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ZwiFT
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03-20-2009, 10:49 PM
Post subject: NL100: f**ked up river
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Villain is 15/12, i chose not to shove the turn because if (even if its unlikely) he chose to do this on turn with AK, he would get away. He could also get away with AQ.
What do you do on this river? c/f, or r/f, or r/c
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($123)
Button ($20)
SB ($24)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($153.85)
UTG+1 ($57.50)
MP1 ($98)
MP2 ($41.40)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 9 , 9
UTG bets $4, 6 folds, Hero calls $3
Flop: ($8.50) 2, 9 , Q (2 players)
Hero bets $5, UTG calls $5
Turn: ($18.50) A (2 players)
Hero bets $10, UTG raises to $31, Hero calls $21
River: ($80.50) Q (2 players)
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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ewww.... I have no idea...
I was thinking b/f though...
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
ewww.... I have no idea...
I was thinking b/f though...
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i have 60$ behind, i cant really b/f into 80$ with the pot odds :S
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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This depends so much on how likely he is to float flop with AK and raise the turn with it. His line really really really really looks like AQ/QQ/AA though so there's a strong argument for c/f to a shove.
I don't see any value in leading river, though I am tempted to try and get it in on the turn under the assumption that he doesn't get away from AQ here.
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by d0zer
This depends so much on how likely he is to float flop with AK and raise the turn with it. His line really really really really looks like AQ/QQ/AA though so there's a strong argument for c/f to a shove.
I don't see any value in leading river, though I am tempted to try and get it in on the turn under the assumption that he doesn't get away from AQ here.
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If we can checkfold this river, but shove any other and get payed off.. this should be huge +ev as we are guaranteed to get value when we got the best hand and we can fold when a Q hit.
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OVERLAND PARK, KS
Posts: 303
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Just for my own knowledge really (but this is probably what I would have done):
Why not raise the turn? If he has AK I can see him maybe getting away (have you seen him play a TPTK yet) but AQ would be a little harder to get away from on this board. And if you were to raise would you push?
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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oh shit, you're right. we can't b/f... I'm guessing c/f works for me.
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lockpull
Just for my own knowledge really (but this is probably what I would have done):
Why not raise the turn? If he has AK I can see him maybe getting away (have you seen him play a TPTK yet) but AQ would be a little harder to get away from on this board. And if you were to raise would you push?
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My line smells set and im sure but not confident he could get away from it. either way he cant get away from it on the river when i shove, but we can get away from the hand when the Q lands.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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shove turn.....
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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I don't get leading, what else do you donk here?
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
I don't get leading, what else do you donk here?
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this also
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
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terrible spot to lead, as played open shove
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,455
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
terrible spot to lead, as played open shove
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yeah why are we leading a board villain is going to cbet nearly 100 pro-cent
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"the world def needs more bikeses"
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
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well if he has a hand he is representing on the turn, we are beat, and if he was bluffing, then we arent beat. i cant imagine a fucking worse spot to lead the river. c/c or c/f depending on what you think he's capable of.
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
terrible spot to lead, as played open shove
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What are you suggesting? c/c donk?
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
Posts: 3,280
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
terrible spot to lead, as played open shove
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What are you suggesting? c/c donk? |
what hands that arent top two pair+ would you also do this with? i dont think leading the flop is that bad, but vs tight aggressive opponents the best line on this type of board is often going to be c/c + c/c + c/something
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
terrible spot to lead, as played open shove
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What are you suggesting? c/c donk? |
what hands that arent top two pair+ would you also do this with? i dont think leading the flop is that bad, but vs tight aggressive opponents the best line on this type of board is often going to be c/c + c/c + c/something |
Shouldn't i be afraid of loosing value vs KK+ doing this, at 100NL it seems most regs cant even fold overpairs if i play my set face up
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nutsinho
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: flattin ur 4bets, makin u tilt
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so regs dont value bet overpairs heads up vs no resistance on really dry boards? they also dont barrel scare cards vs weak ranges?
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My bankroll is the amount of money I would spend or lose before I got a job. It is calculated by adding my net worth to whatever I can borrow.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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nutsinho, full ring regs auto pot control the turn with some incredibly strong hands. Its probably like the 4th most tilting thing about full ring.
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OVERLAND PARK, KS
Posts: 303
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by lockpull
Just for my own knowledge really (but this is probably what I would have done):
Why not raise the turn? If he has AK I can see him maybe getting away (have you seen him play a TPTK yet) but AQ would be a little harder to get away from on this board. And if you were to raise would you push?
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My line smells set and im sure but not confident he could get away from it. either way he cant get away from it on the river when i shove, but we can get away from the hand when the Q lands. |
So, and forgive my basic question here, but we are trying to keep him in the hand on the turn while still using pot control to be able to get away from it when the Q hits (both accomplished my flatting his raise vs shoving turn)? I only ask because (and hopefully one day I might be a deeper thinker in this spot) I think I would have gone broke to AQ/QQ in this hand no matter how it played out.
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,807
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
nutsinho, full ring regs auto pot control the turn with some incredibly strong hands. Its probably like the 4th most tilting thing about full ring.
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top three?
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gn2056
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Long Beach, California
Posts: 36
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What a surprise this happened on tilt, where my KK flopped trips three times two nites ago in cash games I played it aggressively and lost all three times. Where on the same nite I lost with AA to AQ twice. The same nite I got reraised all in for fifty bux holding AK preflop only to witness my hand lose to K10. I am in disbelief of what I see at full tilt, and as bad as the play is this kind of stuff happens way way way too much. No matter what anyone says about Stars, bodog shoot even absolute There is nothing like what I see there. Only time I have any confidence my hand will win is when I flop quads. The fact they have no badbeat jackpot speaks volumes about this site.
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I would rather have a bottle in front of me then a frontal labotomy
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gn2056
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Long Beach, California
Posts: 36
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by the way if you didnt call great fold cuz there is no way that queen didnt make fill someone up. Full tilt only puts cards there to destroy you.
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I would rather have a bottle in front of me then a frontal labotomy
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lockpull
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: OVERLAND PARK, KS
Posts: 303
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by gn2056
by the way if you didnt call great fold cuz there is no way that queen didnt make fill someone up. Full tilt only puts cards there to destroy you. |
Well I came thinking someone had posted back about my question and instead find this...... very informative. I think there is a bad beat section somewhere on here.
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Decision making - When decisions are not based on information, it's called gambling
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soulfire012
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Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 10
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Quote:
nutsinho Posted: Sat, 21 Mar 2009, 4:38am
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well if he has a hand he is representing on the turn, we are beat, and if he was bluffing, then we arent beat. i cant imagine a fucking worse spot to lead the river. c/c or c/f depending on what you think he's capable of.
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I agree with this. I feel like the only hand you're beating though is KdQd that semibluffed the turn, and it's questionable whether or not he's raising KdQd UTG. It's a tricky spot, but I'd probably c/c and go broke cause I'm bad.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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We get value from AK if we bet, but villain might also have a boat or bluffing, that's pretty much the range I'm looking at here. Since AK is such a small part of the range - we cannot be betting here. This is a check calling spot.
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I would need a read that he is bluffy/willing to bluff vs the line you've taken for me to do anything but c/f the river.
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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I don't understand something about our line: On the turn we think we have the best hand, then all of a sudden, a 2nd queen on the river makes AQ more likely?
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Girlfriend: Why are the werewolves more important than living life?!
Girlfriend: Are you on the forums doing the werewolves again?
Girlfriend: Soo... you forgot to run that errand, but you had time to werewolf? Wtf?
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
I don't understand something about our line: On the turn we think we have the best hand, then all of a sudden, a 2nd queen on the river makes AQ more likely?
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We have the best hand on the turn because we beat his range, QQ,AA,AQ,possible AK
on the river when the queen completes it kinda fucks it up for us when the part of his range that we beat now block us
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lets remeber that 22 is sometimes in his range as well, and i seriously doubt AK is going to put more money in regardless of who bets it, not to mention the fact that he almost never plays AK that way.
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TwoSmeets
lets remeber that 22 is sometimes in his range as well, and i seriously doubt AK is going to put more money in regardless of who bets it, not to mention the fact that he almost never plays AK that way.
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Yeah i forgot addin 22
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