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KK overpair fold against a nit

  
 
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mcatdog
Old 04-21-2006, 05:01 PM     Post subject: KK overpair fold against a nit #1 (permalink)  
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Villain is 16/4/1 over 100 hands and his WtSD% is 13%. Likey or no likey?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($125)
CO ($89.85)
Button ($98.20)
SB ($190.25)
BB ($128.50)
UTG ($102.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, K.
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $5, 4 folds, UTG calls $4.

Flop: ($11.50) 3, 5, 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $7, UTG calls $7.

Turn: ($25.50) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: ($25.50) Q (2 players)
UTG bets $24, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $49.50

PS: No comments about my seat selection please, because BB is one of the worst players I've ever seen.
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UG
Old 04-21-2006, 05:06 PM #2 (permalink)  
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As played, call here all day. He's betting basically pot on the river, wouldn't something really strong want to bet a little lower to get paid off?

You gotta bet this turn.


 
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yorib
Old 04-21-2006, 05:37 PM #3 (permalink)  
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I think he has QJ-QA (not QQ). I think you should have continued to bet on the turn as you have to have the best hand. Then again, if your experience with him suggests QQ, folding was the right call.
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DaHorror
Old 04-21-2006, 08:11 PM #4 (permalink)  
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I would tend to bet the turn $15-20 and fold to a reraise there, and would likely check-behind on the river or fold to a pot-bet if he comes out firing.

The problem with checking the turn is that it makes your line look like a missed AK. That pretty much forces you to call the river I think, and you're only putting out $5-10 more to call on the river than you would have if you had bet the turn.

I wouldn't think he's limping QQ UTG at 6-max...so you're looking at a lower pair floating your flop bet, set turned boat, or AQ enough here to call on the end.

That all said, I don't completely hate the fold given your opponents stats and the size of his river bet. Then again, I would expect 77/33 to give out more of a value bet on the river, unless he's hoping you have AQ and the Q hit you enough to call his bet.
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aleksandr
Old 04-21-2006, 08:12 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Yeah, I think he's reraising QQ pf, unless he's one of those doods that calls everything. I think I call the river, as my turn check represented weakness. I think I bet the turn so I don't have to call the river, also.
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mcatdog
Old 04-21-2006, 08:31 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaHorror
The problem with checking the turn is that it makes your line look like a missed AK. That pretty much forces you to call the river I think, and you're only putting out $5-10 more to call on the river than you would have if you had bet the turn.
I checked the turn because I wanted it to look like a missed AK. When he called my continuation bet, I put him on a pocket pair, that either made a set, or didn't. I think that if I'd come out firing again on the turn, a nit like him would have folded all of his missed pocket pairs, but if I check the turn and bet the river, it looks more like a bluff and I can extract more value from those pairs. If he does have a full house, clearly I want to keep the pot small, and take the free card to my 2-outer. It seems to me that betting the turn is bad no matter what he has. The only advantage to betting is if he has a pocket pair, I'm giving him a free card to hit a 2-outer. That's not a good enough reason to bet.

I was planning on calling a small bet on the river, and making a value bet if he checked to me. When he bet the pot, I couldn't see how he could have anything other than a full house.
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Rondavu
Old 04-21-2006, 08:39 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Nice fold against nit. Nitty villain isn't making loose calls on the flop with QT QJ QK QA. When he calls it could be a passive 88-JJ, QQ-AA, or a hard flop slowplaying. Hard flop or QQ-AA becomes likely on the river, because Villain isn't betting into an overcard that beats him if he has 88-JJ. Villain isn't the bluffing type according to hero. The conclusion becomes obvious, and hero makes a +EV read based laydown. NH
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KoRnholio
Old 04-21-2006, 10:28 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 It looks like this nit sensed weakness on your turn check and is trying to take the pot away from your presumed AK with his pair 66-JJ. As played I would call.
Some days it feels like I've been standing forever, waiting for the bank teller to return so I can cash in all these Sklansky Bucks.
 
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metaxy6
Old 04-21-2006, 11:42 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KoRnholio
It looks like this nit sensed weakness on your turn check and is trying to take the pot away from your presumed AK with his pair 66-JJ. As played I would call.
Doesn't seem that a nit of these proportions is making that kind of play.
I think if you could have it back, you'd put something in on the turn and fold to a c/r, likely checking behind on river.
As played, I like the fold. Can't stand paying this guy then watching him fold fold leave.
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