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NL100 - Huge river overbet with AA

  
 
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El Ninho
Old 08-19-2006, 10:52 AM     Post subject: NL100 - Huge river overbet with AA #1 (permalink)  

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Sweden
Posts: 18
El Ninho
My read: the guy is a complete calling station (hint; he had a fish icon over 1,000 hands *blub blub*) and while I could certainy be roped-a-doped here I feel that I am ahead here most of the time. I also strongly feel that he will feel "commited" to call my last bet after calling all streets so far. Im thinking Jx (probably KJ, QJ) is his most likely holdings but he could as well have kings or queens since he wouldn't raise these hands preflop (as stated he was extremely passive). Well thats my analysis, but how shrewd is it? Do I get away with betting this big against this particular opponent or should I try something exotic like a sexy river c/r

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $32.10
UTG+1: $31.45
Hero: $119.20
MP2: $98.35
MP3: $24.10
CO: $57.80
Button: $107.95
SB: $16.35
BB: $89.50

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with A A
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: 6 J 3 ($9.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $6, Button calls.

Turn: 9 ($21.5, 2 players)
Hero bets $13, Button calls.

River: 3 ($47.5, 2 players)
Hero is all-in $96.2
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El Ninho
Old 08-19-2006, 11:00 AM #2 (permalink)  

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Sweden
Posts: 18
El Ninho
Oh and yes, I could, and probably should have bet more on the previous streets, dunno why I didn't. The same situation would occur on the river anyway, tho it may be less of an overbet.
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Pelion
Old 08-19-2006, 11:32 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
Pelion
I make the flop $7.50, then 3/4 the turn should be $18, and then you should be just about able to push the river without overbetting too much. No need for pot control if he'll call down with top pair. As played I think theres a good chance he'll call a river overbet with alot of his range anyway but betting too small on previous streets makes it alot easier to get away from a river push.

Why the hell would you checkraise if hes loose-passive? If you check he'll check behind with a weak kicker. The only times he'll bet are with AJ,(maybe KJ), KK, QQ or something that beats you and hes not folding them to a push anyway.
You miss a bet against QJ and TJ without gaining anything at the other end.
gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
 
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El Ninho
Old 08-19-2006, 11:48 AM #4 (permalink)  

Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Sweden
Posts: 18
El Ninho
Yes, the checkraise remark was just a joke, sry for that lol. I agree with betting more on the previous streets, it would make it a potsized push on the river. Nevertheless I think the same question would be made (pushing or not), and we all agree that pushing is the right line, or should we wait for stronger than one-pair hands against this type of fish?
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