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Overpair vs short(er) stack

  
 
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Strung
Old 04-07-2006, 06:04 AM     Post subject: Overpair vs short(er) stack #1 (permalink)  
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Bad call?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

MP2 ($142.53)
MP3 ($77.50)
CO ($109.28)
Button ($96.50)
SB ($49)
BB ($29.60)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($27.70)
Hero ($159)
MP1 ($162.05)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K, K. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, CO calls $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3.

Flop: ($12.50) T, 6, 2 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, CO folds, BB calls $25.60 (All-In), Hero calls $17.60.

Turn: ($63.70) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($63.70) A (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $63.70
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mxiu
Old 04-07-2006, 06:50 AM #2 (permalink)  
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You're beat by 3 sets, and AA.

You beat JJ-QQ, AT/KT/QT/JT/T9 (The latter 5 hands are a little iffy)

You have to pay 17.60 into 46.1o.

I think this makes it a decent call.
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Greedo017
Old 04-07-2006, 09:09 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 i would stab you in the face if you folded here
i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
 
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jackvance
Old 04-07-2006, 09:24 AM     Post subject: Re: Overpair vs short(er) stack #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strung
Bad call?
Easy call. Also remember that the odds he has a pp are lower than an unpaired hand. The chance that he has AT is only a little less than the chance that he actually has AA/TT/99. He could also have 22 to beat you, but you also beat QQ/JJ. So I'd give you somewhat over 50% to win this, and you only need to invest 28% for the call, so yeah.. gogo.
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Strung
Old 04-07-2006, 02:19 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I need to work on my math when I'm making these decisions. I know it but I sometimes forget it specifically in these all-in calls. Just for the record he flipped over 2Hearts 6Hearts.

As a side note, I'm wondering how bad a call this was for him, not just considering that the hand is bad but from his implied odds. He's getting almost 3:1 to call but a what point is the hand just not worth it?
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DaHorror
Old 04-07-2006, 02:55 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Well...there's now an obvious reason he's the shortstack. NH for him...good call by you.
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jackvance
Old 04-07-2006, 02:59 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Yeah not the best all-in by him, low double pair can be beaten too easily.

In this particular case, on the turn you have 2 outs to your set, 3 outs to an T (then you out-2-pair him). By the river you have an additional 3 outs to another 8. So I'd say since every card on the turn is going to be above his 2, that you have 7.5 outs to beat him over turn+river, or somewhat of a 36%. And he's in luck here with your overpair. If you had had a simple TP, like AT, then you have 3 additional outs on your A, or 10.5 outs which is 46%.
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krimson
Old 04-07-2006, 03:58 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strung
As a side note, I'm wondering how bad a call this was for him, not just considering that the hand is bad but from his implied odds. He's getting almost 3:1 to call but a what point is the hand just not worth it?
He called $3 hoping to win about $40 if he hit. The chance of 62s outflopping KK is about 6% (this includes some combo-draws where 62s has a tiny edge on the flop), and even then his hand will only hold up about 4.5% of those 6%. So if we assume that:
*he manages to get you AI every time he outflops you
*you never give him odds to draw if he does not outflop you, and he doesn't make any bad flop calls (not even on a K66 flop)
*the CO never makes an even better hand
then BB will win $40 4.5% of the time and lose another $25 1.5% of the time, so on average he wins $1.40. The EV of his preflop call is therefore about -$1.60, even under these rather generous assumptions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackvance
Yeah not the best all-in by him, low double pair can be beaten too easily.
With so little money left behind I'd certainly try to get it AI on the flop with two pair.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackvance
In this particular case, on the turn you have 2 outs to your set, 3 outs to an T (then you out-2-pair him). By the river you have an additional 3 outs to another 8. So I'd say since every card on the turn is going to be above his 2, that you have 7.5 outs to beat him over turn+river, or somewhat of a 36%. And he's in luck here with your overpair. If you had had a simple TP, like AT, then you have 3 additional outs on your A, or 10.5 outs which is 46%.
Your maths is completely off. Bottom two against TP/overpair is about 75% favourite (same for both).
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