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gingerwizard

06-26-2007, 07:23 PM Post subject: Just checking this is a no-brainer

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50NL everest. Villain is weak tight preflop and a bit of a station.

UTG: $20
CO+1 villain: $67
BB Hero: $75

Dealt to hero

pf action. UTG limps, villain limps, others fold, i check.
Pot is $1.75
flop:

Hero bets $1, UTG folds, villain calls
Pot is $3.75
Turn:

Hero bets $4, villain calls.
Pot is $12.75
River:

:Tc:
Hero bets $12.75, villain raises to $61.25

Hero?

If you could answer with a river range for villain that would be even better

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bigspenda73

06-26-2007, 07:27 PM

#2 (permalink)

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ista calls and snaps off JT

if he has 99/TT oh well

griffey24

06-26-2007, 07:41 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

ista calls and snaps off JT

if he has 99/TT oh well

Yah, 78/KQ might have somehow gotten there... but not very likely.

I think two pair is much more likely than a straight, and a better set is pretty unlikely with how villain played it.

Call... but I wouldn't be overly happy about it.

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EzDuzIt

06-26-2007, 07:44 PM

#4 (permalink)

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yeah i would call that too, you are ahead of J10, 22, aj.maybe some badly played overpair? you are beat by 99, 1010 but if he stayed in with those i guess you are paying them off. and i dont think you really have to fear a straight here.

djzcko

06-26-2007, 08:06 PM

#5 (permalink)

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The only reasonable hands I could put him on that beats you is TT or 99 and those are raised pf more often than not, esp in 6 max (I am assuming this is 6 max?). I guess it's also very possible he limped JJ, hit top set on the flop and just slow played it to the end. I really don't think he has a str8 here. Without any solid reads on villain, however, I would have called this bet...

EzDuzIt

06-26-2007, 08:12 PM

#6 (permalink)

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im assuming it isnt 6max because he didnt say so and its not i the shorthanded forum.

bigspenda73

06-26-2007, 08:15 PM

#7 (permalink)

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6max doesn't have a CO+1 position

mixchange

06-26-2007, 10:27 PM

#8 (permalink)

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instacall, this is most likely two pair. I don't see how the straights that beat you are calling flop or turn. If they did, oh well. Gotta go with the story being told.

how can we not be happy here with the river raise? I'd say we have this hand at least 90% of the time.

mixchange

06-26-2007, 10:36 PM

#9 (permalink)

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can we get some reasoning fnord?

what hand do you have him on?

Fnord

06-26-2007, 10:37 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mixchange

can we get some reasoning fnord?

what hand do you have him on?

Misread the board. With no flush out I would call and not like it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

mixchange

06-26-2007, 10:41 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Why don't you like it? Sure it could be set over set or a donktastic kq, but with the limping I easily see him as J9 or j10

what hand do you have him on?

Fnord

06-26-2007, 10:46 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by mixchange

what hand do you have him on?

Flop call is just about any 2 cards
On the turn probably at least top or middle pair or a draw to a straight or flush.

We potted after a couple bets into a nothing pot, then he shoved. I think you see the nuts a lot here. If there is a flush on board it will often freeze up the fish and I've seen sets/2pr call there pretty much always. Without the flush it's harder to rule out 2 pair. Actually, AA wouldn't surprise me either.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
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Big-EZ

06-26-2007, 11:59 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Call. It's not 87 or KQ. You said hes a station it's probably AJ or J10. If he went set over set good for him. But I'm going to guess and say its J-10.

mixchange

06-27-2007, 12:28 AM

#14 (permalink)

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I feel like the clues given in the hand make this an instacall

but perhaps the clues given by him posting makes it sound like he got a rough beat and wants reassurance its a call, so its sexy to claim this is a fold.

gingerwizard

06-27-2007, 08:40 AM

#15 (permalink)

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Actually I posted this hand because of Villains unusual and pretty scary line, and because I think that 2nd bottom set is a very naked hand here, and perhaps there is a fold to be found.

I won't tell you what I did yet, but how about we actually go through the mathematics of this one and see how good our set actually is on the river? It would be a good exercise in hand reading for us all.

Range so far {99, TT, JT, AJ, KQ, 87, J9, 22, T9}

Anyone like to suggest more hands or weight some of these holdings by their likelihood?

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jimmy44

06-27-2007, 09:03 AM

#16 (permalink)

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I think you have to count also on slow played AA/KK and JJ.

mixchange

06-27-2007, 08:52 PM

#17 (permalink)

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I'll go in order:
j10
j9
99
1010
KQs
AJ
78s
109
22

I just cant see a flopped set because you'd think he would be raising the turn to your full pot bet.

I realllly don't see how the set is 'naked' and a fold should be found. It sounds like you lost the pot and are trying to come up with odd reasons to fold. I'm always OK with losing with a set to: set over set, runner/runner straight (as long as its not a 4 carder sitting out by river). I can't find any good reason to be folding, this is a philosophical thing. There will be plenty of other times where villain nails 2p but there is a potential straight on the board, but we can't fold just because we might have been beaten by a runner runner straight.

gingerwizard

06-27-2007, 10:28 PM

#18 (permalink)

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Stop trying to guess what happened in the actual hand. For all you know I folded. If we find a range for him and believe it and the maths says it's a fold then it's a fold. Nothing to do with the result of the way *I* played it.

Villain has called 2 pot sized bets in an unraised pot, he is generally weak passive and he shoves over the river for 120BBs. We have the 6th nuts. That's what I mean by naked.

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EzDuzIt

06-27-2007, 11:08 PM

#19 (permalink)

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you are ahead of his range, especially when you consider pot odds in there too. call. why is this being dragged out?

jimmy44

06-28-2007, 08:08 AM

#20 (permalink)

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Am I wrong here, but JJ cannot be excluded here. If he's passive he may have waited by the river with a set of J.
A bad player could also have AA/KK here ...

I think with the 6th nuts and pot odds you'll have to call here.

gingerwizard

06-28-2007, 09:52 AM

#21 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

you are ahead of his range, especially when you consider pot odds in there too. call. why is this being dragged out?

erm how am I ahead of his range? pot odds won't change where I am vs his range. I'm dragging this out to see exactly where we are vs his range. I'm betting we're not as good as you think.

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salsa4ever

06-28-2007, 01:24 PM

#22 (permalink)

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i would call and i don't think it's close. most of the time he doesn't have it. i dispense with the formalities of making a range and analysing our equity in a situation this clear cut

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bigspenda73

06-28-2007, 02:21 PM

#23 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

Quote:

Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

you are ahead of his range, especially when you consider pot odds in there too. call. why is this being dragged out?

erm how am I ahead of his range? pot odds won't change where I am vs his range. I'm dragging this out to see exactly where we are vs his range. I'm betting we're not as good as you think.

Ok smart guy, then get his range, open your pokerstove up, and see if the pot is laying you the right odds. There isn't much discussion here, just do that.

Do I have to lay his range out for you, here it is:

Flop range: Any 2 obv
Turn range: 22/JJ/99/TT/QQ+/As3s/AsJs/JT/J9/QJ/KJ/AJo
River range: 22/99/TT/JJ/JT/J9/QQ+/Air

Plug that into pokerstove and see where you're at

gingerwizard

06-28-2007, 10:41 PM

#24 (permalink)

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Pot is $86.75
$48.50 to call
1.78 to 1 pot odds
need to be better than about 36% to win

Board: 3c Jh 2s 9s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.070% 28.07% 00.00% 48 0.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 71.930% 71.93% 00.00% 123 0.00 { JJ-99, 22, KQs, J9s+, T9s, 87s, KQo, J9o, 87o }

Which makes for a fold given my range. Sorry spenda but I don't know any passive players that shove the river with air or QQ, KK here. I also think they flat call most 2pairs unless my read is terrible.

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EzDuzIt

06-28-2007, 10:52 PM

#25 (permalink)

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you included 87o, 87s, KQ but not QQ, KK, AA?
i think the range you made sucks.
and that range doesnt really include how much of the time they have a certain one of those cards right? like it makes it so they are all equal?
you are good enough here more than 36% of the time here.

gingerwizard

06-28-2007, 10:57 PM

#26 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by EzDuzIt

I think QQ+ raises the turn or flat calls the river.
The range only counts how many ways to be dealt each hand. My weights would be heavier on the sets and str8 hands though because passive players rarely EVER get it all in without a big/made hand. Especially in an unraised pot like this one. In fact I find it so unlikely he has QQ+ I would weight it small enough so that considering it's weight as zero would have little effect on the result.

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bigspenda73

06-28-2007, 11:02 PM

#27 (permalink)

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how can 78 be in their range?

gingerwizard

06-28-2007, 11:09 PM

#28 (permalink)

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why is it not?

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bigspenda73

06-28-2007, 11:14 PM

#29 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gingerwizard

why is it not?

cuz if it is then you might as well hit the random button in pokerstove cuz there is no reason he should ever have 78 here.

I don't even care that he had it (obv now I guess) it shouldn't be included.

gingerwizard

06-28-2007, 11:30 PM

#30 (permalink)

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Pretty much satisfies the criteria though.

Flop ATC
Turn some kind of draw or made hand (8s7s has a gutshot and a flush draw)
River some kind of made hand

87 is more likely than QQ or KK here (given the read).

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bigspenda73

06-29-2007, 12:16 AM

#31 (permalink)

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No, he can have ATC ON THE FLOP
He cannot have ATC after the flop bet and call
His range on the turn does not include 87

You are seriously too smart to argue that fact regardless of the fact that he may have had it.

bigslikk

06-29-2007, 02:24 AM

#32 (permalink)

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I'd bet he floated with 99 / chased with KQ (overs!). He has 22 if there's a God, otherwise fold. JT? I don't think scared players felt 2 pair when there's a possible straight out.

bigspenda73

06-29-2007, 02:48 AM

#33 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigslikk

I'd bet he floated with 99 / chased with KQ (overs!). He has 22 if there's a God, otherwise fold. JT? I don't think scared players felt 2 pair when there's a possible straight out.

Come on, ofcourse he felts 2pr cuz we should never have a straight here ever.

Pelion

06-29-2007, 03:11 AM

#34 (permalink)

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I think he has a much tighter range than you guys seem to and I also think this is KQ ALOT.

We are 36% if we are just as likely to be against KQ as JT. If he can also have 99 and 22 then we go up to 38%.
The other straights are very unlikely as is TT and I really dont think he has anything worse than JT ever (apart from strangely slowplayed AA/KK fairly rarely).

He probably has AA/KK sometimes then our equity goes up. He also probably pushes KQ more than JT here so our equity goes down again. Im going to cancel the AA/KK equity with the JT Vs KQ equity and call it a puke call.

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gingerwizard

06-29-2007, 10:02 AM

#35 (permalink)

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Finally, someone actually thinking about the player. I certainly agree with the fact he has nothing worse than JT ever. In fact i'd go further and just count JTs to reflect the fact that I don't think he felts 2pair.

I think he has KQ far more than he has two pair. I think the 87, and the TT are unlikely but possible and certainly more likely than AA/KK in my view.

Passive nut campers want to see the whole board. They'll often call down with any sort of hand, but when they put in a massive raise on the river, you know they made something, and I just don't think it's 2 pair almost ever. They are not aggressive enough to push 2 pair and certainly this player isn't.

This may be a puke call but I'm trying to illustrate to everyone saying it's not even close, that it is. In fact the more weight you put onto the hands that crush us, the worse our call gets.

Spenda: Saying he felts 2pair cos we don't have a straight here makes no sense. He is not thinking about what we have, he's looking at his cards and paying to see the board. He has decided by the river that he likes his hand so much he's going to push over a PSB. A passive player calls down with 2 pair here 90% IMO.

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Pants_101

06-29-2007, 12:27 PM

#36 (permalink)

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I think this is interesting. I like maths. And understanding people's tendencies must = $$ My eyes would bug out of my head though if he flipped 78

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bigspenda73

06-29-2007, 07:52 PM

#37 (permalink)

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for god's sake tell me you called
-only cuz I wanna know that he had 87 so I can laugh cuz Im having a tough day

BankItDrew

06-29-2007, 08:41 PM

#38 (permalink)

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I think it's obvious villain has the nuts. You repped every street with big bets but villain didn't give two shits on river.

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bigspenda73

06-29-2007, 08:53 PM

#39 (permalink)

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Ok, I'll allow arguments for KsQs but not 8s7s.

Pelion

06-30-2007, 02:10 AM

#40 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by bigspenda73

Ok, I'll allow arguments for KsQs but not 8s7s.

78 is very very unlikely.

KQ is the most likely hand imo

gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

bigspenda73: But how much did you win?

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