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Im_new
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02-25-2009, 05:43 PM
Post subject: Nits scare me when they raise.
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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This feels weak, but what else could villian possibly have that plays this way?
Villian is running 4/2.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($4.95)
UTG+1 ($15.35)
MP1 ($7.95)
Hero (MP2) ($53.80)
CO ($29.95)
Button ($33.10)
SB ($17.60)
BB ($25.35)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J , K
3 folds, Hero bets $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75
Flop: ($2.10) K , K , 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.10, BB raises to $3.85, Hero calls $2.75
I should re-evaluate the turn, right?
Turn: ($9.80) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $4.75, Hero thinks villian has AK, KQ, 77 and is value betting him.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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hahahaha 4/2! What sample size?
I think fold flop is probs right if 4/2 is over a decent size, although he could be massively retarded with aces so call and fold to most turn bets may be ok.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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you only beat AA which he most likely will 3bet pre. Whats his aggression factor? Have he checkraised flop before? If not i can safely fold the flop. Without knowing anything about his postflop play i call and c/f turn
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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I just played with poker stove.
On the turn, If I put AA,77,KQo,KQs,AKo,AKs into his range, I am 42.9% to win, and he is 57.08% to win.
However, if I add QQ into his range then it becomes ~56.2% in my favor.
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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I dont see him turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff, if he does. You rape him later. His range is so small there is no way he is not stacking off QQ+AK on the right boads
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
I just played with poker stove.
On the turn, If I put AA,77,KQo,KQs,AKo,AKs into his range, I am 42.9% to win, and he is 57.08% to win.
However, if I add QQ into his range then it becomes ~56.2% in my favor.
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While this might be his preflop range, there is alot more factors comming into play here.
- Atleast 3bet AA preflop 50% of the time
- Calling AA on the flop 80% of the time
- Is really 77 in his range at all?
- Would he barrel turn with AA or QQ?
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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It was over 170 hands... and I hadn't noticed him much (lol obviously).
I folded--- Sure, it was a street late, but I got away  .
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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always call the turn here imo
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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I don't think he's calling with QK with that stats. So he'd have to have AK with the case K. Much more likely he was trying to trap you with aces or queens imo. I don't fold.
170 hands is not a lot either.
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Micro2Macro
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02-25-2009, 07:06 PM
Post subject: Re: Nits scare me when they raise.
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#10 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,465
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
Villian is running 4/2.
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lol, SN?
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Im_new
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02-25-2009, 08:04 PM
Post subject: Re: Nits scare me when they raise.
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#11 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
Villian is running 4/2.
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lol, SN? |
no idea what SN means...
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
I just played with poker stove.
On the turn, If I put AA,77,KQo,KQs,AKo,AKs into his range, I am 42.9% to win, and he is 57.08% to win.
However, if I add QQ into his range then it becomes ~56.2% in my favor.
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While this might be his preflop range, there is alot more factors comming into play here.
- Atleast 3bet AA preflop 50% of the time
- Calling AA on the flop 80% of the time
- Is really 77 in his range at all?
- Would he barrel turn with AA or QQ? |
Those percentages and ranges are for the turn.
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mxiu
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02-25-2009, 08:18 PM
Post subject: Re: Nits scare me when they raise.
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#13 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 982
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
Villian is running 4/2.
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lol, SN? |
no idea what SN means... |
screen name
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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Oh... it was "Das Volk"
Do you guys have more info about him in your databases?
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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nits should scare you when they raise!!
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mixchange
nits should scare you when they raise!!
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fair enough. 
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
I just played with poker stove.
On the turn, If I put AA,77,KQo,KQs,AKo,AKs into his range, I am 42.9% to win, and he is 57.08% to win.
However, if I add QQ into his range then it becomes ~56.2% in my favor.
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While this might be his preflop range, there is alot more factors comming into play here.
- Atleast 3bet AA preflop 50% of the time
- Calling AA on the flop 80% of the time
- Is really 77 in his range at all?
- Would he barrel turn with AA or QQ? |
Those percentages and ranges are for the turn. |
Yeah, but they are wrong when you add in everything i said
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
Quote:
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Originally Posted by ZwiFT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Im_new
I just played with poker stove.
On the turn, If I put AA,77,KQo,KQs,AKo,AKs into his range, I am 42.9% to win, and he is 57.08% to win.
However, if I add QQ into his range then it becomes ~56.2% in my favor.
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While this might be his preflop range, there is alot more factors comming into play here.
- Atleast 3bet AA preflop 50% of the time
- Calling AA on the flop 80% of the time
- Is really 77 in his range at all?
- Would he barrel turn with AA or QQ? |
Those percentages and ranges are for the turn. |
Yeah, but they are wrong when you add in everything i said |
uhhh.... I think I understood that much.  I was making sure that you knew the range I stated was what I felt his range would include (whether right or wrong, too tight or loose). Especially because you called the range I made his "preflop range" instead of an incorrect turn range.
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vennix
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Derby City
Posts: 31
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I would have check raised. How much were you sitting wiht at the time?
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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oh yeah, i called that one out wrong, of course i meant incorrect turn
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