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Lukie
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05-13-2006, 06:06 PM
Post subject: lets revisit this just one more time...
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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NL400 full ring, my table selection really sucks by the way and ALL NINE players at this table are multitabling. Honest.
UTG has a small opening range. MP is a very solid 8-tabler who I know for certain uses Pokertracker and a HUD. I think his 3-betting range here is QQ+, weighted toward the top of that range. JJ is highly unlikely IMO, and I really don't even think he's doing it with a hand as good as AKs. Not against a tight UTG raiser. MP sat down recently, but the 3 of us have logged many hands together and we generally try to stay away from each other. My decision in this hand has nothing to do with that, however.
UTG ($450) opens for $16.
folds to MP.
MP ($400) raises to $55.
folds to Lukie's button.
Lukie ($750) looks down at 2 red kings and mucks.
obvious right?
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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You need to move to party pronto.
fold is ok. I think if UTG was passive enough that i thought he'd just call, I might call and set hunt, getting about 8:1 ( i know you don't believe in this, but bear with me).
8:1 implied odds against two strong hands, 3:1 pot odds, plus the chance your hand is good after the flop unimproved. UTG might have QQ and MP might have AK. There are a variety of plausible scenarios that make your KK good unimproved (they just don't occur a majority of the time).
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samsonite2100
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Your loosing, lolololololololololol
Posts: 858
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Whaaaaaa (in Chief Wiggum voice)?
Lukie, 400 is way above my head, and I know you're a much better player than I am, but I don't understand not raising on the button here.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
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Quote:
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8:1 implied odds against two strong hands,
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no, i don't have 8:1 in implied odds, and i'd need more.
stack sizes do not correlate into implied odds.
3rd raise is completely out of the question here. If i'm going to call, it's going to be because of the combination of set value combined with the fact that I'm ahead sometimes. Make no mistake though, I'm behind his range here.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by samsonite2100
Whaaaaaa (in Chief Wiggum voice)?
Lukie, 400 is way above my head, and I know you're a much better player than I am, but I don't understand not raising on the button here.
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Raising is the worst choice against tight players, because once 1/3 of everyone's stack is in the middle, position becomes almost irrelevant postflop.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
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Quote:
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I don't understand not raising on the button here.
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against the range i'm facing here, please explain your case. I don't really see it. so he insta-mucks anything I beat and pushes with aces?
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
Quote:
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8:1 implied odds against two strong hands,
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no, i don't have 8:1 in implied odds, and i'd need more.
stack sizes do not correlate into implied odds.
3rd raise is completely out of the question here. If i'm going to call, it's going to be because of the combination of set value combined with the fact that I'm ahead sometimes. Make no mistake though, I'm behind his range here. |
I mean potential implied odds. I think if UTG is going to close the action with a call (this is debatable), you can set hunt here, + your KK is good a small percentage of the time. I think this is marginal to -EV depending on your opps. A fold is probably better.
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samsonite2100
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Your loosing, lolololololololololol
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Ok, I see your point there. Why not call?
Also, how can you be that sure MP is only raising QQ-AA? Even if it's unlikely, isn't there a large enough % of the time he's raising AK, 1010 and JJ, like say 10%, to make calling +EV?
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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If you're in doubt about whether it's +EV or -EV, probably best to toss it, as a general rule, and wait for a better opportunity, right?
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
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You guys left something out of your discussion... He folded to a player he had position on when he was almost certain of his exact hand.
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DaNutsInYoEye
You guys left something out of your discussion... He folded to a player he had position on when he was almost certain of his exact hand.
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I see the point.
When MP, an 8-tabling nit makes a large reraise over another very tight UTG RAISER, and I have 2 kings, he usually has 2 aces. This guy doesn't reraise much at all...
Let's say his range is KK+ here, he's 6x more likely to have aces then kings. I think QQ is also in his range here, but I think he's less likely repop it here with QQ then the other 2. And the chance that he has TT/JJ/AK I think are pretty trivial. He calls with TT/JJ and calls/folds with AK, I think.
I find it extremely likely, regardless of my action, that he felts QQ unimproved if that whats he has. I don't have odds to set hunt. To make this worse, I think a K high flop or a Q high flop are about the only ones he won't felt AA with here, with emphasis on the K high flop.
Ugh, imo, folding > calling > raising here. I'll post results in a bit.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
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Lukie would clearly be gambling here. Muck and find a better table.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Lukie would clearly be gambling here.
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obviously 
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Muck and find a better table.
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Interestingly, m3lancholy (I think that's how you spell it) from FTR sat down and immediately left and made some comment about the table. But I actually went up 2 buyins at this table and down about 4 buyins at my other 7 tables combined during this 4500 hand session. Yes I'm being serious, and no I havn't really played much other poker this week.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
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For the results oriented:
UTG calls. Flop J65r. UTG check/calls with what I think is usually a set of jacks here. Turn bricks, UTG check/pushes, MP thinks about it for a while, calls, and gets stacked with his pair of aces.
errrm.. scratch that, river A, set of aces for MP beats UTG's set of jacks.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Fnord
Lukie would clearly be gambling here.
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obviously |
I don't think it's so obvious until you put one guy squarly on AA-QQ (KK is a coin flip against this range and post-flop would be hard to get value out of) then consider that the opener isn't too much looser.
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spino1i
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
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The reraiser's stats would have to be something like 14/4/3 for me to get away from kings here. He would have to be known multitabling camper incapable of reraising a real raise pre-flop with anything more than AA and KK. This looks like it might very well be the case here though. Good read.
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by spino1i
The reraiser's stats would have to be something like 14/4/3 for me to get away from kings here. He would have to be known multitabling camper incapable of reraising a real raise pre-flop with anything more than AA and KK. This looks like it might very well be the case here though. Good read.
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Villain in this hand was redargoe, a pretty well known middlish-stakes player on stars. I have him pegged at 15/8/1.25 (only .92 AF Preflop). This is mostly full ring, but once in a while these tables get shorthanded and those stats are included in there.
I had his range in this particular case at something like:
60% AA
10% KK
25% QQ
5% Other
Out of curiousity. Same situation. UTG and MP are both unknowns.
Hero..........
calls
4-bets, how much
?
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,334
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lukie
Out of curiousity. Same situation. UTG and MP are both unknowns.
Hero..........
calls
4-bets, how much
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Yup
If I re-raise I'd make it at least $125
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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the worst part is you are playing ring games on stars
the second worst part is your folding KK.
I think your analysis is good, i still dont think that tells you KK no good however.
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