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Are people really this stupid?

  
 
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Golden_Hand
Old 11-27-2005, 11:01 PM     Post subject: Are people really this stupid? #1 (permalink)  

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niiiice

***** Hand History for Game 3103271100 *****
$25 NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, November 27, 07:47:23 EDT 2005
Table Table 65127 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: texastimmy ( $33 )
Seat 2: Dockafinn ( $13.40 )
Seat 4: PaleMan1 ( $23.70 )
Seat 5: koowee ( $62.49 )
Seat 6: funkspunk ( $25.60 )
Seat 3: Golden_Hand1 ( $24.40 )
PaleMan1 posts small blind [$0.10].
koowee posts big blind [$0.25].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Golden_Hand1 [ Ts Jd ]
funkspunk calls [$0.25].
texastimmy folds.
Dockafinn folds.
Golden_Hand1 calls [$0.25].
PaleMan1 raises [$0.40].
koowee calls [$0.25].
funkspunk calls [$0.25].
Golden_Hand1 calls [$0.25].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9h, Th, 8c ]
PaleMan1 checks.
koowee checks.
funkspunk checks.
Golden_Hand1 bets [$2].
PaleMan1 calls [$2].
koowee folds.
funkspunk folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Qc ]
PaleMan1 is all-In.
Golden_Hand1 calls [$21.20].
** Dealing River ** [ Tc ]
PaleMan1 shows [ Ac, Kc ] a flush, ace high.
Golden_Hand1 shows [ Ts, Jd ] a straight, eight to queen.
PaleMan1 wins $46 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.

I hit my straight on the turn and my opponent decided to go all in on the turn and hit his flush draw on the river .. love it
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mouteut
Old 11-28-2005, 04:09 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Posts: 152
mouteut
He did a semi bluff......basicelly here is his thinking:

If my opponement dont have the jack, he surely fold and i win the pot right here.(and most of the time he wont have it).

If my opponement has it, i still have 3 outs(jack) + flush draw.

numbers sounds like this:

70% of the time opponement fold and i win 5$
24% of the time i loose 20$
6% of the time i win 26$

However im not quite sure it was well used in this hand(the pot dont seem huge enough to me to do this). But its probably not too negative.

If the 70% fold is accurate, his play is +EV. But it is probably less than that and then the play is -EV. But if the pot was a little more huge(10$) it would be good.

You got unlucky but his play is not idiotic.
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Golden_Hand
Old 11-28-2005, 04:48 AM #3 (permalink)  

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i understand your logic, i guess you get lucky sometimes
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mouteut
Old 11-28-2005, 04:53 AM #4 (permalink)  
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mouteut
Yea he did get very lucky but you have to understand he did that for his fold equity, while still having something left behind. But maybe he was a bit an idiot in this hand.
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lamaros
Old 11-28-2005, 04:55 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Posts: 346
lamaros
Quote:
Originally Posted by Golden_Hand
i understand your logic, i guess you get lucky sometimes
Proper poker is not about luck, it's about odds over time.

As mouteut said, if he thinks he has a 70% chance of folding you then:

70*5 = +350
24*20=-480
6*26=+156

As you can see even in this case it's a borderline play, but a play that, over 100 hands, will net $26.

Understanding this aspect of poker and not looking at each hand in isolation, lucky or unlucky, will help you become a better player.
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mouteut
Old 11-28-2005, 05:14 AM #6 (permalink)  
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mouteut
Imagine instead of TJ you held TQ. His play would have forced you to fold and it would have been best play.

I think 70% might be accurate....A lot of hands you could have been holding that didn't contain a jack.
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Fnord
Old 11-28-2005, 05:23 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Yes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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