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Old PP AA hand. FD hits turn face potsize allin

  
 
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Pelion
Old 12-22-2006, 12:27 PM     Post subject: Old PP AA hand. FD hits turn face potsize allin #1 (permalink)  
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Rooting around in PT and I found this little gem. Villain is 60/20 after 30 hands.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+2 ($30.05)
MP1 ($72.44)
MP2 ($92.40)
Hero ($54.45)
CO ($66.56)
Button ($23.50)
SB ($53.40)
BB ($24.26)
UTG ($51.65)
UTG+1 ($49.50)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, A. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 3 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, Button calls $2, 2 folds, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: ($5.25) 8, 9, J (2 players)
Hero bets $4, Button calls $4.

Turn: ($13.25) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button calls $17.50 (All-In), Hero???

Final Pot: $30.75
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Miffed22001
Old 12-22-2006, 12:30 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 dont check

you are still probably betting the turn for value versus a majority of opponents, but you fold if you bet and he pushes (although the pot odds suck)
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Vrax
Old 12-22-2006, 01:18 PM #3 (permalink)  
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30 hands - too small sample but let's assume opponent is just yet another loose donkey.

$4 preflop, $7 on flop, stick it in rest on turn. Stack-a-donk line.

Blinds position+bad limpers in pot = play AA hyper fast.
"How could I call that bet? How could you MAKE that bet? It's poker not solitaire. " - that Gus Bronson guy
 
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Pelion
Old 12-22-2006, 01:52 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vrax
30 hands - too small sample but let's assume opponent is just yet another loose donkey.

$4 preflop, $7 on flop, stick it in rest on turn. Stack-a-donk line.

Blinds position+bad limpers in pot = play AA hyper fast.
when i raise preflop i have no idea villain is even going to be in the hand. Why raise to $4 and fold everyone out almost all of the time?
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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philly and the phanatics
Old 12-22-2006, 02:33 PM #5 (permalink)  
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philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough
 because the hands you dont want to call when you have aces (things that can bust you like suited connectors) will be gone pre flop and the only person likely to call you, you will have absolutely dominated going into the flop, so its worth betting large there to get them out and take down a small pot, rather than be in the situation you are in there with a flush on the board and random cards that could have given him something like a 2 pair or something lame and crazy
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Miffed22001
Old 12-22-2006, 04:55 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics
because the hands you dont want to call when you have aces (things that can bust you like suited connectors) will be gone pre flop and the only person likely to call you, you will have absolutely dominated going into the flop, so its worth betting large there to get them out and take down a small pot, rather than be in the situation you are in there with a flush on the board and random cards that could have given him something like a 2 pair or something lame and crazy

this is dumb
crap hands are exactly the ones we want to go to a flop because AA wins lots of pots the majority of the time versus any other hand in holdem
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philly and the phanatics
Old 12-22-2006, 06:07 PM #7 (permalink)  
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philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics
because the hands you dont want to call when you have aces (things that can bust you like suited connectors) will be gone pre flop and the only person likely to call you, you will have absolutely dominated going into the flop, so its worth betting large there to get them out and take down a small pot, rather than be in the situation you are in there with a flush on the board and random cards that could have given him something like a 2 pair or something lame and crazy

this is dumb
crap hands are exactly the ones we want to go to a flop because AA wins lots of pots the majority of the time versus any other hand in holdem
]

so because it wins the majority of pots you think you should slow play aces and try and win that way because youll win the majority of pots? thats rediculous
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Warpe
Old 12-22-2006, 06:20 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vrax
$4 preflop
BB is $0.50. Let's turn our cards face up while we're at it. $2 is fine.
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Pelion
Old 12-22-2006, 10:16 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics
so because it wins the majority of pots you think you should slow play aces and try and win that way because youll win the majority of pots? thats rediculous
Raising is hardly the same as slowplaying. Id dont mind him calling preflop and flop when hes behind when ive been betting 80%+ of the pot so far.

Lets assume he has 2 hearts and I have AA and hes trying to call based on impled odds on the flop.

He calls his $4 flop bet at 5:1 to hit on the turn. Assuming he pushes when he hits and I bet again when he misses (forcing him to fold or call another big bet with no implied odds since I will be almost allin) he needs to win an average of $20 when he hits to break even.

When he hits the turn and pushes I still have 7 outs to a higher flush so im 37:7 ~ 5:1 ish to outdraw him.

So if he hits the turn

He will move allin for his remaining $17.50 to win $30

5 times he'll win $30 and 1 time he'll lose $17.50 for a total EV of +$22 once hes hit the turn.

So he'll only win an average of $22 when he hits the turn. So the EV of calling the flop to hit the turn is

lose $4 5 times, win $22 once = +$2

Thats pretty marginal even if I call every time.

The EV of the play if I fold to his push is bad. win the $9 when he pushes and I fold once, lose $4 when the flush doesnt come and he folds (5 times).

So his EV is -$11. So my ratio of calling to folding has to be 6:1 or better for his flop call to show a profit with these cards. Throwing in some AJ type hands, or maybe a AK here and there and assuming that I will fold AA here at least *some* of the time and you can see hes on to a loser.

Bluffing with something like TJo is much more profitable here but do I really want to drive away TJo preflop. He has $23 and hes calling a $2 raise before the flop.

Hes getting around 10:1. Im not going to stack off everytime he hits 2 pair, since him hitting hard will often mean there arent many cards left for me to hit. If he hits TJx on the flop then there arent many ways I can hit my AK. If the flop comes TJK and I have AK and Im getting alot of action im not stacking off too often. What about when the flop comes T62 and I have AA, he has TJ. Is he really getting away without losing at least a good quarter - half his stack here? If he is then Im really happy the majority of the time when I hold AQ and push him off. What about when it comes J62 and I have AJ.

My point is I am protected from alot of these small hands by the relativly small effective stacks AND by my reasonably wide range. Hes going to struggle to come up with implied odds against me that cover him calling with such inferior hands. I dont want to raise so much so that I only get action from QQ,KK. I also dont want to raise so much that I give away my hand to other big stacks since they will have implied odds. I dont mind him calling when hes behind
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Vrax
Old 12-22-2006, 10:55 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
BB is $0.50. Let's turn our cards face up while we're at it. $2 is fine.
If someone's big raise from BB turns his cards face up then he has unbalanced strategy. Throw in some J2o's, *3o's, bomb at dead money with AK, even AQ and stop worrying about broadcasting your hand.

But ok, let it be $2 and milking style. Different styles, one likes milking, the other one aims at destacking. I go for finding people's weakness and breaking them, so if their weakness is playing lots of pots for a raise I make sure I can force them to make the biggest mistake possible.

Turn is easy bet/call, only insufferable nits put very loose player HU on flush draw and make scared checks and folds after 3rd suit hits.

Opponent is short, loose caller, we are good here in most cases and if not, Ah is insurance policy. It's bet/call on turn. Folding pretty good hands against absurd bets of shorties is definitely losing play.

I guess that check was to induce bluff and our Hero insta-called.
"How could I call that bet? How could you MAKE that bet? It's poker not solitaire. " - that Gus Bronson guy
 
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Pelion
Old 12-22-2006, 11:05 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
you fold if you bet and he pushes (although the pot odds suck)
This is a crazy spot for a bet/fold.

At the turn the pot is 13.25.

If I bet x, he pushes 17.50.

I then have to call 17.50-x to win 17.50+13.25+x = 30.25+x

To make the call after ive bet i need (17.5-x)/48.25 equity.

I have a 7/44 of hitting the nut flush if he already has one (slightly higher if he has an offsuit straight).

The difference between the equity I need and the lower estimate for the equity I have is therefore:

(17.5-x)/48.25 - 7/44 ~ (17.5-x-7)/44 = (10.5-x)/44

x | Extra equity I need (%)
1 | 21.59090909
2 | 19.31818182
3 | 17.04545455
4 | 14.77272727
5 | 12.5
6 | 10.22727273
7 | 7.954545455
8 | 5.681818182
9 | 3.409090909
10 | 1.136363636
10.5 | 0

If I bet less than half pot or more Im inducing a bluff and If i bet more than half pot Im pretty much committed just on the chance he has 2 pair/air/ something else.

Bet fold sucks.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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Pelion
Old 12-22-2006, 11:07 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vrax

I guess that check was to induce bluff and our Hero insta-called.
Sadly not. I dont know why but I folded it. Thats partly why I posted it. This is bluff inducing check/call for me these days against these aggressive opponents.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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mixchange
Old 12-22-2006, 11:50 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vrax
$4 preflop, $7 on flop, stick it in rest on turn. Stack-a-donk line.
Barf. Sounds like me in my "How's This" thread currently going, 'cept I'm the overpair.
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IowaSkinsFan
Old 12-23-2006, 06:40 AM #14 (permalink)  
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IowaSkinsFan will become famous soon enoughIowaSkinsFan will become famous soon enough
 How easy is it for this guy to shove with a draw here? How easy is it for him to shove Jx, QQ, KK? Really fucking easy.
Check out the new blog!!!
 
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Miffed22001
Old 12-23-2006, 07:30 AM #15 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
you fold if you bet and he pushes (although the pot odds suck)
This is a crazy spot for a bet/fold.

At the turn the pot is 13.25.

If I bet x, he pushes 17.50.

I then have to call 17.50-x to win 17.50+13.25+x = 30.25+x

To make the call after ive bet i need (17.5-x)/48.25 equity.

I have a 7/44 of hitting the nut flush if he already has one (slightly higher if he has an offsuit straight).

The difference between the equity I need and the lower estimate for the equity I have is therefore:

(17.5-x)/48.25 - 7/44 ~ (17.5-x-7)/44 = (10.5-x)/44

x | Extra equity I need (%)
1 | 21.59090909
2 | 19.31818182
3 | 17.04545455
4 | 14.77272727
5 | 12.5
6 | 10.22727273
7 | 7.954545455
8 | 5.681818182
9 | 3.409090909
10 | 1.136363636
10.5 | 0

If I bet less than half pot or more Im inducing a bluff and If i bet more than half pot Im pretty much committed just on the chance he has 2 pair/air/ something else.

Bet fold sucks.
i dont think i wqas quite serious about folding

Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics
because the hands you dont want to call when you have aces (things that can bust you like suited connectors) will be gone pre flop and the only person likely to call you, you will have absolutely dominated going into the flop, so its worth betting large there to get them out and take down a small pot, rather than be in the situation you are in there with a flush on the board and random cards that could have given him something like a 2 pair or something lame and crazy

this is dumb
crap hands are exactly the ones we want to go to a flop because AA wins lots of pots the majority of the time versus any other hand in holdem
]

so because it wins the majority of pots you think you should slow play aces and try and win that way because youll win the majority of pots? thats rediculous
im lost. Whos slow playing aces?
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wufwugy
Old 12-23-2006, 09:15 PM #16 (permalink)  
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 for some reason i put him on the king of hearts and a non-heart ten.
 
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