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astrodon
Old 11-25-2004, 03:56 AM     Post subject: poker v futures #1 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Eastern Oregon
Posts: 133
astrodon
I spent a measure of my time trading futures in the past and learned early on that if you had a track record of 4 winning trades in every 10 trades, you would need a risk to reward ratio of 1:2.5 just to break even before cost of fees.

I am a NUB of the first order... 8-)

So, to date I have played 451 hands in 6 sessions against and average of 8.96 players in $0.5/$1 games. Stats as follows:

BB/100 4.71 (fallen off of late )
VP$IP 19.96
PFR% 5.10
W$SD 52.63 (also down from 68% two sessions ago)
AF 2.03 (risen of late in the interest of experiment )
Net $21.25 (down from 51.05 two sessions ago - so much for experiment 8-) )

Back to my point and questions. Given sundry datum from PK I have arrived at the final conclusions.

I have received the 12 best two card hands 22 times of 451 hands or about 4.88% of the hands. Given the avg players per session, LB/BB and having to pay a blind about every 6 hands; if one should tighten up and just wait for those 12 hands only; one would need at minimum an expected rate of return of 1:2.66 every played hand just to break even before rake.

For you guru's out there - does this sound reasonable? or in line with the experience of those who have played K's of hands? If there are not 1:3 pot odds u shouldn't play? Any but the most powerfull of the 12?
Education is what is left when you have forgotten everything you learned in school
 
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