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Keilah
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07-09-2008, 12:22 AM
Post subject: My TPTK vs his turn c/r
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Northern BC, Canada
Posts: 658
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Villain 16/10/3 over 115 hands. I didnt notice until after hand but he c/raises a lot over my sample (20-30%).
Wat do we want to be doing here?
Also we thinking flop check behind is good?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)
MP3 ($27.50)
CO ($97)
Hero ($122.65)
SB ($22.15)
BB ($100)
UTG ($100)
UTG+1 ($31.90)
MP1 ($132.80)
MP2 ($114)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K , A .
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, MP1 calls $1, 2 folds, CO calls $1, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, BB calls $6, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, CO folds.
Flop: ($17.50) 6, 2 , 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.
Turn: ($17.50) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12, BB raises to $32, ??
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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wow this is gross. I think call and fold a lot of rivers but i think this is a set a lot and if you think he has a set too much then you could just fold here. Other factors like timing and how many of my tables he is on would influence my decision here.
Also I dislike the flop check because your 7x raise pre should be pretty scary and he's likely setmining here a lot.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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i pay the man money 
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Keilah
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Northern BC, Canada
Posts: 658
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by badgers
Also I dislike the flop check because your 7x raise pre should be pretty scary and he's likely setmining here a lot.
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Right... which means he usually has a pocket pair and how many of them do you think he'll fold to a cbet on that board?
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,521
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call PFR % can help you narrow v's hand here.
If his call PFR% is like 5 or less, he's probably not calling very much with broadways, and mostly pocket pairs. Also 3-bet% will help you eliminate AK/AQ from his holding as he may likely to 3-bet at least AK.
Is he positionally aware? If so, I don't see such a player calling preflop with a lot that you're ahead of after the turn action.
Tough spot fo sho.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,807
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fold
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jimmy44
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Place where I can spew
Posts: 1,391
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by daven
fold
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Yup, this.
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Keilah
Quote:
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Originally Posted by badgers
Also I dislike the flop check because your 7x raise pre should be pretty scary and he's likely setmining here a lot.
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Right... which means he usually has a pocket pair and how many of them do you think he'll fold to a cbet on that board? |
often enough and there are shit loads of cards you can double barrell and you have 6outs and a BDFD so that's quite a bit of equity.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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pokerfan
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: NS, Canada
Posts: 1,736
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if this unknown guy c/r a lot , i'm curious and want to see his river action. YOU should fold TPTK if a regular nit like me c/r in this spot, haha.
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jimmy44
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Place where I can spew
Posts: 1,391
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pokerfan
if this unknown guy c/r a lot , i'm curious and want to see his river action. YOU should fold TPTK if a regular nit like me c/r in this spot, haha.
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Good point!
I missed that Keilah mentioned that villain check-raises 20-30% over his sample. In this case I call turn and call 1/2 river, but I think I fold to a push (unless villain has a crazy aggression level on river).
As in this case villain's line seems more like he doesn't believe Hero has the A and thinks Hero is betting a scare card.
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mcatdog
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 3,654
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Keilah
Quote:
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Originally Posted by badgers
Also I dislike the flop check because your 7x raise pre should be pretty scary and he's likely setmining here a lot.
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Right... which means he usually has a pocket pair and how many of them do you think he'll fold to a cbet on that board? |
Fire a second barrel then.
As terrible as it is game-theory wise to bet-fold the top of your range, I think this guy has a set 100% of the time.
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bigred
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PROFESSIONAL TROLL
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Nest of Douchebags
Posts: 2,184
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Where do you draw the line for a high cr %? OP said 20-30% was a lot.
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LOL OPERATIONS
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vegascoop
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Straight
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 224
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As already said, you gotta bet the flop.
It looks like he's pot building and we gotta fold our hand that's already face up.
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Keilah
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Northern BC, Canada
Posts: 658
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2barreling and equity are good reasons to bet flop.
I think 10%-ish is a reasonable and hard to play against c/r frequency.
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