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lotta outs

  
 
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Beck
Old 11-09-2006, 07:55 PM     Post subject: lotta outs #1 (permalink)  
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Villian is 15.5/4.0
his PFR range I figure is AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT AK, AQ, AJ

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($40.60)
UTG ($38.05)
UTG+1 ($58.50)
MP1 ($48.25)
MP2 ($9.75)
CO ($48.45)
Button ($143.10)
Hero ($75.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, T.
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, CO calls $0.50, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB raises to $2.5, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero calls $2.

Flop: ($6.50) 7, 6, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $2.5, Hero calls $2.50.

Turn: ($11.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $7.5, Hero ?

I assume he has an overpair and now I got a shit load of outs. is the best move to raise? I figure any 7 any 9 any T and any heart is an out I think that adds up to 17 outs right?
-Beck
 
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bigslikk
Old 11-09-2006, 08:38 PM #2 (permalink)  
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If you put him on an overpair- you've got great odds to call- even if he has TT, you still have the right price.

If he has a set, you only have flush outs... minus the 7h that would boat im and the heart that would give him quads... you are shooting for 7 hearts at worst, 8 at best. Then you hafta fold. However he keeps betting into weakness, he has no set.

I say easy call.

Edit: oops 8 for the straight... hmm +3 outs to the set... u could get 11 outs... 23%... tuff decision, villain will prob shutdown on 8 or heart so not much implied odds...
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bearcats05
Old 11-09-2006, 08:50 PM #3 (permalink)  
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he said that he probably doesnt have any PP's that would have a set on this board in his range. its possible but probably not.

im guessing you are about 30% to win this hand on the turn assuming you are up against a big PP.
u have implied odds to win 26 more off him besides the call. i think if you want to stay around and make this profitable you have to make a big raise to pick up some folding equity and if he had aj-ak and he is doing this you get that out. otherwise fold.
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bbqsquirrel
Old 11-09-2006, 08:58 PM #4 (permalink)  
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For the sake of simplicity let's assume your stack size is the same as your opponent's.

If your read is correct calling is definitely an +EV play:
17*26.5/45=10.01 so you on average make $2.5 by calling, plus implied odds which I doubt you have much.

If you put villain AI (putting in 28.1+ 7.5 =$35.6) and always get called,
17*82.7(new pot size)/45=31.24, you lose $3.76 per hand over the long haul.

But of course your opp might fold. Let x be the % of times he folds. Let's say he folds half of the time. You'll end up with
0.5*(26.5+28.1) (when he folds) + 0.5*17/45*82.6 (when he calls and you hit) + 0.5*28/45*0 (he calls and you miss) = $42.64
which means you make $7.03 every time this situation happens.

And of course if he folds every time you make $19 every time.

I think it depends more on your table image than your opponent's style. If you haven't been out of line at the table so far, a 15.5/4 opponent will probably respect your check-raises.
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bearcats05
Old 11-09-2006, 09:29 PM #5 (permalink)  
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then the fact that he only has 40 makes it more of a raise or fold situation.
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martindcx1e
Old 11-09-2006, 10:49 PM #6 (permalink)  
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If you have 17 outs then you are 37% to win on the turn. So going by just pot odds you should only call 37% of the pot. It's $7.50 to win $19 on the turn. That's about 39%. If you have any implied odds at all (and you have to have at least a tiny bit) then this is a correct call.
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Beck
Old 11-09-2006, 11:42 PM #7 (permalink)  
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i know that it is a correct call, pot odds dictate it as well as the impied cash possibility, and so the question really is, do I call or raise here? i know if I hit my strait or a set or 2 pair I can take his stack. if I hit the flush maybe $10. if I go all in, he might fold here. which is more +ve?
-Beck
 
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martindcx1e
Old 11-09-2006, 11:46 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beck
i know that it is a correct call, pot odds dictate it as well as the impied cash possibility, and so the question really is, do I call or raise here? i know if I hit my strait or a set or 2 pair I can take his stack. if I hit the flush maybe $10. if I go all in, he might fold here. which is more +ve?
if you know you'll get paid off from your draws then i'd say just call b/c it sounds like he gets pretty attached to his big hands which means you don't have much FE.
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nutsinho
Old 11-10-2006, 04:17 AM #9 (permalink)  
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 B3B flop or c/r and push turn
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TerryToma
Old 11-10-2006, 05:24 AM #10 (permalink)  
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i dont see how any "7" is an out. i think you are at 13-14 outs here.

just call turn.

edit-nevermind you meant any "8" to make your gutshot. pretty much any move but folding is +ev. i still prefer calling..
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martindcx1e
Old 11-10-2006, 05:30 AM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TerryToma
i dont see how any "7" is an out. i think you are at 13-14 outs here.

just call turn.

edit-nevermind you meant any "8" to make your gutshot. pretty much any move but folding is +ev. i still prefer calling..
i prefer calling too if villain gets attached to his hands like OP says he does.
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Beck
Old 11-10-2006, 03:30 PM #12 (permalink)  
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RESULTS:

Thanx guys I am starting to think calling is a good move on this player. Which is what I did and a heart came out. SO I decided to get a few extra dollars outta him, but not scare him off. so I bet $10, he called, he had AA.
-Beck
 
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pantherhound
Old 11-11-2006, 08:57 PM #13 (permalink)  
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 Bet the flop. Depending on whether I think the original raiser will blow me out of the pot if he likes his overpair (not often at this level) I pot this flop for balance with the times I pot it with an overpair/set. Takes control, defines his hand, big implied odds against non thinkers and builds the pot if you hit.
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