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Is my thinking right here?

  
 
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LordVTR
Old 06-21-2007, 03:59 PM     Post subject: Is my thinking right here? #1 (permalink)  
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This was a hand I played earlier today and thought it would be good to get some feedback on. I will describe what I did and my thought processes for my actions and would appreciate any constructive comments on my thinking, actions and possible omissions in my thought processes. $25 PL FR (I hope this is OK in the NL forum). Villain 1 has been semi loose, over 73 hands has seen 35% of flops and PFR of 19%, villain 2 has been loose passive over 93 hands with 34% flops seen and 3% PFR. Hero is BTN.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

SB ($19.25)
BB = Villain 1 ($25.10)
UTG ($14.50)
UTG+1 ($89.50)
MP1 = Villain 2) ($8.55)
MP2 ($24.85)
CO ($24.40)
Hero ($35.55)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8d Qd
UTG calls $0.25,
UTG+1 calls $0.25,
Villain 2 calls $0.25,
2 folds
Hero calls $0.25,
Villain 1 raises to $0.75
UTG folds
UTG+1 calls $0.50
Villain 2calls $0.50
Hero calls $0.50.

Just called from the BTN with 3 limpers in front, not great cards but I think pot odds make this an easy call in position. Didnt want to raise here as just wanted to try and see a flop for cheap with position. Villain raises 3 x BB from the BB, given the 4 limps in front, this is a weak raise I think, he may possibly be wanting action with something like AA/KK but if this is the case, its risky as he is likely to get multiple callers because of the pot odds he is offering. 2 of the previous limpers call leaving me with 0.50 into a $2.85 pot with no further action behind, easy call?

Flop: ($3.35) Kh Jd Td

OK, I think this is a good flop for me, I have a flush draw and an OESD with straight flush possibilities. I know I'm pretty likely behind at this time, but with 15 outs to hit the nut str8 or the 3rd best flush I'm looking to play here.

Villain 1 bets $1.5
UTG+1 folds
Villain 2 raises to $4.75

Villain 1 as PF raiser makes his standard cont bet, no real surprise here. However villain 2's raise suggests he has hit this flop pretty hard, especially as his stack is small. I doubt he has hit a set (he may have been passive with TT) and I dont believe he has AQ for the nut str8 as he was passive PF. He may have something like Q9 sooted KJ, KT or possibly Ax diamonds. Pot is now $9.85 so I am getting 2:1 ish with villain 2 to act behind. If I just work on pot odds here, should this be a fold here? However, I thought that implied odds were favourable given villain 1 was likely to at least call with a stack of $19 ish , and Villain 2 only had $3.05 left so if he did have the nut str8 or hit the nut flush, my loss would be limited to around $8 on the hand. So I call. Was this the correct play in this situation? If not, why not? Have I got the concept of implied odds totally wrong here?

Hero calls $4.75
Villain 1 raises to $8
Villain 2 calls $3.05 (All-In)
Hero calls $3.25.

Villain 1 obviously likes his hand, but I have seen him do this with TPGK. I'm still thinking he may have AA/KK/JJ/AK here. villain 2 calling the 3 bet confirms that he probably has a made hand here, at least 2p possibly a str8, and at a pinch, a set of Tens. To call is $3.75 into a $30ish pot, so pot odds alone make this a no brainer.

Turn: ($27.15) Kd

Villain 1 bets $5.25

Hero??

OK, I hit my flush on the turn, the result I had paid a lot to see, so easy push I think.

sorry if the post is long, but really wanted to show how I was thinking and why. Any comments about the play and my thought processes would be appreciated. I'm particularly interested if there are factors that I haven't included in my reasoning.
Lord VTR
Grant me the strength to accept the things I cant change, the courage to change the things I can........and the wisdom to know the difference.
 
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AHiltz
Old 06-21-2007, 04:25 PM #2 (permalink)  
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JJ/TT (which are quite likely) just boated up here.

Backing up a step, I think this flop is either a push/fold situation. With that many people in, and that much action with others to act, I'm leaning towards a fold on the flop.
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mixchange
Old 06-21-2007, 04:58 PM #3 (permalink)  
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fold pf

I pay off boats, too much value is missed in the long run to worry about it. I think you need to push this flop though. I don't think you can fold this with so much money in the pot. The turn may have you beat, but we have less than a PSB left so into the pot it goes, reload if needed.
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Penfold
Old 06-21-2007, 06:47 PM #4 (permalink)  
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raise/push this flop, youre folding out many better or even hands. im never folding this draw. win or lose when you show this hand down it will do wonders for your image as well.
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bigspenda73
Old 06-21-2007, 08:42 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 ARRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRINNNNNNNNNNNNNN

on the flop

just shove one it gets to you. 15outs in plenty against a set w/ dead money in the pot
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LordVTR
Old 06-22-2007, 08:16 PM #6 (permalink)  
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So consensus is more aggression on the flop with this many outs then!! TBH I never even considered this line, I guess I do tend to play a little timid post flop until I actually hit my draws on the turn or river and any observant player is going to notice this. But then again, I find a lot of the fishier players at these limits will go all the way with TPGK and will call an AI on the turn or river when my draw hits, so I guess thats why I don't semi bluff on the flop too often and try to see cards as cheaply as possible in these situations.

Thanks for the feedback everyone.
Lord VTR
Grant me the strength to accept the things I cant change, the courage to change the things I can........and the wisdom to know the difference.
 
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