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please analyse this one to !!!!!

  
 
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xxDFOCxx
Old 01-14-2005, 12:55 AM     Post subject: please analyse this one to !!!!! #1 (permalink)  

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Location: Saint-Jean-sur-Richelieu, Canada
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xxDFOCxx
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#Game No : 1432609678
***** Hand History for Game 1432609678 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Thursday, January 13, 20:52:22 EDT 2005
Table Gimlet (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: sejje ( $31.95 )
Seat 2: MSU1233 ( $18.05 )
Seat 4: empatheking ( $97.4 )
Seat 6: rip3027 ( $68.78 )
Seat 10: JFGUS ( $8.25 )
Seat 7: xxDFOCxx ( $34.2 )
Seat 5: murderem ( $37.45 )
Seat 3: JibSheet ( $21.05 )
Seat 9: pokerpudII ( $35.25 )
Seat 8: micheal489 ( $32.3 )
pokerpudII posts small blind [$0.25].
JFGUS posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to xxDFOCxx [ Qh Qd ]
sejje raises [$4].
MSU1233 folds.
JibSheet folds.
empatheking folds.
rip3027 calls [$4].
xxDFOCxx calls [$4].
micheal489 folds.
pokerpudII folds.
JFGUS folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Js, 5s, Qc ]
sejje checks.
rip3027 bets [$3].
xxDFOCxx raises [$15].
sejje is all-In [$27.95]
>You have options at Table 11228 Table!.
rip3027 calls [$24.95].
xxDFOCxx is all-In [$15.2]
>You have options at Table 23837 Table!.
rip3027 calls [$2.25].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4s ]
** Dealing River ** [ Th ]
xxDFOCxx shows [ Qh, Qd ] three of a kind, queens.
sejje shows [ Jd, Jc ] three of a kind, jacks.
rip3027 shows [ Kc, Ac ] a straight, ten to ace.
>You have options at Table 11228 Table!.
rip3027 wins $4.5 from side pot #1 with a straight, ten to ace.
rip3027 wins $93.6 from the main pot with a straight, ten to ace.
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montimus
Old 01-14-2005, 01:36 AM #2 (permalink)  
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montimus
You made the right move. You just happened to get bad beat by a guy willing to risk 25 bucks on a 4 outer.

Bad beats like this sting pretty bad...but keep playing like this and you're going to take a lot of money from idiots like that...
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Ayce
Old 01-14-2005, 01:53 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Not much to analyse you had by far the best of it (78% chance to win) and you got their money in when you were the odds on favourite

Sejje is in a position where nearly everyone is going to lose their stack he had one out.

Rip played badly and got very lucky he had four outs or runner runner for trips, it was a bad call on his part. If he plays like that all the time he will be a long term loser.
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xxDFOCxx
Old 01-14-2005, 01:59 AM #4 (permalink)  

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xxDFOCxx
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Happy to hear that. For this one, I really tough I made the right move. What a lucky B*&(*ard.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 01-14-2005, 02:16 AM #5 (permalink)  
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This should go in the bad beats thread.

No analysis needed.

Did you really think you made a mistake by getting all the money in with the nuts?

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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montimus
Old 01-14-2005, 02:34 AM #6 (permalink)  
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montimus
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ayce
Rip played badly and got very lucky he had four outs or runner runner for trips, it was a bad call on his part. If he plays like that all the time he will be a long term loser.
Runner runner flush possibly, but if AA or KK came, it would have given our boy the full house over the trips.
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Ayce
Old 01-14-2005, 04:08 AM #7 (permalink)  
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I stand corrected runner runner flush
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zenbitz
Old 01-16-2005, 04:59 PM #8 (permalink)  
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zenbitz
He had AcKc, flop was JcQc. So he had 4 T outs and 8 other club outs. And they were all untainted, except if the board pairs on the other card.

So JJJ has 1 out, QQQ has 3 outs (jack is no good!) + the outs if there is a running pair, so 6 outs.

The 5c is the only tainted out - the others are kinda hard to figure how to count. Plus the Tc is the straight flush....

This is a job for the simulator... I am going to john henry and say that JJJ wins ~3%, AcKc wins 33% and QQQ wins the rest (64%)


Simulator says...

4.4% 37%, 59%

close enough - not really much of a bad beat, you were not even 2:1 to win post flop and a coin flip pre flop. And yes, you played it right - question is did straight flush draw?

He called $25 into a $30 pot, not the best edge, but when you called, it was $25 into $45 which is better than pot odds, even after he tosses in his last $2.25!
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knightwalker
Old 01-17-2005, 11:55 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Location: So. Cal
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knightwalker
Quote:
Originally Posted by zenbitz
He had AcKc, flop was JcQc. So he had 4 T outs and 8 other club outs. And they were all untainted, except if the board pairs on the other card.

So JJJ has 1 out, QQQ has 3 outs (jack is no good!) + the outs if there is a running pair, so 6 outs.

The 5c is the only tainted out - the others are kinda hard to figure how to count. Plus the Tc is the straight flush....

This is a job for the simulator... I am going to john henry and say that JJJ wins ~3%, AcKc wins 33% and QQQ wins the rest (64%)


Simulator says...

4.4% 37%, 59%

close enough - not really much of a bad beat, you were not even 2:1 to win post flop and a coin flip pre flop. And yes, you played it right - question is did straight flush draw?

He called $25 into a $30 pot, not the best edge, but when you called, it was $25 into $45 which is better than pot odds, even after he tosses in his last $2.25!
Js not Jc
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