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OMG what are the chances? Number guru's?

  
 
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scgolfer
Old 05-21-2004, 04:48 AM     Post subject: OMG what are the chances? Number guru's? #1 (permalink)  
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First hand I played at the table and posted the BB. Unbelievable!!

Game #505757949 - (blinds $0.10/$0.25) No Limit Texas Hold'em -
2004/05/20-22:20:28 (CST)
Table "Narrowneck" (real money) -- Seat 8 is the button
Seat 1: Spongebob420 ($18.10 in chips)
Seat 2: AndyS ($15.13 in chips)
Seat 3: bozzmrx ($24.55 in chips)
Seat 4: blubufalo ($39.10 in chips)
Seat 5: Thingol ($20.60 in chips)
Seat 6: TwoFist ($32.70 in chips)
Seat 7: scgolfer ($25.00 in chips)
Seat 8: PAPATJ ($21.75 in chips)
Seat 9: fauxpawz ($6.10 in chips)
Seat 10: eret796 ($58.05 in chips)
fauxpawz: Post Small Blind ($0.10)
eret796 : Post Big Blind ($0.25)
scgolfer: Post ($0.25)
Dealing...
Dealt to scgolfer [ 7c ]
Dealt to scgolfer [ 2c ]
Spongebob420: Fold
AndyS : Fold
bozzmrx : Call ($0.25)
blubufalo: Call ($0.25)
Thingol : Call ($0.25)
TwoFist : Fold
scgolfer: Check
PAPATJ : Call ($0.25)
fauxpawz: Fold
eret796 : Check
*** FLOP *** : [ 2s 7d 7h ]
eret796 : Check
bozzmrx : Check
blubufalo: Check
Thingol : Check
scgolfer: Check
PAPATJ : Check
*** TURN *** : [ 2s 7d 7h ] [ 3d ]
eret796 : Check
bozzmrx : Check
blubufalo: Check
Thingol : Check
scgolfer: Bet ($1)
PAPATJ : Fold
eret796 : Call ($1)
bozzmrx : Fold
blubufalo: Fold
Thingol : Fold
*** RIVER *** : [ 2s 7d 7h 3d ] [ 4d ]
eret796 : Bet ($2.40)
scgolfer: Raise ($4.80)
eret796 : Raise ($9)
scgolfer: Raise ($18.95)
eret796 : Call ($12.35)
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: $48.60 | Rake: $2.50
Board: [ 2s 7d 7h 3d 4d ]
Spongebob420 didn't bet (folded)
AndyS didn't bet (folded)
bozzmrx lost $0.25 (folded)
blubufalo lost $0.25 (folded)
Thingol lost $0.25 (folded)
TwoFist didn't bet (folded)
scgolfer bet $25, collected $24.30, net -$0.70 (showed hand) [ 7c 2c ] (a full
house, sevens full of twos)
PAPATJ lost $0.25 (folded)
fauxpawz lost $0.10 (folded)
eret796 bet $25, collected $24.30, net -$0.70 (showed hand) [ 2d 7s ] (a full
house, sevens full of twos)
Holy crap I cant play against Yoda!!
 
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johnnyawe
Old 05-21-2004, 05:55 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I believe theres one person here who has the exact odds for that scenario in his signature. I forget who it is though.
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Toasty
Old 05-21-2004, 11:26 AM #3 (permalink)  
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it was me but that was 7,2 flopping 222 at 19,600 : 1

this situation I think is as follows :

Odds of someone having the same hand as you 271:1 (Heads up this reduces for each player extra) 10 players brings this to 26:1.

Odds of flopping 277 with you and the other dude's holdings.

29,400 : 1

For the whole scenario from start to finish I'm not sure and wouldn't like to guess.

The odds of two people specifically being dealt a pre-determined hand are 48,840 : 1

(4/50)*(3/49)*(4/48)*(3/47) This is for two people, for each player added you would multiply the result, i.e. 10 players result * 9. I'm not sure about this either but its the best i can come up with and I'm sure at best it would only be a rough answer.


I think this is close but I'm not 100%



Please don't flame me for any inaccuraces but please feel free to point out the error of my ways :)
Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .
 
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scgolfer
Old 05-21-2004, 07:00 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I guess I should have raised like like Ripptyde would have, and scared the other guy off, at least mine was suited. hehe
Holy crap I cant play against Yoda!!
 
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Old 05-21-2004, 07:15 PM #5 (permalink)  
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strangebird
Old 05-21-2004, 07:17 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
Man I'm gettin a bad rap around here...LoL

WWRD

= ALL IN !!
Just like Gus Hansen
Some days even my lucky rocket ship underpants won't help.
-- Calvin and Hobbes
 
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Toasty
Old 05-24-2004, 02:07 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Hey SCGolfer we were in a $20 + $2 at PP (or a PPskin) the w/e. We came 1st and second, I was the chip leader but you came back to win it. You let me give you my money, when i was betting bottom pair at you,(you were sitting on a K for top pair )

My cards were kind of cold from there, but it was a well deserved win, you had played pretty solid all game. I think i made notes on you

If I see you again i may or may not introduce myself, the only adv i'll have from not is avoiding the pots you are in

O yeah Congrats on the FTR championship.
Poker is all about the long long long long long long long term . . .
Barney's back . . . back again . . .
 
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