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Let's bluff fishies!

  
 
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badgers
Old 06-30-2009, 09:12 PM     Post subject: Let's bluff fishies! #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is a 40/15 fish. I have no further reads other than stats and I presume this will possible be what makes this hand spew... On the flop I choose to bet since I have good value against villains calling range, I expect the SB (15/10 with high fold to cbet over decent sample) to fold a lot to my utg+1 raise and cbet into a fish. Turn and river thoughts?

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($224.75)
Hero (UTG+1) ($205.35)
MP1 ($203.25)
MP2 ($374.20)
MP3 ($215.75)
CO ($273.45)
BTN ($183.55)
SB ($256.25)
BB ($117.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 9 players) Hero is UTG+1
1 fold, Hero raises to $8, 4 folds, BTN calls $8, SB calls $7, 1 fold

Flop: ($26, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20, SB folds

Turn: ($66, 2 players)
Hero bets $40, BTN calls $40

River: ($146, 2 players)
Hero bets $137.35,
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ZwiFT
Old 07-01-2009, 12:59 AM #2 (permalink)  
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dont see kings in his range, since he got SB behind and calling with overcards would be totally shitty even if your a donk. AK might do it. Underpairs to the king is def in his range so is 22, 55 sometimes AA. Tho the chance of him calling AA preflop and not raising it on the flop or turn is slim-

22.55-QQ is his most common range, AK and AA is very slim. Have experience donks dont fold QQ here tho, and he might question your shove because there is a flushdraw that missed.


Your bluff needs to work 52% of the time, do you think it will? I am not sure
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ATOTHEC101
Old 07-01-2009, 02:10 AM #3 (permalink)  
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The actual hand would usually be fine but the fact you're bluffing a fish, meh I'm not so sure, dunno if he's gonna fold qq-. He could also have floated the flop with kx, which he def won't fold.
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bjsaust
Old 07-01-2009, 02:53 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Turn seems good, river doesnt.
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Old 07-01-2009, 04:33 AM #5 (permalink)  
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the real question to ask here is if he'll fold 85s
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mcatdog
Old 07-01-2009, 07:25 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bjsaust
Turn seems good, river doesnt.
No way, you can't bet the turn without betting the river, but I'm not sure I'd bet the turn. Some fish will fold this river a lot, others will snap call with 65s as someone else said, it's really just a wild guess without anything better than "villain is a 40/15 fish."
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