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| Fnord |
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$300 buy-in, 5/3 blinds in Cali-forn-I-A UTG limps UTG+1 (over $1k) limps TAggy pre-flop, weak post-flop and for real money ($450) raises to $35 (AJ+, Suited Broadways, 88+) Donator (about $160, at least his third buy) calls from MP I have   with about $750 and re-raise to $120 from the HJCO & BN fold Blinds fold UTG folds UTG+1 tanks really really hard... "You got about $600 behind?" *curses* I ask "Do you have a pair" "Well, I've thought about it this long" TAggy shows his hand to the dealer and says "well he has me beat" A clock is called UTG+1 calls TAggy bullet folds Donator calls. UTG+1 might be on scared money, kinda TAggy over-playing luke-warmish hands pre-flop. about $400 in the pot, 3 to the flop Flop is :Qc:   UTG+1 looks at the flop, then decisivly shoves Donator calls for $40 It's over $620 to me. Put UTG+1 on a range. |
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| IowaSkinsFan |
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| AQ, QQ/88, AxKc, JJ/TT in order of likelyness i think. | |||
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Check out the new blog!!!
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| daven |
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QQ is unlikely. Range is 88/AA/ TTc/JJc/AxKc as played, wow... |
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| Fnord |
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Interesting ranges, so are you calling or folding? edit: Posts like this remind me just how hard it can be to read hands. |
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| Deanglow |
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| I am reading his physical tells as a sign of strength. He is showing is strong, but not AA, hand to the dealer (AQ+, JJ+) to justify his semi-loose (to his scared money/TAGfish opinion) call. 88 is possible, but I am putting him on AQ. I would call because its live and GAMBOOOOOL | |||
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| Fnord |
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Quote:
Quote:
Probably extra information, but I'm trying to capture all of the information leakage. |
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| Fnord |
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My gut response was CALL! But since the pot was so large I took a little extra time and then pretty quickly folded. My process of putting him on a hand... Pre-flop: I very strongly discounted AA because I didn't think he was acting (it would take a huge asshole to play AA like that) and he seemed concerned he tipped his hand. His response to my pair question was almost a jesture "ummmm duh!" so discount AK. KK would be retarded as well. So probably QQ or JJ, maybe KK, TT would be weak, but it's live. Perhaps we was doing the math wrong for 99-22 (8 to 1 instead of 10 to 1) I really don't think AQ would be a serious decison for him here. Flop: This really reeks of a retarded AQ, but it doesn't fit! He can't have the Ace of clubs because I have that. Now throw in the donator who pot-fucked himself and he almost can't be bluffing here and most of the semi-bluffs just went out of his range. QQ had to be it, even if his push robbed him of playing a HUGE pot here. Maybe KK with the Kc trying to get me off Aces or something. Or he got lucky. Perhaps A Kc or J Jc, but he just didn't look like he was getting fresh with the other guy in there. So I had his range at: QQ Lightly Discount: KK, 88, Ax Kc Heavily Discount: Jx Jc, Tx Tc Hence, I don't think my one pair outs are good between the strength of his range and the third guy in there. My SWAG was I was about 33% to win the pot. Wasn't getting the right price and even if I was in better shape it's really close. Near zero EV plays for $1.5k are pretty silly for the stakes I play at and I was pretty sure this was one of those funny -EV spots. Thoughts before I say what he had? |
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| bigspenda73 |
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pot odds yo? Also, do you have more cash on you? Is it worth it to get very deep (i.e. another donator sitting on a pile)? |
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| AlphaKennyBody |
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| I may be off, but I put him on either KcQx or 88. It says he originally limped in...would he really do that with QQ? | |||
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| Fnord |
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| Rondavu |
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| Your pair outs are getting smoked no matter what he has. I'm not a huge fan of 6-8 outers for deep stacks. He pushed a set of some kind in most cases, and it's nothing I haven't seen before. It happens mostly when time is of the essence, such as one tabling live, and you only have so long to play. He's basically playing a strong hand incorrectly in the name of protecting it somehow. | |||
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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| Pelion |
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If he has a pair he probably has an A or K to go with. If he has more than a pair our 1 pair outs are no good and he often has redraws. limp/call/tank-call doesnt really make sense to me as being QQ but not many hands make sense how he played it. I think his range is more like Probable: 88/33/AQ/QQ Less Likely: AKc/JcJ/TcT I think he probably shoves AA/KK at somepoint preflop. We cant count it as a 15 out draw because the times our one pair outs are good are canceled by the times he has redraws with sets or he holds on of our outs. We have 36% against his "probable" range which is almost exactly what we need. The more often he has "less likely" hands the more +EV it becomes so I think its a marginal call. Thats pretty interesting though because I thought it was a pretty easy fold at first. edit: Actually I think he has 88/33 far more often than QQ/AQ here since you have the Ac so its probably a marginal fold. |
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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| Fnord |
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He had QQ I'm trying to understand the pre-flop range people are putting him on given the player profile and information leakage. Quote:
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| Deanglow |
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In live play I am seeing more and more of this shoving huge with the nuts type thing. I really don't understand it. |
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| Fnord |
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Quote:
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| daven |
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| nice hand | |||
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you know i can't read your ghost sig bro, i've been internalising a really complicated situation in my head
allin, reload, repeat please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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