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bef99hwk
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07-03-2007, 07:53 PM
Post subject: Never know what to do....
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#1 (permalink)
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Manhattan, KS
Posts: 107
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1500 guaranteed on poker.com
*I am sitting 6th with just over 11k in chips...blinds 150/300.
I raise to 700 with KdQd...BB raises all in for just over 3500 I think.
Should I race/be possibly dominated for almost 1/3 to 1/4 my stack? There are only 35 ppl left...pays 10.
Thoughts please?
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EzDuzIt
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Green Bay
Posts: 915
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mtt section would be a better place for this.
also posting what you know about the BB would be good.
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bef99hwk
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Manhattan, KS
Posts: 107
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like the other typical competition at this level...waits for good cards and reraises but he can do it with any pair or any overs. Some might bluff but I highly doubt it.
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Pants_101
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Nottingham UK
Posts: 442
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I'm gonna take a stab at the maths here, apologies if I get it wrong and I hope someone corrects me if I do. I'm assuming you are playing to win and so will call here if you feel it's mathmatically correct to do so. So the pot is offering you almost 3-2 odds, it's actually 1.6-1. 1/(1+1.6) = 0.38*100 = 38% to win is your break even point. Now you have to consider your hand KQd against the likely range of hands that your opponnent would make this move with. According to pokerstove if your opponent would raise with 77+,A8s+,KJs,AJo+,KJo+ then you are 38% to win the hand. So you need to think is he raising more tightly than this in which case you fold or is he looser than this in which case you call (putting aside any other considerations).
Hope that helps (and is not totally wrong 
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Must get more aggressive - Tonight we dine in $25NL! rah rah rah! etc
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Quote:
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According to pokerstove if your opponent would raise with 77+,A8s+,KJs,AJo+,KJo+ then you are 38% to win the hand. So you need to think is he raising more tightly than this in which case you fold or is he looser than this in which case you call (putting aside any other considerations).
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I know you said 'putting aside other consideratons,' but you really can't here. If this was a cash game, pokerstove is a great tool pending 100% correct reads. The difference here is that chips are more valuable because it's a game of survival with probably no re-buys. If there were re-bys, sure, daniel negranu the hell out of it.
I will quite often fold my 55 vs all in preflop with two overcards in a tournament. I don't think that this is a spot to be gambling, just yet. One of tournaments golden rules is to not get all of your chips all in when you behind. I make this call when the stacks are shorter and we have less options to work with.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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assuming opp isnt a total donkey and mtts pay for survival if you raise to 900 preflop and op pushes its a pretty easy fold versus his range IMO. 77-99 is amuch tougher decision because you then figure to be getting the better end of a race a whole lot more in order to think about cutting off 1/3rd your chips.
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Pants_101
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Nottingham UK
Posts: 442
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BankItDrew
Quote:
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According to pokerstove if your opponent would raise with 77+,A8s+,KJs,AJo+,KJo+ then you are 38% to win the hand. So you need to think is he raising more tightly than this in which case you fold or is he looser than this in which case you call (putting aside any other considerations).
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I know you said 'putting aside other consideratons,' but you really can't here. If this was a cash game, pokerstove is a great tool pending 100% correct reads. The difference here is that chips are more valuable because it's a game of survival with probably no re-buys. If there were re-bys, sure, daniel negranu the hell out of it.
I will quite often fold my 55 vs all in preflop with two overcards in a tournament. I don't think that this is a spot to be gambling, just yet. One of tournaments golden rules is to not get all of your chips all in when you behind. I make this call when the stacks are shorter and we have less options to work with. |
Yah I just wanted to look at the maths, think it's always a good place to start and I'm trying to get better at it. What if the villain's stack was only 2500 giving you 2-1, would you call then for a bit less then a quarter of your stack?
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Must get more aggressive - Tonight we dine in $25NL! rah rah rah! etc
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BankItDrew
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Losing Prop Bets
Posts: 2,789
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pants_101
Yah I just wanted to look at the maths, think it's always a good place to start and I'm trying to get better at it. What if the villain's stack was only 2500 giving you 2-1, would you call then for a bit less then a quarter of your stack?
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Definitly call. I'm not very good at explaining the maths involved, but I find a huge difference between calling another 1800 vs another 2800 when your stack is 11000. Most of the time you have two overs, so it's an easy call even in a tournament setting this late.
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