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Nth level thinking.

  
 
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Renton
Old 08-12-2006, 05:34 AM     Post subject: Nth level thinking. #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is a fairly solid lagg regular. He, in the manner of some laggs like Ivey, Negreanu, and Hansen, makes small raises frequently to constantly be the aggressor without risking a lot of chips.

I have a ton of hands logged with this guy, and in this particular session I have reraised him something like 4 or 5 times in 50-75 hands. Usually I had solid values, but a couple of those times I had junk and was protecting my BB.

When he rereraises me big here, I just couldn't put him on AA or KK. It seemed counterintuitive for him to make this play with a big hand, because he probably believes I have a junk, or a big broadway like AJs at the very most. So I decided to make a big reraise. I think he lays down QQ- and AQ- here, and possibly even KK and AK.

Any thoughts here?


Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($752.10)
BB ($451.60)
UTG ($647.29)
UTG+1 ($127.90)
MP1 ($386)
MP2 ($1074.58)
Hero ($509.20)
CO ($406.50)
Button ($361.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, Q. SB posts a blind of $2.
3 folds, MP2 raises to $8, Hero raises to $32, 4 folds, MP2 raises to $85, Hero raises to $285, MP2 folds.

Final Pot: $376
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Numbr2intheWorld
Old 08-12-2006, 08:16 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 Nice play! The LAGG knows your range is going to be decently large for a reraise. If you think he's easily capable of making a play back, then this move is good. I'm not sure how someone could possibly believe you don't have AA or KK here...

You really think he would lay down KK? I have doubts in my mind. Even though i think you are really representing AA or KK, his image is loose therefore he might add QQ or maybe even AK to your range and call.
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TerryToma
Old 08-12-2006, 08:24 AM     Post subject: Re: Nth level thinking. #3 (permalink)  
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nh. We dont get that high of thinking down here at 25nl.

What do you do if he pushes? What if he calls and A rag rag flops? If you can do this with AQo, why not do it with something like 78s? Obviously you cant do this every hand, but I'd sure back off of you in the future without a big hand. You are sending quite the message. Did you show after he folded?? That might do quite the number on your table image if you had.

AQo is a lot of time a dominated hand in the villains range. 78s might have a better chance at him if he does put you all in and you have to call.

BTW, is this your standard AA/KK line?
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mcatdog
Old 08-12-2006, 08:49 AM     Post subject: Re: Nth level thinking. #4 (permalink)  
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Would you have made this play if you didn't have an ace in your hand?

Quote:
AQo is a lot of time a dominated hand in the villains range. 78s might have a better chance at him if he does put you all in and you have to call.
If they get all-in, villain's range is big pairs, big pairs, and big pairs. 78s is in even worse shape than AQo.
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TerryToma
Old 08-12-2006, 09:02 AM     Post subject: Re: Nth level thinking. #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
If they get all-in, villain's range is big pairs, big pairs, and big pairs. 78s is in even worse shape than AQo.
I dont have pokerstove, but was thinking 78s faired better against a range of AK,AA,KK,QQ than AQo.
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thenonsequitur
Old 08-12-2006, 11:50 AM     Post subject: Re: Nth level thinking. #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TerryToma
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
If they get all-in, villain's range is big pairs, big pairs, and big pairs. 78s is in even worse shape than AQo.
I dont have pokerstove, but was thinking 78s faired better against a range of AK,AA,KK,QQ than AQo.
I thought this as well. From two-dimes, 78s is a lot better than AQo against AA and AK, and slightly worse against QQ and KK. So for the range as a whole, 78s is better than AQo.

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 7s 391672 22.87 1315602 76.83 5030 0.29 0.230
Ac Ad 1315602 76.83 391672 22.87 5030 0.29 0.770

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qh 123893 7.24 1567203 91.53 21208 1.24 0.079
Ac Ad 1567203 91.53 123893 7.24 21208 1.24 0.921

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 7s 384742 22.47 1322093 77.21 5469 0.32 0.226
Kc Kd 1322093 77.21 384742 22.47 5469 0.32 0.774

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qh 483206 28.22 1223243 71.44 5855 0.34 0.284
Kc Kd 1223243 71.44 483206 28.22 5855 0.34 0.716

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 7s 379204 22.15 1327573 77.53 5527 0.32 0.223
Qc Qd 1327573 77.53 379204 22.15 5527 0.32 0.777

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qh 506094 29.56 1185055 69.21 21155 1.24 0.302
Qc Qd 1185055 69.21 506094 29.56 21155 1.24 0.698

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
8s 7s 714228 41.71 991623 57.91 6453 0.38 0.419
Ac Kd 991623 57.91 714228 41.71 6453 0.38 0.581

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Qh 405624 23.69 1228082 71.72 78598 4.59 0.260
Ac Kd 1228082 71.72 405624 23.69 78598 4.59 0.740
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Renton
Old 08-12-2006, 12:35 PM     Post subject: Re: Nth level thinking. #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Would you have made this play if you didn't have an ace in your hand?

Quote:
AQo is a lot of time a dominated hand in the villains range. 78s might have a better chance at him if he does put you all in and you have to call.
If they get all-in, villain's range is big pairs, big pairs, and big pairs. 78s is in even worse shape than AQo.
I made this play based on him folding 95-100% of the time. The cards I had were irrelevant in my view, as I figured this play was +EV with any two cards. Sure, I'd like to have had 87s, but eh, can't have it perfect every time.
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Renton
Old 08-12-2006, 12:37 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 oh ya my image in this hand is 14/10 agro-nit, if that helps.
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Renton
Old 08-12-2006, 12:40 PM     Post subject: Re: Nth level thinking. #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TerryToma
BTW, is this your standard AA/KK line?
I think everyone's standard AA/KK line when someone puts in a 3rd raise is to just reraise or push (or occasionally fold KK). Calling seems even more transparent.
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mcatdog
Old 08-12-2006, 03:26 PM     Post subject: Re: Nth level thinking. #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
I made this play based on him folding 95-100% of the time. The cards I had were irrelevant in my view, as I figured this play was +EV with any two cards. Sure, I'd like to have had 87s, but eh, can't have it perfect every time.
What I was getting at was, I think you should be more likely to make this play with an ace in your hand because that makes it less likely that he has AA, so your folding equity is higher. Anyway, I doubt he folds 95-100% of the time but this play is probably still +EV.
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Renton
Old 08-12-2006, 05:10 PM     Post subject: Re: Nth level thinking. #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
I made this play based on him folding 95-100% of the time. The cards I had were irrelevant in my view, as I figured this play was +EV with any two cards. Sure, I'd like to have had 87s, but eh, can't have it perfect every time.
What I was getting at was, I think you should be more likely to make this play with an ace in your hand because that makes it less likely that he has AA, so your folding equity is higher. Anyway, I doubt he folds 95-100% of the time but this play is probably still +EV.
ya good point there
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Miffed22001
Old 08-12-2006, 06:37 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 i like this
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