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Overthinking a simple hand?

  
 
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allabout
Old 02-04-2009, 01:24 PM     Post subject: Overthinking a simple hand? #1 (permalink)  
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allabout
V is the same in both hands. Hand 2 came immediately after hand 1 which is why I'm just overthinking it. Hand 1 is simply for reference, no questions on it. I have about 2500 hands and he is 16/7. 3bet 2.5%, aggression 2.2%. Both hands are pretty basic, just tell me to fold the flop on hand 2 and I'll be over it.
Additional background - the table had a few pretty bad players so I had been fairly active on this table, but overall if V pays any attention he knows I'm pretty tight. Also I know the call w/99 is marginal at best in hand 1, but I expected some other flatters and no one had been 3betting much.

Hand #1
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($24)
UTG ($117.85)
UTG+1 ($36.65)
MP1 ($100)
Hero (MP2) ($129.50)
CO ($100)
Button ($117.20)
SB ($109.30)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9, 9
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3, 1 fold, Hero calls $3, 1 fold, Button calls $3, SB raises to $15, 3 folds, Button calls $12

Flop: ($37) 5, 10, 8 (2 players)
SB bets $15, 1 fold

Total pot: $37 | Rake: $1.85

Hand #2
It almost just seemed like he was trying to just push around the table a little, although I know with his stats he shouldn't generally be doing that. So my mistakes are either calling the flop or not calling the turn.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($23)
BB ($117.85)
UTG ($33.65)
UTG+1 ($100)
Hero (MP1) ($126.50)
MP2 ($100)
CO ($102.20)
Button ($129.45)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, J
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP2 calls $4, 1 fold, Button calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($13.50) 6, 2, 10 (3 players)
Hero bets $9, 1 fold, Button raises to $26, Hero calls $17

Turn: ($65.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $99.45 (All-In), Hero...

His overbet on the turn either looks like he doesn't want a call, or he wants me to think he doesn't want a call.
Here's the range I stoved for him in reviewing the hand. I'm obviously way behind this range, so does this seem right? (the 7s on the turn doesn't really change much)
Board: 6c Ts 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.674% 35.67% 00.00% 6004 0.00 { JcJh }
Hand 1: 64.326% 64.33% 00.00% 10826 0.00 { TT, 66, 22, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, KcQc, Tc9c, Th9h, Ts9s }
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-04-2009, 04:45 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I would take out the T9 hands other than Tc9c and I'd throw in 9c8c and 7c8c and include KcTc and AcTc.

I think I call here on the turn though.


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allabout
Old 02-05-2009, 01:13 PM #3 (permalink)  
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allabout
Quote:
Originally Posted by elipsesjeff
I would take out the T9 hands other than Tc9c and I'd throw in 9c8c and 7c8c and include KcTc and AcTc.

I think I call here on the turn though.
Would you normally play it the same? Call the flop call the turn? Or would it be better to raise the flop?
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floptquadswunc
Old 02-05-2009, 03:12 PM #4 (permalink)  

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I'm new here, but not new to NL HE. It seems to me, and I realize this changes as the game gets bigger, but it seems to me that if they bet after you have shown aggression, then they have the goods. Therefore, once you bet the 3/4 pot on the flop and got raised u are in serious trouble. Sometimes, and it seems to be EXTREMELY rare, they are bluffing. I think they usually have the goods. I'm prolly to tight though......
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elipsesjeff
Old 02-05-2009, 05:10 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 The more I think about it... the more I like just folding the flop in this situation. We're cbetting OOP into a multiway pot and we have the bottom of our value range. If we had AA here then I would have to think about calling the turn but I think with JJ its an easy fold.

Try to go through his database to see how he plays sets/draws and you'll find your own answer I think.


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