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jimmy44
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11-11-2007, 09:54 PM
Post subject: PokerEV Analysis - help needed
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Place where I can spew
Posts: 1,391
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Hi Guys,
I've been analysing my last hands with PokerEV and I see the following results:
Did I really had bad luck or this is normal?
Was I expected to win $650 takin in condireration the Equity?
Thanks!
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Hmmmm, one day I'm gonna write a strat post about these...
You're running about $200 below EV, the green line being so far down means you may be folding too much/ not betting enough with a big hand/ spewing etc. etc. in hands that do not get to showdown. Now I'm lazy so I'm just going quote wufwugy...
Quote:
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
The Flop-a-setometer as well as PokerEV DO NOT demonstrate whether or not you are running well or poorly. There is soooooo much more to luck than what the current software calculates. You can run bad on sets, KK vs AA, all-in equity, yet STILL be running ridiculously hot. I've had PokerEV graphs that said I was running waaaaay above expectation, yet I was down in money simply because I was actually getting tons of other types of ill-luck.
These software do not account for being outflopped, not hitting draws and folding, being pushed out of pots due to other player actions, what of villian's range your bluffs are against, hitting hands vs certain players, etc. Hitting hands against donkeys instead of regs is so so so much more valuable than hitting more than your share of sets or aces or what have you in non-committed pots vs non-donkeys.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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You need to use the luck tab. Even then, the creator of the software says that it becomes less and less accurate the more hands you input.
Given the information the software provides, you're running normal overall. It's just that at this 1-2k hand point you're running a little poorly. Like I said in badgers quote, the info isn't completely reliable due to incomplete control for all forms of variance.
Your green line being much lower mainly has to do with playing a less bluffy and semi-bluffy style as well as playing against less bluffy players and stations. The more you bluff, the more your all-in equity drops, yet your won without showdown increases (if you're good, at least); and the more your opponents call, the more your all-in equity rises (if you don't bluff them, obv), yet your won without showdown with drop.
I am not yet sure if it is possible or optimal to have a green line higher than blue line at low stakes where the opposition is poorly skilled. It is, however, optimal at higher stakes where the opposition is substantially skilled.
And Badgers, I'd like to see a strat post about these.
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jimmy44
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Place where I can spew
Posts: 1,391
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
Given the information the software provides, you're running normal overall
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Thanks! That was really the info I needed! I actually thought that I was having a major run of bad luck and that I would try cash again. However, I see that it's not that! Good, now I won't be in a rush to try cash again 
BTW, if I had the green line (with the same red and blue lines) on the negative side let's say on hand 18000 would that mean that I was having bad luck?
Thanks!
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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you don't use exclamation marks enough!
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Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?
Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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from what i know (and thats limited) about this program you arent getting people to fold better hands in marginal spots enough. Sure its not important in small stakes games perhaps not even midstakes games as you can make a substantial earn by playing with few mistakes.
if you look at the high stakes players, they often have a green line equal to the others or higher in some.
this means they are super aggressive winning lots of pots without showing down (eg you know the other guy has AK on the river and one pair and you c/r all in with AJ oop knowing he cant call your bet as you rep such a good hand etc)
Dont know how you alleviate this problem however and its hardly a leak if what i have just written isnt crap ofc
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wufwugy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 1,660
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jimmy44
Quote:
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Originally Posted by wufwugy
Given the information the software provides, you're running normal overall
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Thanks! That was really the info I needed! I actually thought that I was having a major run of bad luck and that I would try cash again. However, I see that it's not that! Good, now I won't be in a rush to try cash again
BTW, if I had the green line (with the same red and blue lines) on the negative side let's say on hand 18000 would that mean that I was having bad luck?
Thanks! |
There are a ton of problems when not using the luck tab, so be sure to do that. It also looks like you jumped up in stakes about 3/5ths the way through since your green line is a bit lower than blue line. You don't want it too low, which it is.
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jimmy44
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Place where I can spew
Posts: 1,391
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Thanks for the info on me not making people fold enough. That's definetively a leak that I have to sort when I play cash again.
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Originally Posted by wyfwugy
There are a ton of problems when not using the luck tab, so be sure to do that. It also looks like you jumped up in stakes about 3/5ths the way through since your green line is a bit lower than blue line. You don't want it too low, which it is.
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I've looked at the Luck tab and it seems that I'm loosing about $150 there.
Concerning the jumping up stakes ==> Right in the middle!! Actually, during this period I mainly played 50NL and those green steep decrease represent my failed attemps at 100NL.
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
you don't use exclamation marks enough!
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Yup!
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