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My first 200 NL hand

  
 
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2_Thumbs_Up
Old 09-10-2006, 10:00 AM     Post subject: My first 200 NL hand #1 (permalink)  
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Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($205.80)
UTG+1 ($198.19)
UTG+2 ($208.65)
MP1 ($157.20)
MP2 ($295.51)
MP3 ($266.40)
CO ($272.70)
Button ($188)
Hero ($198)
BB ($115.99)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, T. Hero posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2, MP3 calls $2, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, Hero (poster) raises to $14, BB calls $13, MP1 calls $13, MP2 calls $13, MP3 calls $13, CO folds, Button calls $13.

Flop: ($92) J, 2, J (6 players)
Hero ???

How do you play this one? I hate it when my isolation bets doesn't isolate. I was totally lost here and probably screwed up pretty bad.
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pantherhound
Old 09-10-2006, 02:33 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 I may be wrong, but it looks like you have been lucky enough to stumble into a goldmine.

it seems with the texture like a bet here could get a caller or two giving you no information for your first hand in a bloated pot, OOP.

For this reason, in this unusual spot I may just check fold as it looks like there will be a ton of better opportunities ahead.
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Cocco_Bill
Old 09-10-2006, 02:37 PM #3 (permalink)  
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bet half the pot
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pantherhound
Old 09-10-2006, 02:56 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
bet half the pot
do we follow through on a safe turn with a flop caller? We don't know much about them and we're OOP in a bloated pot with a lukewarm hand.
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Cocco_Bill
Old 09-10-2006, 03:04 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pantherhound
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
bet half the pot
do we follow through on a safe turn with a flop caller? We don't know much about them and we're OOP in a bloated pot with a lukewarm hand.
If you get one caller check the turn, even on a seemingly safe card. If he has a hand you beat or a flushdraw he is mostly checking behind. If he makes a substantial bet when checked to folding is most often correct. The thing about the halfpot flop bet is that it will quite often take the pot down and sometimes get a call from a mid pair, this flop does not hit many hands, you also make the flopbet to push out overcards.
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Renton
Old 09-10-2006, 05:47 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 i absolutely hate betting this flop
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Old 09-10-2006, 06:03 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Yeah, I figured betting this flop wouldn't be much different from c-betting since I would be forced to fold to any resistance. I definitely don't c-bet here so I checked.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($205.80)
UTG+1 ($198.19)
UTG+2 ($208.65)
MP1 ($157.20)
MP2 ($295.51)
MP3 ($266.40)
CO ($272.70)
Button ($188)
Hero ($198)
BB ($115.99)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, T. Hero posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2, MP3 calls $2, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, Hero (poster) raises to $14, BB calls $13, MP1 calls $13, MP2 calls $13, MP3 calls $13, CO folds, Button calls $13.

Flop: ($92) J, 2, J (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $15, MP3 folds, Button folds, Hero calls $15, BB folds, MP1 folds.

The plan was to fold the flop but it seemed weak with that bet.

Turn: ($122) 4 (2 players)

Now what?
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Miffed22001
Old 09-10-2006, 06:05 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
bet half the pot

yuk
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Renton
Old 09-10-2006, 06:06 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 I raise him to like 60 and obv. fold to a push.
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Miffed22001
Old 09-10-2006, 06:06 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2_Thumbs_Up
Yeah, I figured betting this flop wouldn't be much different from c-betting since I would be forced to fold to any resistance. I definitely don't c-bet here so I checked.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($205.80)
UTG+1 ($198.19)
UTG+2 ($208.65)
MP1 ($157.20)
MP2 ($295.51)
MP3 ($266.40)
CO ($272.70)
Button ($188)
Hero ($198)
BB ($115.99)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T, T. Hero posts a blind of $1.
3 folds, MP1 calls $2, MP2 calls $2, MP3 calls $2, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, Hero (poster) raises to $14, BB calls $13, MP1 calls $13, MP2 calls $13, MP3 calls $13, CO folds, Button calls $13.

Flop: ($92) J, 2, J (6 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $15, MP3 folds, Button folds, Hero calls $15, BB folds, MP1 folds.

The plan was to fold the flop but it seemed weak with that bet.

Turn: ($122) 4 (2 players)

Now what?
now you lead and ask him how big he wants the pot to get.
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Cocco_Bill
Old 09-10-2006, 06:17 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
bet half the pot

yuk
Care to elaborate? What kind of hands are limp calling a 7BB raise pre flop?

JJ is not clearly more likely to be behind on this flop than QQ-AA, you think betting all of them is horrible too?
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Renton
Old 09-10-2006, 06:26 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
bet half the pot

yuk
Care to elaborate? What kind of hands are limp calling a 7BB raise pre flop?
hands with Jacks
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Cocco_Bill
Old 09-10-2006, 06:42 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
bet half the pot

yuk
Care to elaborate? What kind of hands are limp calling a 7BB raise pre flop?
hands with Jacks

Betting half the pot defines your hand nicely(AK does not do that here) and also protects your hand against weak draws. downside is that you leave yourself open to bluffs.
If someone then reps a jack my play will be opponent dependant, mostly I will believe them.
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Renton
Old 09-10-2006, 07:02 PM #14 (permalink)  
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 I can't believe you are willing to bet 1/4 of your stack into 6 players with an under pair in a raised pot.

I don't know the actual math, but I'd be willing to guess that we are a favorite to be up against 22, Jx or spade overcards from someone here.

Check and call or check and iso-raise seem like the only viable options here to me.
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Cocco_Bill
Old 09-10-2006, 07:15 PM #15 (permalink)  
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we seem to have a very different style of play Renton. I don't think you have ever agreed with any of my play.
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Renton
Old 09-10-2006, 07:21 PM #16 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill
we seem to have a very different style of play Renton. I don't think you have ever agreed with any of my play.
i don't recall disagreeing with you on too many hands
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Warpe
Old 09-10-2006, 08:29 PM #17 (permalink)  
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 Is anyone limping here preflop?



 
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Miffed22001
Old 09-10-2006, 08:48 PM #18 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
Is anyone limping here preflop?
yes, or a modest raise to pot build. Protecting here is a little meh/ugly for me.

Quote:
Care to elaborate? What kind of hands are limp calling a 7BB raise pre flop?

JJ is not clearly more likely to be behind on this flop than QQ-AA, you think betting all of them is horrible too?
Half pot achieves nothing. Any jack calls, any spade draw calls perhaps even a few mid pps call too perhaps (its party remember)
Betting on the flop bloats the pot on later streets when we might find the pot odds difficult to fold to even if obvious draws dont complete and we cant be sure our hand is good to start with.
Check/call lead turn or check then lead turn is a scary line in most circumstances. It shows we like our hand so we might get an overcall from a poor/average player who doesnt understand our line but it also prevents us from losing a lot to a jack as they want to raise and play a big pot. Sure, it gives a flush draw the chance to push us off the pot but our line is still quite scary considering we raised preflop; a flush draw could be drawing dead.

Betting the flop just makes an already bloated pot get out of control. With all the callers this might as well be a limped pot.
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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 09-10-2006, 09:22 PM #19 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
Is anyone limping here preflop?
I was thinking the same thing. If the first limper calls the rest are usually calling. They're aren't going to be many good flops for you and betting into 6 players in an already large pot is not going to be fun.

As for after the flop I'm not sure. Check/call and leading is ok but I think is bad overall. Rentons idea of check/raising isn't as bad I don't think. The problem is if you get flat called.
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Renton
Old 09-10-2006, 09:27 PM #20 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher
Rentons idea of check/raising isn't as bad I don't think. The problem is if you get flat called.
I meant check-raising the weak 15 bettor.
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Fnord
Old 09-10-2006, 10:43 PM #21 (permalink)  
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Checking here is terrible. We figure to have the best hand in a juicy raised pot.

My toughest decision here was if we want to bet out or just push. With a ~$100 stack this is a really easy push, as we'd love to pot it and be all-in. With 2x pot behind, we probably have to play poker.

Renton, there is half a stack in the pot and no one figures to have jack. We can't play this like a $10 pot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y
 
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zook
Old 09-10-2006, 11:02 PM #22 (permalink)  
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I this thread. Good players disagreeing = edumacation. I'm curious for more opinions on the pre-flop raise. I was in a similar situation in this hand:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-42773.htm

And in retrospect wonder if I should have limped from the SB (with JJ) or raised less.
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Warpe
Old 09-10-2006, 11:23 PM #23 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
We figure to have the best hand in a juicy raised pot.
You arrive at this conclusion how? With these pot odds, pretty well any paint is calling preflop. There's 5 callers with 10 cards between them. We figure to have the second best hand if we're lucky.



 
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NLHE lahooozaher
Old 09-11-2006, 12:13 AM #24 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
Originally Posted by NLHE lahooozaher
Rentons idea of check/raising isn't as bad I don't think. The problem is if you get flat called.
I meant check-raising the weak 15 bettor.
As did I. Guess I should have clarified to checking, seeing what happened, a $15 bet and then I would c/r. I wouldn't check planning to raise.
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Miffed22001
Old 09-11-2006, 12:24 AM #25 (permalink)  
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 if im CO in this hand and i have JTo or J9s im not folding it here preflop looking at the pot.

I think the biggest problem with the hand is really whether to raise preflop or not.
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Renton
Old 09-11-2006, 01:04 AM #26 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fnord
Checking here is terrible. We figure to have the best hand in a juicy raised pot.

My toughest decision here was if we want to bet out or just push. With a ~$100 stack this is a really easy push, as we'd love to pot it and be all-in. With 2x pot behind, we probably have to play poker.

Renton, there is half a stack in the pot and no one figures to have jack. We can't play this like a $10 pot.

i really hate the idea of just handing our stack to anyone who just hit trips
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The Izebox
Old 09-11-2006, 01:51 AM #27 (permalink)  
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This moes down to whether or not you want to bet your stack that none of those five limp/callers have that jack. The table is obviously weak, I think that this is a situation where you could wait for a better spot.

That being said it is also possible that you have the best hand. I like a decent checkraise of the raiser. If youre going to play the hand, then play it, define your hand on the flop. If not, check fold the flop. If dude is calling a big checkraise, then youre beat. At the least you have a tarnished image, and hopefully itll pay off in later hands.

I tell you what, tho, I HATE playing underpairs OOP with 5 callers.
Me? I always tell the truth.

Even when I lie.
 
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martindcx1e
Old 09-11-2006, 05:50 AM #28 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
i really hate the idea of just handing our stack to anyone who just hit trips
Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
 
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Renton
Old 09-11-2006, 07:51 AM #29 (permalink)  
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 tl;dr






<renton> http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...793&highlight= Am I a pussy for my sentiments in this thread?
<BillyBibbit> i play the little 200 person ones on full tilt and absolute and poker room etc.
<Bailey> ya
<Bailey> thats what i normally do
<Bailey> play the small field with high buyin ones
<Laeelin[Ring]> i'm in a limit MTT with 200 entrants right now
<Laeelin[Ring]> almost to the money
<Laeelin[Ring]> yesterday i finished 12th
<BillyBibbit> renton
<BillyBibbit> what would you do there with aa
<Laeelin[Ring]> a bit ago i finished 11th
<Laeelin[Ring]> lots of "almost" finished lately
<renton> i'd never be in that spot with AA, but if so, then I'd check
<renton> its a ridiculous concept because I'd never be there
<BillyBibbit> huh?
<BillyBibbit> why not
<BillyBibbit> he raised from the SB and got a bunch of callers
<renton> he didn't raise enough
<renton> i'd make it at least 19-20 in that spot with AA
<renton> maybe even more
<Bailey> I won $ on betting on pridefc fights today
<renton> and probably with JJ as well
<renton> but I am not betting that flop without squarely JJ, 22, AsXs
<BillyBibbit> i think you're giving up a lot
<BillyBibbit> those guys obviously suck something fierce
<BillyBibbit> you're liable to get called down by 33
<renton> ya but that doesn't mean they can't have a jack
<BillyBibbit> exactly! and they suck bad enough that they'll let you know whether they have a jack or 33 before you're to deep
<renton> we are a fave to be up against a J or better
<BillyBibbit> so what
<BillyBibbit> no one suggested betting pot
<renton> its ultra high variance and low ev to bet this flop if its +EV at all
<renton> i am not saying to check fold, just saying theres no reason to bet
<lambchop> ok so i'm just getting to reading this
<lambchop> and i also dont see any reason to bet the flop
<BillyBibbit> because lots of worse hands will call you because your opponents are terrible
<renton> BAM nigga, too bad we are both losing money at ring at the moment
<renton> no cred between me and lamb
<lambchop> and if u get called.....where are u in the hand?
<lambchop> u're now playing a big pot with like zero info
<renton> and you end up giving up the pot on the turn to aggros with flush draw
<BillyBibbit> dude
<BillyBibbit> do those guys look like aggros to you
<renton> its 6 way, theres bound to be a bad agressive player
<lambchop> ok, so hypothetically, u bet
<lambchop> i doubt u ever take it down there
<lambchop> so u either get called or raised
<lambchop> u almost have to fold to a raise, correct?
<BillyBibbit> i would think so unless there were exceptional circumstances
<lambchop> and if u're called and turn is 3d, then what?
<lambchop> that is the key point
<lambchop> what do u do on the turn?
<lambchop> i couldnt tell you
<renton> I think hero made a massive mistake with his preflop bet. He should have bet 20, just limped with, or maybe a sweetener raise to 9
<lambchop> cuz i would have zero clue where i'm at
<BillyBibbit> that's true renton
<lambchop> ...
<lambchop> can anyone tell me what u do on a 3d turn?
<lambchop> after betting $50 and getting called?
<BillyBibbit> it'd depend a lot on reads and stack sizes
<BillyBibbit> either check call or check fold
<renton> you are either committing your stack on basically a hopeless bluff, or you are checkfolding
<lambchop> looking at info provided...
<lambchop> stack sizes will most likely be close to even
<lambchop> we will effectively have $130 stacks
<lambchop> with $192 in the pot
<lambchop> and i say the chances of buying the pot on the flop is like 5%
<lambchop> at max
<BillyBibbit> if that's the case then it's an easy bet
<BillyBibbit> because you rate to have the best hand WAY more than 5% of the time
<lambchop> no way
<lambchop> there are 6 hands in the pot
<BillyBibbit> and can follow up all in and prob still be +EV if you're opponents are that bad
<lambchop> name 5 hands u beat
<renton> see checking allows us to see if theres a flop raise war. I am able to get away from very very strong hands like weak trips or AA in multiway pots checking oop by making sure no one wants to get all in on a scary flop
<lambchop> that are in this pot
<lambchop> with 6 callers
<BillyBibbit> what hands to people limp and call $14 with
<lambchop> AJ, KJ, QJ, JTs
<renton> it isn't like its going to get checked around, so we don't need to bet to protect
<lambchop> all pocket pairs
<lambchop> i wouldnt be shocked to be shown 22
<lambchop> u're barely ahead of AsKs, AsQs, etc.
<lambchop> u beat 33-99
<renton> ya billy most fish will call even the biggest raises cold with JTs just 'cuz its a great drawing hand'
<Laeelin[Ring]> 55 is a drawing hand, JTs is the nuts
<lambchop> in my opinion
<lambchop> JJx is like the worst flop in history 6way
<Laeelin[Ring]> yeah
<lambchop> people play suited Jacks like the nuts all the time
<BillyBibbit> how do i copy an above line of text from the chat
<Laeelin[Ring]> highlight it
<renton> select, hold down and ctrl c
<Laeelin[Ring]> and it autocopies
<lambchop> then hit cntrl+C
<renton> oh shit you don't have to ctrl c
<renton> awesome
<Laeelin[Ring]>
<lambchop> Renton, there is half a stack in the pot and no one figures to have jack.
<renton> that is what I have always done
<lambchop> how does noone figure to have a jack?
<renton> who says that fnord?
<lambchop> yes
<BillyBibbit> <renton> but I am not betting that flop without squarely JJ, 22, AsXs, i don't see how this is any different from saying i am not entering a pot preflop without AA, KK, AKs
<renton> its a lot different
<lambchop> if effective stacks were 600 bbs
<lambchop> this would be different
<lambchop> but they arent
<lambchop> u cant afford to find out where u are at
<renton> its more like saying: if that 10/2 guy raises UTG, and then that 8/1 reraises, and then that 15/4 reraises all in, I ain't calling on the BB preflop without AA
<BillyBibbit> these guys are not nits though
<BillyBibbit> all i'm saying is that if you bet half pot
<lambchop> even more reason to not bet
<lambchop> because the fact that they arent nits
<lambchop> increases the chance of them having a J
<BillyBibbit> it also increases the chance of them having a 5, what does that have to do with the hand though
<BillyBibbit> they could have anything and you crush a random hand
<lambchop> but
<lambchop> the problem is
<lambchop> u are assuming u take it down on the flop
<renton> also you must understand how much strength a 1/2 pot flop bet into 6 players from oop means. It means we aren't getting called by worse hands ever.
<BillyBibbit> lol
<lambchop> by betting the flop u are effectively committing yourself on a non-spade turn
<Laeelin[Ring]> <renton> also you must understand how much strength a 1/2 pot flop bet into 6 players from oop means. It means we aren't getting called by worse hands ever.
<Laeelin[Ring]> thats the key for me
<BillyBibbit> my whole point is that you are underestimating the extent to which people will spew at you with worse pairs
<Laeelin[Ring]> "we aren't getting called by worse hands ever."
<BillyBibbit> renton if your above statement were correct, then i would agree with you
<BillyBibbit> i think it's so wrong it's laughable to be honest
<BillyBibbit> no offense
<BillyBibbit> look at the preflop action and tell me those aren't players who are calling you with worse hands
<lambchop> billy so u're saying u're allin on the turn if your bet is called?
<BillyBibbit> maybe, maybe not
<BillyBibbit> i'd have a decision to make
<lambchop> but the pot would be almost twice your stack at that point
<lambchop> so if u check and opp. pushes
<BillyBibbit> it's a tough spot that hero has gotten himself into with a terrible raise size preflop as renton as pointed out
<lambchop> u'd be getting like 4-6:1 to call
<renton> i don't understand why you think these guys are donkeys, just because they limpcalled with massive pot and implied odds
<lambchop> Button calls $13
<lambchop> if i'm button
<lambchop> i call with 30-40% of hands
<lambchop> easy
<renton> any two cards just about
<BillyBibbit> ya but what about the early position dudes
<renton> any two cards that i'd have limped behind with in the first place
<renton> they could have had 88/99/JJ/AQ etc
<lambchop> pretty much
<BillyBibbit> i think those calls are terrible with pretty much anything because there's such a huge chance a late position guy will decide the pot is big and punch his 22
<renton> ep dudes*
<lambchop> noone in LP is punching 22
<renton> nits limpcall in ep with big hands like AKs and JJ all the time
<lambchop> see the thing is
<lambchop> the most likely hands they limp/call with
<lambchop> are mid-range hands
<lambchop> u're not gonna see QQ-AA
<lambchop> u're gonna see middle suited connectors, and broadways
<lambchop> and pairs
<renton> checking allows us to exploit our relative position on the flop
<renton> betting makes sure we are out of relative position for the rest of the hand
<Laeelin[Ring]> and you can be sure there will be at least one bet on the flop
<BillyBibbit> well that's a little bit misleading because the pot is so huge that there's 1 or at most 2 remaining decision in the hand
<BillyBibbit> anyway let me look at pokerstove for a second i want to see something
<lambchop> im running a pokerstove calc right now
<lambchop> its gonna take like 30 minutes
<lambchop> for 6-way
<renton> a significant percentage of the time when we check, someone will bet, someone will push, and then we make an easy fold. This is the primary reason why I check.
<lambchop> i agree
<lambchop> or...
<BillyBibbit> i agree that that's an advantage of checking
<lambchop> as it happened
<lambchop> 1 person bet
<renton> weakly
<renton> so we can raise
<lambchop> and we get the pot HU and under some control
<BillyBibbit> so what do you do if he calls and the turn is 3d?
<BillyBibbit> how is that different
<BillyBibbit> some players bet like that with 22 or a jack
<renton> check and fold
<lambchop> i check/fold to a bigger bet on the flop
<lambchop> i actually just call the weak flop bet
<renton> unless its from position, i do as well
<renton> (check fold that is
<lambchop> cuz we still have 2 people to act behind
<lambchop> by checking we get a lot of information without investing more money
<BillyBibbit> and you also lose out on a lot of value from worse hands that you say won't call but are wrong in my opinion
<Laeelin[Ring]> worse hands will bet though
<lambchop> it doesnt matter that they call
<BillyBibbit> no they won't laeelin
<renton> anyone here know how to use SketchUp?
<lambchop> cuz even if they call, we still have no clue where we are on turn
<BillyBibbit> sometimes the pot is so juiced preflop that you just can't find out where you're at
<BillyBibbit> that doesn't necessarily matter though
<BillyBibbit> all that matters is whether the bet is +EV considering the range of hands that will call you
<BillyBibbit> that's why you play within your bankroll
<lambchop> if u put $50 in on the flop, u are playing for stacks
<lambchop> do u want to play for stacks in this hand?
<renton> your EV for betting is mostly in fold equity
<Laeelin[Ring]> I must say.. this is a GREAT discussion
<BillyBibbit> i wouldn't exactly be happy about it but i don't think it's as terrible as you suggest
<lambchop> cuz the only way u are getting value from those worse hands is to play for stacks, doucy?
<BillyBibbit> and yes i agree with that statement lamb
<renton> ok let me try something
<BillyBibbit> i prob stack and get stacked more than both of you guys
<Laeelin[Ring]> no, renton is the king of that
<Laeelin[Ring]>
<lambchop> i actually....
<lambchop> would probably like this hand better....
<lambchop> if it was rainbow
<Laeelin[Ring]> I like check raiseing a lot mroe than beting
<BillyBibbit> i don't
<BillyBibbit> if you checkraise then it'
<BillyBibbit> 's actually true that no worse hand calls
<BillyBibbit> no one is betting that flop with 56o
<lambchop> Board: Js 2s Jd
<lambchop> Dead:
<lambchop> equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
<lambchop> Hand 1: 49.1414 % 48.99% 00.15% { AsKs }
<lambchop> Hand 2: 50.8586 % 50.71% 00.15% { TdTs }
<lambchop> thats why i dont like the flush draw
* tuff_fish has joined #flopturnriver
<Laeelin[Ring]> i feel like more hands bet than call on the flop
<lambchop> here is the way i see it
<lambchop> we are either A. drawing to 2 outs
<lambchop> B. flipping
<lambchop> C. crushing them
<lambchop> and i cant think of too many hands we crush
<lambchop> that will call
<Laeelin[Ring]> with that dead money, i'm ok with flipping lamb
<BillyBibbit> i wouldn't be shocked to get called by 66
<Laeelin[Ring]> i'm scared of the 2 outs option
<BillyBibbit> it's party remember
<renton> We bet 50 into a 92 pot. 5 villains then call (or raise) with Jx/22 obv. Or they have spades and of course call getting almost 3:1. Or they fold almost all other hands, but the biggest idiot on the face of the Earth will occasionally call with underpairs. Hence the VAST majority of the EV of our bet comes from folding equity. Do they all fold 33% of the time?
<lambchop> no way in hell
<lambchop> ok hold on pause for a second
<lambchop> everyone
<lambchop> lets isolate this
<lambchop> lets say that the only hands we get action from are the following:
<renton> Conversely: We check, flush draws check and take a free card so there goes 32% of our equity in the pot. Underpairs take free cards so there goes another 10% of our equity. Jacks bet and we fold.
<lambchop> flush draw
<renton> We end up with 50% equity in a 92 pot whenever it checks down
<lambchop> 22, 66,77,88,99,JJ
<renton> well maybe like 35% equity
<renton> with all the overcards
<renton> but likely there will be some betting and folding
<BillyBibbit> lamb, you destroy that range and it's not even close
<lambchop> and of course any J
<BillyBibbit> oh nm lol
<BillyBibbit> i'm an idiot
<renton> i'd be a lot more receptive to the other side, but I don't see how the EV in betting is even close to that of checking.
<lambchop> so lets say the range is 22,66-99,JJ, Asks,AsQs,As9s,KsQs, and any broadway with a jack, and any suited 1-2 gap jack
<BillyBibbit> hm
<lambchop> and lets assume everytime we bet it gets HU
<BillyBibbit> you think 6s7s folds that flop
<lambchop> ok, lets include 6s7s,7s8s,8s9s
<lambchop> let me calculate this
<BillyBibbit> you also have to calculate the range of all the hands they call with preflop and the percentage of the time one of the above mentioned hands is at the table
<BillyBibbit> that's why this is so tough to solve
* tuff_fish is now known as Lukie
<lambchop> lets assume in a vacuum that at least 1 person has a hand in this range out of 6?
<lambchop> i think thats a fair assumption
<BillyBibbit> <Fnord> Renton, there is half a stack in the pot and no one figures to have jack.
<BillyBibbit> i agree with fnord
<BillyBibbit> i don't think that's a fair assumption at all
<renton> i am not surprise to see two AI's on the flop with QJ vs JT
<BillyBibbit> i don't even know whether i'm betting for fold equity or value here, my head hurts and i have a calculus lecture to prepare, i'll think about this tomorrow some more
<renton> Mostly folding equity, a little value
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mcatdog
Old 09-11-2006, 08:01 AM #30 (permalink)  
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I'm BillyBibbit in that chat by the way. I think a lot of what I wrote in there is kind of incoherent so let me try to clarify my thoughts on the hand. The people arguing for checking are saying that

1. For the most part only better hands call if you bet.
2. Your bet won't take down the pot very often at all.

I am saying that it's not possible for both of those statements to be true. These guys figure to have jack shit a lot of the time, and they might even call you with some of their jack shit.
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Fnord
Old 09-11-2006, 08:11 AM #31 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
i really hate the idea of just handing our stack to anyone who just hit trips
As compensation we get the best of it with a $100 over-lay when someone doesn't have a Jack or ducks. Quite often we'll just win the pot. The huge pot and multi-way nature will keep people very honest here. However, you'll run into a frisky 88 or A 5 just as often as Jx/22 IMHO.

Random thought: If you just push here, is it +EV (even if it isn't optimal)? If pushing is correct....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
i really hate the idea of just handing our stack to anyone who just hit trips
I hate the idea of giving $100 to some fucktard with 88.

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Old 09-11-2006, 08:24 AM #32 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
You arrive at this conclusion how? With these pot odds, pretty well any paint is calling preflop. There's 5 callers with 10 cards between them. We figure to have the second best hand if we're lucky.
I'm not certain of the math, but I know from Limit poker that if this was 10 to the flop, then it would take some crazy action or a crazy read not to see a turn and I'm showing this down a lot.

My poker sense says you're not going to see Jx/22 here over half the time.
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Miffed22001
Old 09-11-2006, 12:05 PM #33 (permalink)  
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 checking>betting all in> betting anything else>check/folding.

IMO.
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bef99hwk
Old 09-11-2006, 12:31 PM #34 (permalink)  
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Is it possible to check/call the turn if he bets it like the flop? the Villain bet 1/6 the pot on the flop, so he might check behind after you check. Then just hope the flush card or higher card doesn't come out? Usually I just check/fold to strong betting and pick a better spot. Another thing, if the Villain bets stronger on the turn and we just check call again, if the flush card hits, could we represent an a-k suited or something for the flush?
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bef99hwk
Old 09-11-2006, 12:35 PM #35 (permalink)  
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I also like the thought of limping preflop...you have so many limpers preflop already and have the worst position, might as well see what the flop gives you and get out cheap with a board like this. Annie Duke limped with her 10's and then ended up getting out by a weird all in move in the WSOP
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Old 09-11-2006, 12:47 PM #36 (permalink)  
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I bet half pot here. You absolutely CAN NOT check this flop. It's bad poker. Your hand is ahead too often. Bottom line. It's a hard situation, but you make your bed you have to lie in it when the math is talking.

Also, in hindsight it's easy to say limp preflop, but hero was unfamiliar with the table texture, so it's moot after the fact.
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Old 09-11-2006, 01:33 PM #37 (permalink)  
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There is about a 35% chance that one of your opponents has a Jack if they have random hands. Seing as its a broadway card which is more likely to be played (throw in 22 as well, plus some oddly played QQ) I would think its probably closer to 40-50% that you will be behind here. Bet the flop (1/2 to 3/4), if you get more than one caller then shut down. If you get one caller then I like checking the turn and seeing how much he bets if he does, weak players will prob check behind with any hand that you beat.
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Old 09-11-2006, 02:27 PM #38 (permalink)  
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Quote:
<renton> We bet 50 into a 92 pot. 5 villains then call (or raise) with Jx/22 obv. Or they have spades and of course call getting almost 3:1. Or they fold almost all other hands, but the biggest idiot on the face of the Earth will occasionally call with underpairs. Hence the VAST majority of the EV of our bet comes from folding equity. Do they all fold 33% of the time?
So to you Fnord, the answer to this question is yes?
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Old 09-11-2006, 02:39 PM #39 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
<renton> We bet 50 into a 92 pot. 5 villains then call (or raise) with Jx/22 obv. Or they have spades and of course call getting almost 3:1. Or they fold almost all other hands, but the biggest idiot on the face of the Earth will occasionally call with underpairs. Hence the VAST majority of the EV of our bet comes from folding equity. Do they all fold 33% of the time?
So to you Fnord, the answer to this question is yes?
Yes. The pot size (the 2nd guy in this pot is potstruck for a big one) and multi-way nature is going to keep people pretty honest.

Also, if there are people to act, Jx will tend to call; two pair and flush draws will tend to get frisky.
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Miffed22001
Old 09-11-2006, 03:49 PM #40 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by arkana
There is about a 35% chance that one of your opponents has a Jack if they have random hands. Seing as its a broadway card which is more likely to be played (throw in 22 as well, plus some oddly played QQ) I would think its probably closer to 40-50% that you will be behind here. Bet the flop (1/2 to 3/4), if you get more than one caller then shut down. If you get one caller then I like checking the turn and seeing how much he bets if he does, weak players will prob check behind with any hand that you beat.
wow i totally disagree.

Betting here is just horrible.

Id rather just check and fold for $14 invested and a missed flop than bet half the pot here on what is effecitly 2nd pair in a multiway pot with two outs.
betting just makes no sense to me considering any spade and any over card is pretty scary never mind the fact that to defend our hand we have to put a lot of money in the pot on the long assumption our hand is best. Further, the math suggests if we half pot it we are dumb to fold to a push or multiway all in.
if we check we learn a hell of a lot more considering we know how many of the hands that will stick around in this spot will play this pot.
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Warpe
Old 09-11-2006, 04:00 PM #41 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rondavu
Also, in hindsight it's easy to say limp preflop, but hero was unfamiliar with the table texture, so it's moot after the fact.
Any play is moot after the hand is over. Aren't we analyzing the whole thing? In my mind, it hardly ever makes sense to put in a 7xBB p/f raise here OOP with this many callers.



 
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Old 09-11-2006, 04:14 PM #42 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
Any play is moot after the hand is over. Aren't we analyzing the whole thing? In my mind, it hardly ever makes sense to put in a 7xBB p/f raise here OOP with this many callers.
I agree that it doesn't make sense to put in a raise of this size. However, sometimes we make mistakes and get ourselves into tough situations, and sometimes tough situations are really unavoidable. I've noticed a kind of annoying trend on FTR that where there's a tough or interesting decision after the flop in a hand that may or may not have been played poorly pre-flop, a lot of posters will harp on the OP's pre-flop play as though that somehow absolves them of having to make decisions after the flop.
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Old 09-11-2006, 04:22 PM #43 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Quote:
Originally Posted by arkana
There is about a 35% chance that one of your opponents has a Jack if they have random hands. Seing as its a broadway card which is more likely to be played (throw in 22 as well, plus some oddly played QQ) I would think its probably closer to 40-50% that you will be behind here. Bet the flop (1/2 to 3/4), if you get more than one caller then shut down. If you get one caller then I like checking the turn and seeing how much he bets if he does, weak players will prob check behind with any hand that you beat.
wow i totally disagree.

Betting here is just horrible.

Id rather just check and fold for $14 invested and a missed flop than bet half the pot here on what is effecitly 2nd pair in a multiway pot with two outs.
betting just makes no sense to me considering any spade and any over card is pretty scary never mind the fact that to defend our hand we have to put a lot of money in the pot on the long assumption our hand is best. Further, the math suggests if we half pot it we are dumb to fold to a push or multiway all in.
if we check we learn a hell of a lot more considering we know how many of the hands that will stick around in this spot will play this pot.
Explain to me how betting is bad if we have the best hand here more than 50% of the time. If you dont agree that we have the best hand here more than 50% of the time then give your reasons.
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Warpe
Old 09-11-2006, 04:32 PM #44 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
I've noticed a kind of annoying trend on FTR that where there's a tough or interesting decision after the flop in a hand that may or may not have been played poorly pre-flop, a lot of posters will harp on the OP's pre-flop play as though that somehow absolves them of having to make decisions after the flop.
I'm hardly harping. But when one posts a hand for analysis, one should expect feedback on all streets. The tough decision is on the flop, but we could have avoided having to make it by limping preflop. Saying the preflop decision doesn't matter here is like saying the fact we never took driving lessons had nothing to do with the car accident we just got into.



 
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Old 09-11-2006, 04:45 PM #45 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
Any play is moot after the hand is over. Aren't we analyzing the whole thing? In my mind, it hardly ever makes sense to put in a 7xBB p/f raise here OOP with this many callers.
I agree that it doesn't make sense to put in a raise of this size. However, sometimes we make mistakes and get ourselves into tough situations, and sometimes tough situations are really unavoidable. I've noticed a kind of annoying trend on FTR that where there's a tough or interesting decision after the flop in a hand that may or may not have been played poorly pre-flop, a lot of posters will harp on the OP's pre-flop play as though that somehow absolves them of having to make decisions after the flop.

If he's trying to isolate, and he says he is, I don't mind the huge raise. In fact, I think it's too small. If I were to choose to play this hand in the face of so many callers with a raise to isolate, wouldn't $20 be better?
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Old 09-11-2006, 04:46 PM #46 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cardsman1992
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcatdog
I agree that it doesn't make sense to put in a raise of this size. However, sometimes we make mistakes and get ourselves into tough situations, and sometimes tough situations are really unavoidable. I've noticed a kind of annoying trend on FTR that where there's a tough or interesting decision after the flop in a hand that may or may not have been played poorly pre-flop, a lot of posters will harp on the OP's pre-flop play as though that somehow absolves them of having to make decisions after the flop.

If he's trying to isolate, and he says he is, I don't mind the huge raise. In fact, I think it's too small. If I were to choose to play this hand in the face of so many callers with a raise to isolate, wouldn't $20 be better?
Yes it's way to small, that's why I said it didn't make sense to put in a raise of this size.
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Rondavu
Old 09-11-2006, 04:56 PM #47 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
I'm hardly harping. But when one posts a hand for analysis, one should expect feedback on all streets. The tough decision is on the flop, but we could have avoided having to make it by limping preflop. Saying the preflop decision doesn't matter here is like saying the fact we never took driving lessons had nothing to do with the car accident we just got into.
I think you have a fair point. One should never attempt isolation OOP with a vulnerable hand not knowing the table yet. That's good advice in it's own right.

Given that hero did in fact gravely misread the table dynamic, and is now in a tough spot, you have to imagine the equity of betting here on the flop is +EV. I wish we could put together the actual numbers. I'm sure they're real close. I like the fact that any further action is clearly defined, and therefore overrides pot odds on a lot of occassions on late streets. To me, pot odds/committment is overvalued when the villains range is tight to a range you're behind. I think you can fold a lot with 3-1 and 4-1 in spots like that, because those odds become dirty considering the range you're likely against. I'm betting $40 to win $80 on this flop everytime though with TT, and correctly folding a lot to resistence with good odds.
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takesix
Old 09-11-2006, 05:01 PM     Post subject: Re: My first 200 NL hand #48 (permalink)  
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Holy hell, this is clearly higher level stuff. While a couple of the opponents likely have lower PPs or SCs (hello limp/call), it's gonna be impossible to distinguish on a bet if someone calls if they have Jx or XsXs. So either you're crushed or possibly in a coinflip? How is this at all +EV? Betting to "make" 4 people fold may be bad-ass, but that 5th one is what I worry about. With TT 6-way I want to set or forget. JMHO.
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Fnord
Old 09-11-2006, 05:07 PM #49 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Miffed22001
Id rather just check and fold for $14 invested and a missed flop than bet half the pot here on what is effecitly 2nd pair in a multiway pot with two outs.
This is a terrible way to approach poker problems.

We know the board, you have TT with $100 in the pot and $200 behind....
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Old 09-11-2006, 06:44 PM #50 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Warpe
I'm hardly harping. But when one posts a hand for analysis, one should expect feedback on all streets. The tough decision is on the flop, but we could have avoided having to make it by limping preflop. Saying the preflop decision doesn't matter here is like saying the fact we never took driving lessons had nothing to do with the car accident we just got into.
It's certainly good to make comments about other streets, but I don't think that's any substitute for talking about what to do on the flop because while this particular flop situation could have been avoided, you'll sometimes get yourself into others like it through no fault of your own and it's still worth discussing. I'll give you another example. I play a lot of tables on a crappy laptop with terrible resolution, so I have a ton of overlap. Occasionally that causes me to misclick when I'm about to click my mouse at one table and suddenly another table pops up over top of it. I remember a hand where I misclick-minraised AA under the gun and got 3 callers. Playing AA out of position with four people seeing the flop is a tough spot to be in but for heaven's sake that doesn't mean I should just check-fold the flop!

In other words, it seems to me that the attitude that you and Miffed and a few others in this thread have (and correct me if I'm misinterpreting your attitude here) is that because pre-flop was misplayed, you should now just check-fold, cut your losses and move on to the next hand. I think that's a weak-tight and overall terrible way to think about poker. My attitude is, there's $100 in the pot and I'm likely to have the best hand, I want that money! Stop being so damn scared of getting stacked. Giving up on this pot when you have the best hand is half as bad as getting stacked so you should be thinking of it as losing $100, not $14.
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