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oskar
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02-23-2009, 11:47 PM
Post subject: KK for set value imo
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Villain is 22/2 with 2% 3-bet and 60% c-bet (!!) over 3k
This is fine right? It just feels so gross.
$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($94.70)
Hero (UTG 1) ($101.00)
MP1 ($46.96)
MP2 ($76.28)
MP3 ($56.94)
CO ($15.72)
BTN ($15.15)
SB ($43.50)
BB ($65.31)
Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is UTG 1  
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, MP3 raises to $6, 4 folds, Hero calls $4
Flop:    ($12.75, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets $15, Hero folds
Final Pot: $12.75
MP3 wins $27.44 ( won $6.44 )
Hero lost -$6
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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huh?
I dont like this fold. I'd consider calling down.
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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killerkebab
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 149
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So why are we calling the 3bet? Are we calling this 3bet with 44, for instance?
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DoanDiggy
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 536
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Not horrible:
Code:
Board: Qh 6h 6c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.841% 51.19% 02.65% 54732 2835.00 { JJ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 46.159% 43.51% 02.65% 46518 2835.00 { KK }
Interestingly, we are actually in better shape against this range with an A on the board instead of a Q or a J (because it's a blocker for AA, mostly):
Code:
Board: Ah 6h 6c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.532% 31.55% 02.98% 32796 3100.50 { JJ+, AKs }
Hand 1: 65.468% 62.48% 02.98% 64953 3100.50 { KK }
Also, even if we change the range a bit, we're still not in great shape, especially if he's not going to c-bet so huge with a bricked AK:
Code:
Board: Qh 6h 6c
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 56.035% 53.38% 02.65% 57078 2835.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 43.965% 41.31% 02.65% 44172 2835.00 { KK }
Then again, is he going to bet so huge with QQQ? This hand is pretty read-dependent IMO, but I don't hate the fold.
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yes, obv we call the small 3bet with any pair when he has such a tight 3bet range.
i don't understand why you think 60% is such an amazing stat; wait, nevermind, combine that with his tiny pfr and we get a picture. It looks really nitty and you are sometimes folding the best hand but i don't think you're ahead more than 33% of the time and you probably face turn/river bets. I fold too.
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Im_new
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 1,055
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I think you all are right. I didn't think about the pfr + cbet stat.... hmm... I still would hate to do it, but the fold isn't as bad as I imagined.
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"Gotta run well eventually."
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mxiu
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 982
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2% PFR... isn't that like QQ+ only?
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DoanDiggy
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 536
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It's TT+; JJ+, AKs; or QQ+, AKo, AKs.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by killerkebab
So why are we calling the 3bet? Are we calling this 3bet with 44, for instance?
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Yes. I gave him an even smaller range than Doan, and a quick look at raised or 3-bet pots that he played confirms it - he always flatted AK pre. Did not find any JJ hands. I think it's due to HEM rounding it up and it's probably closer to 1.5% - at least the 3-bet%.
This is clearly not a thinking player. All he knows is I raise a lot for his standards - 16/13 overall. 22/18 for this particular session (10Max FR). I don't think he's wasting even a second putting me on a range. He's probably afraid of the flush and wants to deny me implied odds.
If you got the flop range right Don, then this is actually an easy call. But the 60% c-bet tells me that he's pretty much never c-betting if he doesn't connect with the flop or if overcards come, so I think it's more like QQ+, AhKh after he overbets the flop and just maybe the occasional AKo, but I really doubt it.
So what if he checks behind? Leading 1/2 pot on the turn?
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badgers
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Spewing
Posts: 3,372
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by DoanDiggy
It's TT+; JJ+, AKs; or QQ+, AKo, AKs.
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Going to be tighter than this against an UTG raise. nh op (feels diiiiiiirty though  )
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3k post - Return of the blog!
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Deanglow
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Moderator
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: lol
Posts: 2,443
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The call preflop is fine. The check/fold on the flop is pretty terrible.
And no we are not calling all our pairs to set mine here.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Hmmm... I don't get that. Do you suggest leading?
Using more detailed stats:
His 3-bet to an EP raise is 1.4% which makes sense with 2% overall so QQ+,AKs - seeing that he has never 3-bet even AKs from all the hands I have in his db I would guess probably more likely QQ+. With 60% c-bet I don't see ho I could possibly have more than 30% equity on that flop.
Stats are over 3k hands so there's not too much room for statistical error.
About the set-mining. I'm not opening less than 55 from UTG+1 9-handed, but just theoretically I don't see how calling with TT is much different from calling with 44 in this case. No matter how you interpret his range, he has to be very strong and I'm potentially getting 16:1 when I hit the flop.
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ZwiFT
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Valuebet/fold
Posts: 778
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Checkfolding flop to a normal cbet is terrible here, checkfolding flop to this cbet is probably optimal.
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mixchange
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 1,665
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cbet stat is not a "cbet in 3bet pot stat" so I think we can discount that.
considering his tight 3b range I like flatting if he's not the type to felt AK.
his bet sizing being huge i can see a fold but i'd probably call one street to see what he does though it looks like we're pretty smoked now. I def wouldn't think of this hand as "KK for set value' as you could be up against a lot of worse hands pre, its more his cbet sizing that is the caution imo
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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If the flop comes J high I would c/c the flop and lead turn if he checks behind.
With this flop I would probably call a smaller c-bet but for no good reasons. I have filtered all his AK hands where he could 3-bet, but he never did... and that's in line with his stats.
So... If you guys say it's terrible to a normal sized c-bet then I'll have to assume you're right, but I don't get it. Obviously I posted it because I wasn't sure, but after 20 minutes with pokerstove and HEM I thought it was a straight forward fold.
Can we really assume that a guy with stats that ridiculous will 3-bet and then c-bet this flop with JJ or AK often enough to make this an easy call?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Deanglow
The call preflop is fine. The check/fold on the flop is pretty terrible.
And no we are not calling all our pairs to set mine here.
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k, what? why would you ever fold any pair against this guy? And 3.3k hands is enough to warrant the c/f, ez
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shyguy03533
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 59
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agreed
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Parasurama
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: DMT
Posts: 820
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Are you folding if the flop is T66? If not the title of this thread is nonsense. If so, wow you're giving him a lot of credit.
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i think he was trying to be clever with the title, yo
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TwoSmeets
i think he was trying to be clever with the title, yo
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[x] ldo
Didn't think it would be necessary to point out to ANYONE that the Q is the deal breaker in this hand.
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floptquadswunc
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: nowhere and everywhere
Posts: 44
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Have you guys ever thought that maybe this guy, who is so weak tight, is actually playing against you? What I mean is he's seen you raise with dogshit and now he three bets because he has 10-10 and it has to be better than your A-9, or whatever. Maybe it's not him on the computer, maybe he let his friend play for a while cause he had to go pick up a hooker so the two of them could DP her. Maybe he's drunk, came home, found his wife screwing the neighbor, stabbed them both, and decided to piss off the last grand he had on Pokerstars before he went away for life.
Maybe he has AKh, and is semi-bluffing while c-betting.
I guess you're right, it's more likely he has AA or QQ, so just fold already. If you have all of this info then why the fuck do you need to ASK? I mean, if you are going to use the info, then use it. Always use it and don't doubt yourself. I know in a live game I would lick the guys ass next to me before I'd lay down KK here.
Do I sound bitter? yup. I'm not playing on-line any longer. I am going to Vegas next month though. So piss off......
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