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Ouch, AK is in extremely aggressive spot

  
 
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pokerfan
Old 03-01-2008, 12:36 AM     Post subject: Ouch, AK is in extremely aggressive spot #1 (permalink)  
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villain is 13.8/7.1/5.o over 94 hands. In these 3 bet pots, especially button/ small/big blind confrontation, whats your thought process when this guy reraised me and commited himself ? what should i do?? Obvious fold or mans up shove?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($103.40)
UTG ($104.75)
UTG+1 ($49)
MP1 ($177.90)
MP2 ($178.15)
CO ($29.20)
Button ($106.30)
SB ($100.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, K.
5 folds, Button raises to $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $14, Button calls $10.

Flop: ($28.50) 4, 2, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $22, Button raises to $60, [color=#CC3333]Hero ?
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d0zer
Old 03-01-2008, 01:36 AM #2 (permalink)  
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d0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the roughd0zer is a jewel in the rough
 Board: 2c 3s 4d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.434% 31.30% 02.13% 111564 7596.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 66.566% 64.43% 02.13% 229644 7596.00 { 99+ }

Pot is 110 & you've committed 36 already...I think this is fairly close to neutral EV either way? If you have even a wee bit of FE (unlikely?), or think you can safely throw some non-paired hands in villain's range then I guess it's a shove?

*shrug*

*waits for the 100NL regs to rip into this donknalysis*
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pokerfan
Old 03-01-2008, 04:02 PM #3 (permalink)  
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dozer made good point i'd like to hear any other thoughts
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vegascoop
Old 03-01-2008, 07:28 PM #4 (permalink)  
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What do your stats look like to him? Any 3 betting history?

I would fold this in the games I'm playing in at NL50.

Betting 16-18 on the flop probably accomplishes everything we want and leaves us with an exit strategy. Of course a lot easier to say after the fact.
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XTR1000
Old 03-01-2008, 08:45 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Dozers analysis is pretty good.

If he´s a random unknown I just fold and go on, if he´s regular I may shove over for metagame and curiosity
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pokerfan
Old 03-01-2008, 09:00 PM #6 (permalink)  
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in the heat moment, i figured i had some OK equity against his range(99+, AJs+) plus good pot odds and his flop aggression looked prretty weird. As played, i shoved over his 3 bet.
Flop: ($28.50) 4, 2, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $22, Button raises to $60, Hero raises to $89.4, Button calls $29.40.

Turn: ($207.30) T (2 players)

River: ($207.30) 2 (2 players)

Final Pot: $207.30
he had :Ac: :Qc:
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wakeup
Old 03-02-2008, 10:37 PM #7 (permalink)  
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nicely played. i wud have chickened out. Lemme crakc at the maths u'd hit. Count all the outs? Lets count his 6 outs as 4. so 8 outs. turn- 8:39 ie 1:4.5, river-8:38 ie 1:4.5ish
So about 1:2 by the river?

pot odds: 64:200 ie 1:3.5ish

So push FTW with FE?
That maths remotely correct if my assumptions about the outs were right?
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