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KK UTG on one colour flop. Push?

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Borax

11-04-2007, 08:44 PM Post subject: KK UTG on one colour flop. Push?

#1 (permalink)

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Join Date: Feb 2005

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Posts: 584

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
9 players

Stack sizes:
Hero: $115.85
UTG+1: $57.60
MP1: $144.70
MP2: $96.50
MP3: $101.75
CO: $104
Button: $24
SB: $102.40
BB: $116

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG with K

Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $13.5, 5 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: J

($28.5, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $19, Hero

I really suspect AA here for a tight player, (I only had 50 hands on him with stats 12/3.5 in PT), but if so, a big raise or push from me must be very scary for the oponent on this flop right? Calling seems wrong, but I could reason that I now am behind AA, QQ and JJ and then fold?
Thoughts?

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Miffed22001

11-04-2007, 09:02 PM

#2 (permalink)

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I think preflop is really bad, making this flop utterly tough. I think we have to fold or stack off and not like it.

Chicago_Kid

11-04-2007, 10:21 PM

#3 (permalink)

Full House

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without a read that he pf re-raises light or bets hard into draws this is a fold.

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XTR1000

11-04-2007, 10:26 PM

#4 (permalink)

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I dont like your preflopcall at all with no reads. as played, I like to c/r flop

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Clar17y

11-04-2007, 10:28 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Posts: 142

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

I think preflop is really bad, making this flop utterly tough. I think we have to fold or stack off and not like it.

Hmm 12/3.5 over 50 hands doesn't mean all that much other than he's raising with premium hands... Which means i don't think he'd 3-bet an UTG raiser with AQ here, leaving AK,JJ+ maybe. 4-betting i find always makes them either fold or push which we invariably call and its AA or KK.

PokerStove shows:
Board: Js Qs 5s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.259% 47.61% 01.65% 9899 342.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 50.741% 49.10% 01.65% 10207 342.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Meaning if you tag him as 3-betting JJ+,AKs,AKo you're still 50/50. HOWEVER the only thing calling your shove is going to be JJ,QQ,AA which you're a huge dog against.
Therefore idk if i like shoving, is calling and seeing a turn a bad idea? I'm guessing another spade is good for us. Then we can check and see what villain does?

Clar

Renton

11-05-2007, 01:40 AM

#6 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Atlanta, GA, USA

Posts: 5,991

pf call is super duper standard wtf are you guys talking about

i guess shove the flop, you are probably priced in to take your 40ish % equity vs his range and get it in.

Borax

11-05-2007, 07:35 AM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Norway

Posts: 584

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clar17y

PokerStove shows:
Board: Js Qs 5s
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.259% 47.61% 01.65% 9899 342.00 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 50.741% 49.10% 01.65% 10207 342.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

Meaning if you tag him as 3-betting JJ+,AKs,AKo you're still 50/50. HOWEVER the only thing calling your shove is going to be JJ,QQ,AA which you're a huge dog against.
Therefore idk if i like shoving, is calling and seeing a turn a bad idea? I'm guessing another spade is good for us. Then we can check and see what villain does?
Clar

Against QQ and JJ I'll still have 11 outs (11x4 ~44%) since he wouldn't hold a spade then, right? So I wouldn't really be "huge dog" against it I think, but AA

would be a big problem.

Interesting that opinions differ here. Often I would push this preflop, but not always. Calling on the flop...any other opinions on that? Then I would have to fold to a big bet on a nospade turn, right?

Another thing. As MP2, would you call with AA (no spade), if UTG check push on this flop? (Hero stats PT ~ 18/6).

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hopeful

11-16-2007, 06:47 PM

#8 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Aug 2007

Posts: 293

i like the call, standard stop and go strategy. Post flop dont like it I usually fold these unable to decide. I have tried a check raise all in and been successfull. Not sure i wouald try it here its a big stack to blow off, his range must be JJ+ maybe AKs but i doubt it. His bet implies he has a big hand but wants to make a flush draw pay so probably hasnt got the A spades.
All in all i fold

DaNutsInYoEye

11-16-2007, 11:08 PM

#9 (permalink)

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Posts: 1,921

lol. wtf? are you people only calling 3-bets with AA?

CR AI.

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wufwugy

11-17-2007, 02:33 AM

#10 (permalink)

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Join Date: May 2006

Posts: 1,660

Villian's range is super tight here. Fold and get away cheap. Any plus EV here is super small, and probably non-existent. Preflop is standard considering you should almost never 4bet at .5/1

BankItDrew

11-17-2007, 05:19 AM

#11 (permalink)

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we slowplayed preflop and should now be shoving c/r.

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wufwugy

11-17-2007, 05:54 AM

#12 (permalink)

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I estimate we're, at most, 35% equity (probably closer to 30% since villian's range is mainly AA), we have miniscule FE, and villian is a standard super nit. Felting is not the best option. Calling may be better than folding since we do have equity, and standard super nits are always scared without the nuts. We'll see a cheap showdown here a decent amount of time. No need in felting when behind when villian will call off non-spade AA yet not push, and I think a fold is still better than a crai.

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KK UTG on one colour flop. Push?

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