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Odds When you have 3 of a kind, and 2 are on the board
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ender555
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04-21-2005, 08:29 PM
Post subject: Odds When you have 3 of a kind, and 2 are on the board
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 647
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The last 4 times this has happened, I have lost to kickers. It seems like every time i hit a triple, someone else did too.
What are the odds of that each time u have 3 of a kind?
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hagakure
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 215
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That seems excessive. You just gave me something else to worry about!!
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bigg_nate
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 157
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Say there are 10 people at the table. There are 47 cards you haven't seen, and your opponents hold 18 of them. So if everyone sees the flop, the probability of someone else having a set are 18/47 = 38%. If you're heads up against a random hand, the probability is 2/47 = 4%.
- Nate
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bdawg56kg
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Honolulu
Posts: 1,201
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This is an interesting point. When I first started, I absolutely refused to lay down trips (with 2 on the board) regardless of kicker, but when yout think about it, it really isn't that strong of a hand, unless you're up against a total fish. Here's an example that I sometimes run into.
You limp 5h6h from the button. Flop is Qd 5c 2d. Checks around, and the turn is 5s. Big blind bets $1.5 (.10/.25 blinds) and you raise to $4. Everyone folds and he smooth calls. River is a blank, 3c. Big blind bets $8, and now it's on you. On a board like this, what else could he possibly be betting with that you have beat? Granted he was in the big blind and could have anything, but the only hand you can beat that he could reasonably have is 54. What he probably has is a stronger 5, ie J5, K5, anything, or quite possible a raggedy boat, like Q5 or 35. It's obvious he doesn't have just the Q because he probably would've bet the flop, and your reraise suggests you obviously have a 5. In this situation I lay my hand down, unless his river bet is so small, that I am getting good odds to call. This kind of thinking has really saved me a lot of money lately. Hope this helps.
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face
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 187
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Quote:
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Say there are 10 people at the table. There are 47 cards you haven't seen, and your opponents hold 18 of them. So if everyone sees the flop, the probability of someone else having a set are 18/47 = 38%. If you're heads up against a random hand, the probability is 2/47 = 4%.
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I don't think this is quite the right way to think about it. Let's say you decided to limp from MP into a multiway pot with 79 suited at a very passive 50$ NL 10 person ring. 4 people see the flop, an EP tricky limper who plays suited connectors, you and the blinds.
The flop: K99. EP checks, you lead out for 1/2 pot bet, BB calls and EP calls. Turn: 4. EP checks, you bet the pot, BB folds and EP minraises you for 1/2 the money in the middle...
Now it's all well and good to know the odds of any random hand having the case 9, pocket 4s or pocket Ks. However, given the betting and your read, what is the probability that EP has 89, 910, 9J, A9, or maybe 44? Much higher than a random hand.
How many times have you said to yourself "What are the chances he has 79 for the gutshot nut straight that hit on the river...." Well, given that he was just calling your TPTK bets on the flop and river, that he chases any piece of the flop regardless of odds, and that he just went allin over the top of your 1/2 pot river bet for 30 more dollars, and never bluffs -- the chances are really good. This isn't simple probability, it'd conditional probability. P(pocket 79|all the factors listed above) = +- .8 (or something).
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Greedo017
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
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keep the full house in mind. last time this happened to me, i had ace 8, flop came 883, etc. etc. he had 33.
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i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
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bigg_nate
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 157
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Face -
I completely agree. Probabilities aren't a replacement for reads (if they were, computers would be incredible poker players). They're just one of many useful signals when you're trying to figure out what your opponent has.
- Nate
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