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mid set on 3 straight bet, raise, reraise

  
 
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allabout
Old 06-03-2008, 09:32 PM     Post subject: mid set on 3 straight bet, raise, reraise #1 (permalink)  
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MP1 is 30/11 but over a small sample of hands, CO is 13/4 over 1.6k hands.

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BB ($20)
UTG ($231.30)
UTG+1 ($99)
MP1 ($125)
Hero ($103)
MP3 ($99.50)
CO ($113.50)
Button ($42.25)
SB ($97)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7, 7.
2 folds, MP1 raises to $4, Hero calls $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, 3 folds.

Flop: ($13.50) 8, 6, 7 (3 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $10, CO raises to $29, MP1 raises to $92, Hero ??
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MuddyWicket
Old 06-03-2008, 09:49 PM #2 (permalink)  
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why the fuck would you check raise with just an overpair? especially after leading preflop? this hand really stinks. I can see CO with overpair but MP1 potentially has you stuffed or is an ijit and maybe unlucky with 66.

I'd count my outs and probalby time out.

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BankItDrew
Old 06-03-2008, 09:54 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Old 06-03-2008, 09:55 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 If MP1 is an idiot, this is a shove/call/w,e it is. I expect CO to have an overpair like 95% of the time, the remaining 5% he 88 or 66. I'm pretty sure this is a call if you include overpairs in MP1's range.


Board: 8h 6s 7c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
You 0: 64.259% 63.22% 01.04% 1568677 25866.50 { 7d7h }

Mp1 1: 18.253% 16.93% 01.32% 420161 32765.00 { 88+, 66, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 97o+, 86o+, 76o }

CO 2: 17.489% 16.17% 01.32% 401232 32742.50 { 88+, 66 }
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d0zer
Old 06-03-2008, 09:57 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MuddyWicket
why the fuck would you check raise with just an overpair? especially after leading preflop?
Uhhh...cause he's a 30/11 donk?

I'm more worried about CO, but even so I could see him showing up with 55/66/99+ as much as he does with top set or a straight. Is a 13/4 really calling the PFR with T9 there? I guess maybe, but there's a bunch of other hands he could be playing like this.

Call me a payoff bitch, but I can't really entertain the notion of folding mid set on a drawy board, even to this action. I felt this without thinking twice.
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d0zer
Old 06-03-2008, 09:59 PM #6 (permalink)  
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elipsesjeff
Old 06-03-2008, 10:02 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 Yeah, you're stacking off here. MP has the overpair, CO is not raising this flop without 66 or 88 and he never has the straight here. Combinations are equal amongst 66 and 88 and with MP's dead money in pot its well worth stacking off.


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badgers
Old 06-03-2008, 10:09 PM #8 (permalink)  
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BankItDrew
Old 06-03-2008, 10:13 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by d0zer
Quote:
Originally Posted by BankItDrew
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nailed
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Seabass
Old 06-04-2008, 08:35 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Keilah
Old 06-04-2008, 08:44 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Shove. He has made straight = unlikely cooler.
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