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OESFD and pair on turn, raise AI? (50NL)

  
 
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taipan168
Old 05-20-2007, 10:24 AM     Post subject: OESFD and pair on turn, raise AI? (50NL) #1 (permalink)  
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Opp's stats were 21/9/5.9 over 360 hands. Flat call or raise all-in on turn with my monster draw?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($21)
MP3 ($46.65)
CO ($49.75)
Button ($64.85)
SB ($49)
BB ($20)
UTG ($63.50)
UTG+1 ($49.10)
Hero ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, J.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.50, 3 folds, BB checks.

Flop: ($2.25) Q, K, T (4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 bets $2, Hero calls $2, MP3 folds, BB folds.

Turn: ($6.25) 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $10, Hero ????
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pokerroomace
Old 05-20-2007, 10:54 AM #2 (permalink)  
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allin on turn is good. possibly a raise on the flop too
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zook
Old 05-20-2007, 10:30 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Yeah, if you play here you've got to push it. I don't mind a fold though, b/c his overbet says to me that he's willing to felt it. And pushing draws depends on fold equity to be profitable.
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ShowMeAtlas
Old 05-20-2007, 11:25 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I think a flop raise is in order there. Probably ship it now.
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Vi-Zer0Skill
Old 05-21-2007, 07:26 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 Interesting hand. I wonder what he has on the turn? Maybe some two pair type hand, maybe a straight? He obviously puts you on a draw, and correctly so. I doubt he will put in a lot of money on the river if you make your hand there, so a turn push would be the only way to get your draw paid off IMO.

However, zook makes a valid point that profitably pushing with draws requires some FE, which you don't likely have much of. I am fine with folding the turn since you are probably behind his most likely range, and it doesn't look like he is willing to fold.


1,452 games 0.031 secs 46,838 games/sec

Board: Qs Ts Kc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.919% 23.97% 09.95% 348 144.50 { QcJc }
Hand 1: 66.081% 56.13% 09.95% 815 144.50 { AJs, KJs+, QJs, AJo, KJo+, QJo }


You aren't getting pot odds to call either, though it is close and if you think you could get $15 off of Villan on the river if you make your hand a call on the turn might actually be profitable.

($10 to win $16 ; you would need to be at least a 38% favorite to win the hand at showdown to be getting correct pot odds).

So, my answer to your question is; fold or call, but going AI on the turn is not +EV. Folding would be best unless you believe villan will pay off a value bet on the river if you make your hand.
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