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Nut flush draw facing all in

  
 
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deacon_bluez
Old 05-08-2009, 12:06 AM     Post subject: Nut flush draw facing all in #1 (permalink)  
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Do I call this flop bet? Didn't really want to raise with the pf raiser behind me. Also, was the preflop call bad?

MP2 was 59/50/2 over only 22 hands (don't think I had that on my HUD at the time)

Btn was 10.5/5/1.6 over 57 hands.

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saw flop | saw showdown

UTG+1 ($9.25)
MP1 ($9.25)
MP2 ($35.80)
MP3 ($29)
Hero (CO) ($50)
Button ($49.25)
SB ($33.90)
BB ($10)
UTG ($50.75)



Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, A
3 folds, MP2 bets $1.50, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, Button raises to $5, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

Flop: ($15.75) 6, 6, 10 (3 players)
MP2 bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50, Button raises to $44.25 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero ????http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/images/smiles/club.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)
Sue me if I play too long....
 
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pokerfan
Old 05-08-2009, 12:40 AM #2 (permalink)  
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i 3 bet vs MP2 and fold to BT 4 bet. i really hate a flat call with AQs in these situations OOP. As played, we have to stack off on this flop with around 40% equity in 3 bet pot.
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oskar
Old 05-08-2009, 09:59 PM #3 (permalink)  
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oskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura aboutoskar has a spectacular aura about
 idk about 3-bet pre. - You're avoiding a squeeze, but it's hard to get value from the hand in a 3-bet pot.

With some weak-tight players left to act I might just call, but fold to a 3-bet from the button

As played, EZ call.

pot odds, dude!
What are your pot odds, what's your equity, what's your EV?
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mixchange
Old 05-13-2009, 07:02 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Odds of completing the flush on the turn OR river - 1.9:1 against
pot odds 1.75-1

if the Ace is a clean out we have odds to call, but yay variance
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Old 05-13-2009, 12:01 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mixchange
Odds of completing the flush on the turn OR river - 1.9:1 against
pot odds 1.75-1

if the Ace is a clean out we have odds to call, but yay variance
just stove it yo

Board: 6h 6s Ts

60.139% { QQ+ }
39.861% { AsQs }

35.25 in pot
37.75 raise

37.75 / 110.75 = 34.1%
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Old 05-13-2009, 01:12 PM #6 (permalink)  
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its close but he's never bluffing, and you don't quite have the right odds vs TT+, plus you'll be giving up information if you call, so imo fold.
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Old 05-13-2009, 02:32 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoSmeets
its close but he's never bluffing, and you don't quite have the right odds vs TT+, plus you'll be giving up information if you call, so imo fold.
yes he does
he needs 34% to call, he has 36.8%
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Old 05-13-2009, 11:43 PM #8 (permalink)  
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I have the pot offering him just better than 1.5:1 and he's about 1:2 to win.
Or, the pot says he needs 39.4% equity and he has 36.8%.

So I think I'm right. Also, BU is more likely to play AA, KK, and maybe QQ this way than JJ, which reduces hero's equity a little.
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Old 05-14-2009, 02:27 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoSmeets
I have the pot offering him just better than 1.5:1 and he's about 1:2 to win.
Or, the pot says he needs 39.4% equity and he has 36.8%.

So I think I'm right. Also, BU is more likely to play AA, KK, and maybe QQ this way than JJ, which reduces hero's equity a little.
he is calling 37.75 / 110.75 = 34.1%
also, I don't think he has TT in his 3b range
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Old 05-14-2009, 09:58 PM #10 (permalink)  
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this site is great!
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AFchung
Old 05-14-2009, 10:06 PM #11 (permalink)  
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fold preflop

Quote:
Originally Posted by jeebo1985
this site is great!
yeah!

http://afchung.blogspot.com/
 
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