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NL cash games are dead on the internet.

  
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-10-2005, 08:09 PM     Post subject: NL cash games are dead on the internet. #1 (permalink)  
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Online poker is for tournies and limit (As far as hold'em is concerned).

Discuss.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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edudlive
Old 09-10-2005, 08:37 PM #2 (permalink)  
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im all in
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lolzzz_321
Old 09-10-2005, 08:40 PM #3 (permalink)  
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You're silly.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-10-2005, 08:45 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I said "Discuss."

Then I'll pwn you all.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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lolzzz_321
Old 09-10-2005, 08:53 PM #5 (permalink)  
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THere are plenty of fish in the sea.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-10-2005, 08:58 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Triptanes
THere are plenty of fish in the sea.
And where are these fish going?

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Ivory
Old 09-10-2005, 09:06 PM #7 (permalink)  
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possibly at the higher stakes (i wouldn't know i don't play there....yet), where im at theres plenty of action. at the higher levels i could see it drying up as i imagine there aren't as many players
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lolzzz_321
Old 09-10-2005, 09:07 PM #8 (permalink)  
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All levels, watch Bodog 5/10 game?

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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-10-2005, 09:11 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Triptanes
All levels, watch Bodog 5/10 game?

Bodog will become what everyone said Party would never but has.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Ivory
Old 09-10-2005, 09:12 PM #10 (permalink)  
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are you saying all levels are drying up or theres action at all levels?
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Cocco_Bill
Old 09-10-2005, 09:26 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Thats strange since I'm making more on NL cash games than ever before.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-10-2005, 09:51 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
Thats strange since I'm making more on NL cash games than ever before.
Which is one of the reasons. The money flows faster to the better players in NL.

And the amount of breakeven players is much larger.

(this is all comparing to a year ago)

I should probably reword. Cash games arn't dead. But they arn't as good as they once were. But tournies and limits are still as soft as always.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Old 09-10-2005, 10:02 PM #13 (permalink)  
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In March 2005, my PokerTracker database pegs the average $25 NL full ring player at PartyPoker to be 32% VP$IP.

In August 2005, it was 21% VP$IP.
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biondino
Old 09-10-2005, 10:24 PM #14 (permalink)  
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Rilla, I can't discuss this unless you tell us the argument behind your assertion.

Dwarfman, my PT stats will say EXACTLY that about me!!
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-10-2005, 10:24 PM #15 (permalink)  
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What I'm trying to say is "If you were winning a few months ago but have gone on long breakeven streaks, or you're just getting to the game, limit and tournies might be a better choice." The NL games are far from unbeatable, but you'll have to work harder at them.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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biondino
Old 09-10-2005, 10:29 PM #16 (permalink)  
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So really this considers that a decent player who is no longer improving will nowadays be making less money from the game? You may be right, though I do think you're (probably) being too vague regarding limits etc.

I, however, feel my game is still improving, and my bankroll, BB/100 and earnings-following graph all reflect this. I'm only one person, obviously - but then's so's every person who could attempt to answer your statement!
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-10-2005, 10:35 PM #17 (permalink)  
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Reasons why. This is all for low limit online NL. Mainly on the party skins.

The party poker stack change.
Money flows from bad players to good players very quickly.
Money between breakeven players flows back and forth while the good players siphon.

This means that most bad players that were created from the poker boom have either improved to breakeven, busted or moved to a different format.

The structures of other forms of poker allow help slow the flow of money from bad players to good players. This helps perpetually maintain the softness of online games.

Live NL games are still soft becuase live players play far fewer hands than the online players so the good players win and the bad players lose but the rate isn't a deturrent from coming back (since they probably also play fewer times per week)

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Laeelin
Old 09-10-2005, 11:09 PM #18 (permalink)  
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I dont have anything to comapir it to, but I dont see how the games can be much easier than party poker....


My first thought is "500lbs of downswing?"

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-10-2005, 11:50 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Laeelin
I dont have anything to comapir it to, but I dont see how the games can be much easier than party poker....


My first thought is "500lbs of downswing?"
Nah, I've been playing the limits and the tournies after reflecting on my last few months of low and mid limit NL and chatting with ilikeace86, this is what I came to.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Bmxicle
Old 09-11-2005, 12:52 AM #20 (permalink)  
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nuh-uhhh
 
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Bmxicle
Old 09-11-2005, 01:46 AM #21 (permalink)  
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You are right, in NL the money from the bad players goes to the good players much faster, thus making fish leave faster. So from this one could assume that in NL ring a good player has a much larger edge over their opponent than in other forms of poker. So if you, as a winning player, have a larger edge over your opponents, the opponents don't have to be as horrible for you to make a nice profit. With the short stacks that party used to have, people could afford to be much worse i'm guessing. Now they can't afford to do this with the normal deepstacks. However with deepstacks, your decisions become harder and more important, thus giving you a greater edge over your somewhat improved, but by no means good, opponent.

I wasn't even playing poker during the party poker golden age, so i don't have the experience to really say, but Nl ring is far from dead.
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-11-2005, 02:49 AM #22 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bmxicle
You are right, in NL the money from the bad players goes to the good players much faster, thus making fish leave faster. So from this one could assume that in NL ring a good player has a much larger edge over their opponent than in other forms of poker. So if you, as a winning player, have a larger edge over your opponents, the opponents don't have to be as horrible for you to make a nice profit. With the short stacks that party used to have, people could afford to be much worse i'm guessing. Now they can't afford to do this with the normal deepstacks. However with deepstacks, your decisions become harder and more important, thus giving you a greater edge over your somewhat improved, but by no means good, opponent.

I wasn't even playing poker during the party poker golden age, so i don't have the experience to really say, but Nl ring is far from dead.
Where making the same points but comming to a different conclusion.

I'm trying to say that if you're a breakeven NL player or new to the game, go elsewhere.

And you have a huge edge over fish but against breakeven players you don't have an enormous edge. So as this trend continues and the sea starts to noticably dry up, NL will become a more and more difficult game.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Checkways
Old 09-11-2005, 04:09 AM #23 (permalink)  
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Here's my 2 cents.

It depends a lot on where you're playing. But it's impossible to imagine that the players from the poker boom aren't getting better. They are. It's just a matter of staying ahead of them. Whether or not I can do that, I'm not sure. None of us are sure probably.

I played on Party Poker recently. I multitabled 3 $100NL games to see if I liked it and to collect my bonus. Not only did I not like the software very much, but the games were SUPER TIGHT.

They sucked. It was no good. It was like getting blood from a stone. My monsters wouldn't get paid off and because the blinds are so small, when you make a winning bluff you get chump change. So I quickly cleared my bonus and jumped ship. After one day of playing I came out a little ahead and got my bonus. I'm quite sure that I can beat that game, but why would I even want to try? I can get better action elsewhere.

This is based on just one day, so I'm not an expert on Party Poker at all.

Live games are much different. The action is usually MUCH looser. Why? Because the hands come slowly, you can't multitable, and people just get impatient. They want action and they give action. I get way more variance playing live than I do online.

I don't know what it was like a year ago online. I only played live games. What I do know is that some games just aren't worth your time. A group of Rocks playing in the same game will do nothing but hand their money back and forth until one guy gets trips and the other guy gets a full house. It's bad for us when we look for a game, but it's worse for them. They're wasting their time. The blinds are too small and with the ability to play multiple tables and camp, it just makes for a poor game.

Will all the poker sites turn out this way? I don't know. I hope not, because no one wins. Even the Laggs can't get away with much with such small starting pots.
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Legendash
Old 09-11-2005, 10:52 AM #24 (permalink)  
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I think you're basing all your thoughts about this on party, party is a horrible place to play no limit. I've given up bonus whoring and moved to other rooms where the players are just plain bad, it's just not profitable to play at party even with bonuses. Try stars, they've picked up all the new fish due to their WSOP marketing and have a similar number of players to party now. Also they seem to be running their nice bonuses every 2 months which are worth doing if you play 100NL or higher.
"[This theory] is only useful for helping to calculate your luck odds. If you have a good read that you have a numerical advantage against your opponent, that your hand is "luckier"..."

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Irisheyes
Old 09-11-2005, 11:05 AM #25 (permalink)  
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It seems natural to me that loosing players will transverse from ring to tourney simply because it hurts to consistently loose money.

At least with tourneys they can always say 'Oh... came close in that one' and relish the thrill of the competition aswell as the money. Winning one out of ten S&Gs gives motivation to continue trying.

For loosing players in ring games it turns into just 'There goes my $25, oops, there goes another $25.' I know theres thrill in the gamb00l for the fish but how long can loosing money be a thrill when the loosing pattern is so painfully obvious, as it is online.

Live games are less available and less frequent and therefore benefit more from the once off gambler then online games.

Cosidering this I think the fish progression into tournaments will cause ring games to dry up.
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Bmxicle
Old 09-11-2005, 11:36 AM #26 (permalink)  
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Am i just a poker god and because of my l337 sk1llz i think everyone sucks on party, or (much more likely) are there still a hell of alot of fish on pp.

Although i do beleive the term fish becomes relevant as you move up in stakes.
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-11-2005, 01:56 PM #27 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Legendash
I think you're basing all your thoughts about this on party, party is a horrible place to play no limit. I've given up bonus whoring and moved to other rooms where the players are just plain bad, it's just not profitable to play at party even with bonuses. Try stars, they've picked up all the new fish due to their WSOP marketing and have a similar number of players to party now. Also they seem to be running their nice bonuses every 2 months which are worth doing if you play 100NL or higher.
I am basing a lot of this on party becuase it was the largest room with an endless supply of fish that has now shown distinct signs of drying up in NL.

So, I believe that this evolution will occur everywhere for online NL cash games.

If you want to stay ahead of the curve, start playing limit since I believe it'll be the big game a year from now.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-11-2005, 01:59 PM #28 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bmxicle
Am i just a poker god and because of my l337 sk1llz i think everyone sucks on party, or (much more likely) are there still a hell of alot of fish on pp.

Although i do beleive the term fish becomes relevant as you move up in stakes.
1) You're playing stakes higher than are being discussed.
2) You're a poker god.

The party games will be beatable as long as Party Poker exists. They'll just never be as easy as they once were where all you had to be was the tightest player at the table to win an unbelievable amount of money.

You can still beat the games, you just have to work harder to stay 2 steps infront of your opposition. This is why it may be a better idea to move on to tounries or limit.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Irisheyes
Old 09-11-2005, 02:14 PM #29 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

If you want to stay ahead of the curve, start playing limit since I believe it'll be the big game a year from now.

-'rilla
Because the fish will stop playing NL and start playing limit or because the good NL players (which everyone will become) will move to limit and not be able to play it good?
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-11-2005, 02:23 PM #30 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Irisheyes
Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

If you want to stay ahead of the curve, start playing limit since I believe it'll be the big game a year from now.

-'rilla
Because the fish will stop playing NL and start playing limit or because the good NL players (which everyone will become) will move to limit and not be able to play it good?
Becuase all the fish will migrate to an "easier game" and you'll be there to take all their scratch.

-'rilla

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You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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biondino
Old 09-11-2005, 03:03 PM #31 (permalink)  
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"If you want to stay ahead of the curve, start playing limit since I believe it'll be the big game a year from now."

That's like saying "stop having sex with beautiful women and move onto the back pages of the Sears catalogue" - you might never get rejected by the brunette on page 284 in the lacy bustiere, but it's a hell of a lot less fun.

At $25NL the fish will keep coming until poker becomes UNfashionable, and that's a fair way away. That's my guess anyway.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-11-2005, 04:33 PM #32 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biondino
"If you want to stay ahead of the curve, start playing limit since I believe it'll be the big game a year from now."

That's like saying "stop having sex with beautiful women and move onto the back pages of the Sears catalogue" - you might never get rejected by the brunette on page 284 in the lacy bustiere, but it's a hell of a lot less fun.

At $25NL the fish will keep coming until poker becomes UNfashionable, and that's a fair way away. That's my guess anyway.
Even 25 NL has changed from a year ago. And it's change will be slower compared to 50 NL and 100 NL.

"If you want to stay ahead of the curve, start playing limit since I believe it'll be the big game a year from now." is like saying "Break up with that beautiful woman becuase she's cheating on you." And it's not what's on the outside but really how loose she is when you flop your nuts.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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Rondavu
Old 09-11-2005, 08:54 PM #33 (permalink)  
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Party is no longer the fishiest site out there. There are much worse players in other places (Pacific, Bodog). Party and it's skins have great bonuses though, so it makes it worth it to stick with them IMO. I really don't care how fishy party is, as long as I'm slaughtering it.
It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
 
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Old 09-11-2005, 09:04 PM #34 (permalink)  
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Glad I started playing limit and SNG's then.
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arkana
Old 09-11-2005, 09:25 PM #35 (permalink)  
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I think you are jumping the gun.
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-11-2005, 09:49 PM #36 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arkana
I think you are jumping the gun.
You gotta stay ahead of the curve.

-'rilla

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You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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arkana
Old 09-11-2005, 09:59 PM #37 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
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Originally Posted by arkana
I think you are jumping the gun.
You gotta stay ahead of the curve.

-'rilla
Yes but you have to eat while the food is on the table.
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DaNutsInYoEye
Old 09-11-2005, 10:22 PM #38 (permalink)  
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Better yet learn to play stud. Currently these games are what NLHE use to be on Party. A good HE player with a very solid foundation in general poker theory could literally take a 10 minute 7-CS lesson and pretty easily beat online game up to 3/6, perhaps even 5/10. That is next to impossible to do in LHE. Of course it is harder to find games but pretty much all the games you can find, regardless of site, are soft.
TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
 
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jukejointroach
Old 09-11-2005, 11:23 PM #39 (permalink)  
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"And it's not what's on the outside but really how loose she is when you flop your nuts. "

that was some funny shit.
Unite and Annihilate!
 
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a500lbgorilla
Old 09-11-2005, 11:30 PM #40 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arkana
Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
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Originally Posted by arkana
I think you are jumping the gun.
You gotta stay ahead of the curve.

-'rilla
Yes but you have to eat while the food is on the table.
Better food at the neighbor's house.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
 
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The_Cheat
Old 09-12-2005, 01:35 AM #41 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
Better yet learn to play stud. Currently these games are what NLHE use to be on Party. A good HE player with a very solid foundation in general poker theory could literally take a 10 minute 7-CS lesson and pretty easily beat online game up to 3/6, perhaps even 5/10. That is next to impossible to do in LHE. Of course it is harder to find games but pretty much all the games you can find, regardless of site, are soft.
ya. razz too. razz is making me like 80 percent of my money right now, and i SUCK at razz.
Don't Hate the Playa, Hate the Cheat

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The english prefer tea and crumpets. Americans prefer to kick your ass.

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MannerBoy
Old 09-12-2005, 02:03 AM #42 (permalink)  
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Oh..well , i dont want to wake a morning and see empty NL rooms.
I dont want to lose my job !

Do u see why ?
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Vrax
Old 09-12-2005, 02:54 AM #43 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
Thats strange since I'm making more on NL cash games than ever before.
Which is one of the reasons. The money flows faster to the better players in NL.

And the amount of breakeven players is much larger.

(this is all comparing to a year ago)

I should probably reword. Cash games arn't dead. But they arn't as good as they once were. But tournies and limits are still as soft as always.

-'rilla
Yeah, it's true, that fish from NL will get busted faster than his bro gambling on limit.

Just like 5 card draw - skilled players had better probabilistic advantage - 1:3 is the best odds, usually 1:5 or 1:12 - and fishes were still drawing to shorts.

The same with texas NL vs limit, but slower. NL fish gets busted and thinks the NL poker is devilish, the other players are insane (bet the pot? thats SOOO crazy!), less showdowns and bigger pots relating to blinds.

Constant flow of new players, who fantasize about winning WSOP or other "I will be super master poker player", beliefs like "real players play only no limit", "cadillac of poker", "I wannabe like teddy KGB" etc....and NL tables are still full of loose callers and maniacs.

I'm talking about $25NL.
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Old 09-12-2005, 03:01 AM #44 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Vrax
Quote:
Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
Thats strange since I'm making more on NL cash games than ever before.
Which is one of the reasons. The money flows faster to the better players in NL.

And the amount of breakeven players is much larger.

(this is all comparing to a year ago)

I should probably reword. Cash games arn't dead. But they arn't as good as they once were. But tournies and limits are still as soft as always.

-'rilla
Yeah, it's true, that fish from NL will get busted faster than his bro gambling on limit.

Just like 5 card draw - skilled players had better probabilistic advantage - 1:3 is the best odds, usually 1:5 or 1:12 - and fishes were still drawing to shorts.

The same with texas NL vs limit, but slower. NL fish gets busted and thinks the NL poker is devilish, the other players are insane (bet the pot? thats SOOO crazy!), less showdowns and bigger pots relating to blinds.

Constant flow of new players, who fantasize about winning WSOP or other "I will be super master poker player", beliefs like "real players play only no limit", "cadillac of poker", "I wannabe like teddy KGB" etc....and NL tables are still full of loose callers and maniacs.

I'm talking about $25NL.
I think that NL cash games will stay online but may or may not be less profitable in the future.
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DaNutsInYoEye
Old 09-12-2005, 03:28 AM #45 (permalink)  
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Quote:
NL cash games will stay online but may or may not be less profitable in the future.
Awesome contribution... Here is mine: the sun may or may not come up tomorow.
TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
 
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razen_cain
Old 09-12-2005, 07:19 AM #46 (permalink)  

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i 4 table 50nl on party....approx 8,000 hands a week for the last 2 months.

I average 700 to 1k a week in profits...are you suggesting that these tables are tighter now than they use to be?
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Checkways
Old 09-12-2005, 07:23 AM #47 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
Quote:
NL cash games will stay online but may or may not be less profitable in the future.
Awesome contribution... Here is mine: the sun may or may not come up tomorow.
The sun will come up tomorrow. Have hope, man.
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Checkways
Old 09-12-2005, 07:27 AM #48 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by razen_cain
i 4 table 50nl on party....approx 8,000 hands a week for the last 2 months.

I average 700 to 1k a week in profits...are you suggesting that these tables are tighter now than they use to be?
Wow, that's freakin' good. Have you thought about moving up to $100 and increasing your profit? Or do you think 50NL is so easy that you should just stay there and own it?
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Checkways
Old 09-12-2005, 07:31 AM #49 (permalink)  
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Checkways
Quote:
Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
Better yet learn to play stud. Currently these games are what NLHE use to be on Party. A good HE player with a very solid foundation in general poker theory could literally take a 10 minute 7-CS lesson and pretty easily beat online game up to 3/6, perhaps even 5/10. That is next to impossible to do in LHE. Of course it is harder to find games but pretty much all the games you can find, regardless of site, are soft.
I can totally see this being true. But are the fish going to be playing Stud? Stud ain't on TV.

So if the fish ain't there, and I learn it, then that means I'm your fish! I see where this is going. Nice try.
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razen_cain
Old 09-12-2005, 07:42 AM #50 (permalink)  

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razen_cain
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Originally Posted by Checkways
Have you thought about moving up to $100 and increasing your profit? Or do you think 50NL is so easy that you should just stay there and own it?
I've tried 100 and 200 nl, both show a higher skill level of players

For me at least, 50nl is the soft underbelly of no limit.
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