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mxiu
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04-07-2009, 07:30 PM
Post subject: my hand sucks
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 982
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Initial raiser is a nit, CO is 11/8 25% fold to cbet over a lot of hands
No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($196.35)
Hero (UTG+1) ($314.15)
MP1 ($97.50)
MP2 ($101.10)
CO ($109.90)
Button ($100)
SB ($80)
BB ($21.90)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A , K
UTG bets $4, Hero calls $4, 2 folds, CO calls $4, 2 folds, BB calls $3
Flop: ($16.50) 5, K , 8 (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $10, CO calls $10, 2 folds
Turn: ($36.50) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks
River: ($36.50) A (2 players)
Hero?
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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bet?
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,455
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What could you possibly do other than bet here?
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"the world def needs more bikeses"
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mxiu
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 982
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and if you're raised?
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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super standard bet.... i doubt you're getting raised here very often at all, the line makes no sense if he raises. I'd probs call for the split/ catch retarded bluffs, although if you think he's nitty/dumb enough to play 55 that way you could maybe fold. Really not something yu should be worried about though, you will be raised so infrequently here.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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mxiu
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 982
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no one is taking the 25% fold to cbet into play? i have like 3k hands on him and 25% is horrendously low..
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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when they're that nitty postflop stats will take an awfully long time to get close. 3% calling raises = 100 hand sample max (there will be less because of squeezes preflop etc)... Obviously you're going to get an awful lot of variance in that sort of sample, although it is interesting and suggests that he probs has a low pfr and likes to call cbets with low PPs/ maybe float sometimes but the sample size is still not great.
Anyway it's not even a cbet! And this is a multiway pot, so it doesn't have huge relevance...
Admittedly there's not a huge amount in his range that will call a bet, but if you c/c you're basically hoping for him to turn TT into a bluff. I think he calls with KQ more than he bets with TT, so bet.
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,455
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mxiu
no one is taking the 25% fold to cbet into play? i have like 3k hands on him and 25% is horrendously low..
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If he was floating he bets the turn so either hes stupid or has SD value. He shouldn't have a set cause if he did he'd be liek OMG A FD I HAVE TO PROTECT MY HAND. So here on the river he has some form of SD value or hes a moron. So thus easy bet to try and get value from w.e stupid thing hes got.
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"the world def needs more bikeses"
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mxiu
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 982
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i ended up betting 10 on the river to "sucker" KQ and ended up calling a raise to 35 for him to show 88
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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wait, if he isn't folding to many cbets, shouldn't we second barrel the turn? Isn't there value in that in this case?
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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texa8
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Straight
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Melbourne Australia
Posts: 207
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i dont think you can get away from the hand on the river..
given stats you can b/f on the river without A or K showing up, but its all pretty standard surely..
Quote:
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wait, if he isn't folding to many cbets, shouldn't we second barrel the turn? Isn't there value in that in this case?
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i agree with this... generally if hes calling 75% of hands surely we are ahead of his range a large portion of the time and should bet the turn..
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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meh but the J is not a great card to double barrel and that 75% number is likely unreliable
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wakeup
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Oz
Posts: 117
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thoughts on betting the turn??
stnd check cos were not gettin called by many worse hands?
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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id have bet river same as you but wouldnt have called the river raise as recently any line that doenst make sense always seems to be the nuts played poorly by somebody who is likely not a winning player.
Probably results orientated though!
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mxiu
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 982
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
id have bet river same as you but wouldnt have called the river raise as recently any line that doenst make sense always seems to be the nuts played poorly by somebody who is likely not a winning player.
Probably results orientated though!
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or a bluff =P
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'oriented' not 'tated'
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TwoSmeets
'oriented' not 'tated'
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me no speaky english 
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jessyj
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 90
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bet 25
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Benzooka
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Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 35
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river bet 20/fold. Pocket pairs are the biggest part of his range; he either has a set or is "calling your bluff". 10 seems like an obvious but bad valuetown - it misses value and I don't think it widens his calling range. It actually looks a little stronger to me.
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If you planned to "suck out" you did the first half.
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