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bspahn
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02-28-2006, 12:57 AM
Post subject: KQ tough
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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Don't have the *exact* history but in this case all the suits were not that important.
I'm in BB, w/ KQ
100NL table
6 handed table, UTG+1 raises to $3 preflop
SB calls, I call.
Flop comes: K Q 7 (I believe 2 cards were suited)
SB bets $4, I re-raise to $10, UTG+1 raiser goes all in for $56
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So there's the scenario. I call, and I'll tell you why. I didn't have an amazing read on the player, he was fairly new, but he wasn't raising a lot but was reasonably loose.
So why call, you ask. In this case with this flop I give myself a > 50% chance to take this down as I think he's trying to protect his hand from two possible draws or otherwise lesser hands. I think he has AK, or AA, I think either in this case is perhaps equally likely due to two Kings already being in use (on in my hand, one on the table).
Do you agree? Why would you call or fold this hand.[/list][/code]
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,334
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Gamble gamble gamble....
Board: Ks Qh 7h
Dead:
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 65.1118 % 55.34% 09.78% { KQo }
Hand 2: 34.8882 % 25.11% 09.78% { QQ+, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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would you care to explain the stats a bit more, what exactly is the equity % - similar to EV ? So that mostly confirms my thought process, what do you think?
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,334
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For every 50c you put in the pot you expect to win 65c. Toss in the donk factor and I think that number is really around 70c. Pretty darn good value!
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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ok just checkin, he had KK lol
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Vrax
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Poland
Posts: 632
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When I CALL raises, either I'm doing this to float on some nit (rarely) OR try to make a hand I'm ready to go all the way with it. KQ is questionable call against typical UTG raiser, position sucks, two broadway cards against raise suck even more. Board is excellent for KQ, only two raising hands (in case of Fnord's range - 4 hands  ) make better hands than top two pair here.
60BB stack makes it no-brainer call.
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"How could I call that bet? How could you MAKE that bet? It's poker not solitaire. " - that Gus Bronson guy
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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of course, KQ is a raising hand, but here it was cheap to call implied odds flopped perfect hand but ran into extremely unlikely hand with a very unlikely play!
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,334
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bspahn
it was cheap to call implied odds flopped perfect hand but ran into extremely unlikely hand with a very unlikely play!
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How do you figure?
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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Unlikely in the sense that since I have KQ and on board is KQ the chance of opp having exactly KK as opposed to one of the other hands which I likely dominate, is slim.
Unlikely play I mean that in general if I'm faced with having a monster of a hand such as top set with no possible straight or flush, I would rather raise or possibly slow play, not dump all my chips in.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,334
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I don't think it really matters how this is played post-flop, all the money ends up in the center just about always.
60bb stacks, UTG raises TT+/AQ+/AJs+/KQs to 3x. How do you figure you have implied pot odds to call 2 more bb?
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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Oh it was $2 to call and $7 or $8 was already in the pot, as opposed to having KQ in late pos calling the full 3bb pfr. Basically what I mean as implied here is I'm investing $2 for a small chance to bust AK, AA etc if I flop two pair, or possibly the nut str8. Otherwise I'm out.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,334
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bspahn
Oh it was $2 to call and $7 or $8 was already in the pot, as opposed to having KQ in late pos calling the full 3bb pfr. Basically what I mean as implied here is I'm investing $2 for a small chance to bust AK, AA etc if I flop two pair, or possibly the nut str8. Otherwise I'm out.
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I know exactly what you mean. Given 60bb deep stacks, how often are you nailing a flop this hard and when you do how often are you winning his stack vs losing yours.
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bspahn
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 851
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yep, just felt pretty silly getting owned like that, but I wanted to compare my justification with some other players, and it was the right move, just bad luck.
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