet the turn pretty good since you hit a pair...

One possibility is that he is on the ace hi flush draw and he reraised you with position to get a free card...
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Blinky
Old 10-13-2005, 11:56 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Any read LeFou?

My first thought was overpair but the PFR and subsequent flop bet seem small. TT at most in terms of an overpair. Maybe he has overs or may be on a goot draw... slight chance of AKd maybe - but I think AKd would reraise harder?!?

I do think you're ahead on the turn though.

I have learned to hate any QJ but I think you bet the turn pretty hard (push out the draw).
Quote:
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We will not support your pocket pair aggression.
 
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Fnord
Old 10-14-2005, 12:13 AM #4 (permalink)  
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This hand sucks.

What do you know about UTG? What range would he raise with? How does he play post-flop? Why the hell would you call that raise out of position without having a clue about either point?

What possible merit does that flop bet have it you don't plan to 3-bet his ass?

As played, I would check/call or check/raise the turn. I really don't care much if he checks behind.

Am I the only one who thinks it's patently stupid to post difficult deep money NLHE hands without reads? In LHE there is usually a pretty good default line for a given situation. NLHE more often the answer is "it depends."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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LeFou
Old 10-14-2005, 12:53 AM #5 (permalink)  
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best read I can provide is:
this is empire 50NL; lots of people try to sit and trap, but I only joined this table recently and can't say whether he does that more or less frequently than anyone else.

I don't see him raising the flop bet w/o an overpair to that board. Hopefully tens, but I suspected my jacks weren't good enough yet.

I was not sure whether heshe was capable of laying down a big pair.

The flop bet is a standard thing with me on a strong draw. I bet around 60-80% of the pot because few people -- even those who are leading -- will raise sufficiently to kill my odds.

How do you 3bet purely on a draw? In NL? How much?
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Fnord
Old 10-14-2005, 12:57 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
I only joined this table recently and can't say whether he does that more or less frequently than anyone else.
Great reason not to call a 6xBB UTG raise out of position. Better reason to install PokerTracker + get a HUD so you can get reads faster.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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allLiving
Old 10-14-2005, 01:10 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I give him credit for a pair of 9s, that's all.

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Pokerstars - [595-ESCAPE]
 
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Fnord
Old 10-14-2005, 01:12 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by allLiving
I give him credit for a pair of 9s, that's all.
What's your plan for playing this out of position with $22 behind? Do we want it all in on the turn?

Lead?
Check/call?
Check/raise?

What's your plan for the river?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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LeFou
Old 10-14-2005, 01:34 AM #9 (permalink)  
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no river plan 'cause i figured this was good for an AI on the turn, thinking he'll lay down anything but sets and KK/AA at that point, and that he could even lay down the KK. If not I count 14 outs anyway
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Fnord
Old 10-14-2005, 01:39 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Check/raise or push the turn then?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LeFou
If not I count 14 outs anyway
Your Q outs are no g00t against AA/KK/QQ. DUCY?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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LeFou
Old 10-14-2005, 02:51 PM #11 (permalink)  
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shit, I do now.
well, I pushed, opp showed KK and no help for me.

I think you're right; I lost this hand preflop.
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lolzzz_321
Old 10-14-2005, 02:55 PM #12 (permalink)  
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JQ s00000000000ted is such a sucker hand
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