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KQs b vs b flops combo draw, turns the nuts 50nl

  
 
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daven
Old 03-09-2010, 03:22 AM     Post subject: KQs b vs b flops combo draw, turns the nuts 50nl #1 (permalink)  
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villain is 16-15-5 44% steal, 80% fold to 3-b, 70% cb, generally decent player and a winner in the games he plays (50nl-100nl mostly).

Are pre-flop and flop super-standard? seem so to me. Turn I hit bingo but he seems in shut-down mode - sizing here?

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saw flop

Hero (BB) ($69.75)
UTG ($34.60)
UTG+1 ($18.70)
MP1 ($53.40)
MP2 ($53.25)
CO ($49.10)
Button ($55.70)
SB ($50.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, Q
6 folds, SB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1

Flop: ($3) J, 2, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $2, Hero raises to $7, SB calls $5

Turn: ($17) 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $14,
 
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rpm
Old 03-09-2010, 07:16 AM #2 (permalink)  
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flop looks good. initially my reaction to the turn bet was that it was perhaps too large because unless he has the nut flush draw he's pretty much drawing dead. but then again there are a shitload of two-pair, pair/straight draws in his range which you want to get value from and you might perhaps induce some kind of spew from some flush and straight/flush draws if he suspects you're floating. you never really get any value from the rest anyway. nice hand.
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caddie444
Old 03-09-2010, 08:35 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Preflop and flop are standard for me. 3B'ing pre is meh b/c you might be blown off the hand and if he's raising a wide range from sb you can value him on many boards.

Flop is good b/c his range is still wide and I'd have no problem getting it in here.

I'd be very surprised if he folded to this turn bet, as I would wager he is continuing with like almost 100% of his flop b/c range on this turn, so I like it. This bet sizing sets up a pretty good shove size on the riv


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badgers
Old 03-09-2010, 10:45 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I think it's good but I might bet a little less on turn, we're not really worried about any river cards and I tihnk it looks less like a nut hand if you bet $12 instead of $14. Minor point though, nh.
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