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KY_Ace
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03-17-2006, 08:55 AM
Post subject: Playing scared with a set???
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
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Every 136 hands you'll flop a set, that's a long time to wait. The way my opponenent played this hand on the flop made me think "I'm probably gonna have to wait another 136 hands before I make any money from my set". Am I playing too scared here or is this guy trapping me with QQ?
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx
saw flop|saw showdown
BB ($27.74)
UTG ($6.53)
UTG+1 ($15.65)
UTG+2 ($28.11)
MP1 ($10.99)
Hero ($62.80)
MP3 ($25.75)
CO ($14.42)
Button ($19.71)
SB ($47.75)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5 , 5 . SB posts a blind of $0.10.
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1.5, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 5 folds.
Flop: ($3.35) 5 , Q , T (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $1.6, UTG+2 raises to $3.2, Hero calls $1.60.
Turn: ($9.75) 4 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks.
River: ($9.75) 7 (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $9.07, Hero calls $9.07.
Final Pot: $27.89
Results in white below:
UTG+2 has Qh Qs (three of a kind, queens).
Hero has 5h 5s (three of a kind, fives).
Outcome: UTG+2 wins $27.89.
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metaxy6
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03-17-2006, 12:32 PM
Post subject: Re: Playing scared with a set???
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#2 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 328
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by KY_Ace
Am I playing too scared here
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I think yes. Until the river, he has exactly 2 holdings that have you dead. But your hand is still vulnerable. Turn is where you've got to get value since any non-pairing broadway will either stifle your action or put you to a tough decision.
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holdin2
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 279
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Cold calling 15x PFR with 55?
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freechus9
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: IN UR BOX HAXXING UR FILEZ
Posts: 1,000
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by holdin2
Cold calling 15x PFR with 55?
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Implied odds.
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My sig is too much for you to handle.
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metaxy6
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 328
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by holdin2
Cold calling 15x PFR with 55?
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i think this is 10/25, and that's 6x.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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either way, effective stacks give 20:1 implied odds here.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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easy preflop call.
im not happy if you dont go bust set over set. period. Despite deep stacks here.
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holdin2
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 279
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
either way, effective stacks give 20:1 implied odds here.
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Oops, only saw blind of .10 posted. So, I'm not real good with implied odds. Is the 20:1 his stack in realation to your call?..... cause you figure you're gonna take all his chips if you do flop? Isn't that a little generous/presumptious?
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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yes it is, but keep in mind, you only need 8:1 to make money. So 20:1 is what is possible in the best case scenario, making it more than worth it.
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dj newman
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 210
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I love holding PP when someone raises...as long as we have the stacks to play for it....people who raise preflop don't like to give up their hand, especially if they hit with their A or K or a lower flop comes on thier high PP...you will take their stack everytime this happens. Too tough to get away from TPTK on a non-threatening board.
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r8ed
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 1,524
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You should reraise his check-raise. Set over set happens, but the times you beat a lesser holding far outweigh that occurance. You want his money in the middle. It's routine to take AQ for a ride here but you want to commit them as early as possible before a scare card comes or they start to believe you. If you skip the flop, you have to bet the turn and push the river.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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If you are playing 55 to hit a set, expect to have two overs everytime. Bet it strong and loose your stack to a higher set. The only way to maximize set profits is to play them for stacks because most times than not, you're going to win.
Only play scared with a set if there are 4 clovers or you have TT and the board reads TJQK.
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Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
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holdin2
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 279
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
yes it is, but keep in mind, you only need 8:1 to make money. So 20:1 is what is possible in the best case scenario, making it more than worth it.
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Thanks for the explanation. I'll need to pay attention to this more for sure.
How often do you think you get paid 8:1 in general in heads up? Here Hero would have got 9:1 payoff and that was with very heavy betting on the end. You would think a decent amount of the time you are going to get boards that the villian will not want to keep pouring money into. Is there a general rule for what you want on the high end of implied odds in these situations?
How does calling change if you were not the last to act and faced the possibility of reraises? Obviously implied odds are only getting better if you happened to get only calls behind you, but how do you balance pot odds of calling vs implied odds with more players yet to act?
Sorry, lot of questions, but just trying to learn.
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KY_Ace
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
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The thing that concerned me here was the check-raise, if he had bet out on the flop I would've put him on an overpair or AQ, and punished him accordingly. A pre-flop raise followed by a check usually means one of 2 things, a very weak hand or a very strong hand. This just smelt like a slow-play to me. Either a monster or he's testing the waters with JJ or 99, planning to raise me once and fold if I re-raise.
I felt that if I had the best hand he had 2 outs, 4 if he CRing the flop with AK (not likely). I felt that checking the turn would maximize my profits vs JJ and 99 because they'll be more likely to pay me off on the river. I would also induce a river bluff if he was CRing with AK. If he had bet small on the river I would've raised him, so I'd still get a good chunk of his stack if he had AA, KK or AQ. Checking the turn also minimizes my losses vs QQ and TT. On the river he had put 1/2 of his $28 stack in, I think wanting more than $14 giving the way he played the hand would be letting greed blind me. Does anyone raise the huge river bet here?
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bencathers
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Manhattan & Boston
Posts: 480
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He check raises the flop but doesn't lead out on the turn? At these stakes and this type of action, how does one imply that? I feel its either over cards / JK (oesd) but realize some people who hit a high set after a pre-flop raise don't mind the check.
I guess this becomes read dependent if you've seen the person checking big flopped hands after a pre-flop raise, or if the villian is trying to defend the pot. Weird stuff, but like everyone says, if you dont go broke in set over set then something's wrong
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Dealer: bencathers has two pair, Aces and Deuces
Dealer: Tbags has two pair, Kings and Jacks
Dealer: Tbags finished the tournament in 256th place
Tbags [observer]: another scumbag gets there on this site lol
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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opp shows 88/99/ ? perhaps even 77 ?
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KY_Ace
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
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I edited my original post and put the results in white for anyone who's curious.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I would push the river.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
yes it is, but keep in mind, you only need 8:1 to make money. So 20:1 is what is possible in the best case scenario, making it more than worth it.
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Can you explain your thought process here?
The more detailed, the better, but don't forget the following truths:
we don't always win with a set.
we don't always stack our opponent if we hit a set.
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NLHE lahooozaher
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 916
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Quote:
If you are playing 55 to hit a set, expect to have two overs everytime. Bet it strong and loose your stack to a higher set. The only way to maximize set profits is to play them for stacks because most times than not, you're going to win.
Only play scared with a set if there are 4 clovers or you have TT and the board reads TJQK.
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The way the opponent played his hand here I would expect a higher set nearly everytime but if he just bets out the flop here I am raising and doing all the betting I can. You shouldn't just consider the strength of your hand, your opponent does hold two cards as well.
To the OP, I would play this hand the exact same as the check/minraise after raising pf and checking the turn is just screaming set.
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
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I would've lost my stack at the turn (maybe already at the flop).
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NLHE lahooozaher
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 916
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Quote:
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I would've lost my stack at the turn (maybe already at the flop).
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I just don't understand this. I've seen some people say this without giving reasons why. Yes you have a set but stupid low limit fishies try to get tricky when they flop monsters and what is the first thing he does? Check/raises (isn't he so tricky?). He practically told you what he has and that he wants to play for stacks and doesn't know how to build a pot OOP with a monster.
Isn't this just second level thinking? First level: Your cards how to play them and second is: My opponent has 2 cards what hand would he play in this manner(hand reading). This hand seems incredibly basic.
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midas06
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: NZ
Posts: 2,196
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Also consider what range of hands villain would consider a 'monster'.
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KY_Ace
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Flush
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Toronto, Canada
Posts: 259
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher
Yes you have a set but stupid low limit fishies try to get tricky when they flop monsters and what is the first thing he does? Check/raises (isn't he so tricky?). He practically told you what he has and that he wants to play for stacks and doesn't know how to build a pot OOP with a monster.
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LMFAO!!! Funny you should say that, in my notes for this guy I wrote "FPS" ( Fancy Play Syndrome ).
I showed him the 55 after I called, had to suck for him not to double up in a set-over-set situation. Maybey he'll stop making these "Fancy Plays".
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,334
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by johnny_fish
I would've lost my stack at the turn (maybe already at the flop).
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Villian's line is really worrysome, hence my lack of comment. I'm not sure if I play for stacks here or what I would do. It really depends on what I think of the other guy and if he would play a worse hand other than a bluff like that. The river is a clear make-up bet, at that point I don't think we're getting the best of a raise. Any comment on a flop line was tainted by seeing a turn + river line in advance.
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
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I really admire Hero's play if he can minimize losses this way vs. an overset without losing value when he's ahead.. The problem is that it's really difficult to see the difference between AA/KK/AQ and QQ (well, at least I find it difficult, maybe with more experience/skill this is all pretty standard). Btw, this is 25NL, the place where TPNK call off their whole stack..
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bdawg56kg
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Honolulu
Posts: 1,201
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Absent a read, there's just no way in hell I don't get my stack in with a set here. If you have a good read, then I can understand your line, but c'mon man, playing in fear of the nuts is just throwing money down the drain.
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