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JJ oop vs. lag? - 400NL

  
 
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zook
Old 03-15-2007, 05:55 AM     Post subject: JJ oop vs. lag? - 400NL #1 (permalink)  
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I haven't played much with villain, but I have stats from ~800 hands, mostly mined. He's running 25/14/2.5 and his WTSD% is 29, which together make me think he's laggy (for this game) pre- and post-flop.

What do you think of the 4-bet pre-flop? I only left myself pot behind, c-bet or give up?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Holdem Ring game - Blinds: $2/$4 - 9 players - Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $522.10
UTG+1: $400
Hero: $403.50
MP2: $421
MP3: $386
CO: $544.50
Button: $719.60
SB: $388
BB: $363.95

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP1 with J J
2 folds, Hero raises to $14, 2 folds, CO raises to $48, 3 folds, Hero raises to $134, CO calls.

Flop: A 5 2 ($274, 2 players)
Hero...
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DennisGPunkt2
Old 03-15-2007, 04:07 PM #2 (permalink)  

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First off, I wouldn't rereraise with JJ, especially when you are OOP against him AND he is a LAGG. Even IF he is a bad player, I don't think he wouldnt just throw his chips out for nothing, and actually the only thing you have covered at the flop, is MAYBE TT/KQ/KJ etc. I'd try to c-bet here and hope that he has Kings or Queens AND folds, which lot LAGGYS won't do at this point. Not C-betting here would be stupid, cause the pot is just too big now to let it get easily, and there is a good chance, after all the preflop aggression, that he puts you on AA/AK and therefor has to fold.

Btw. If you raise and get reraised while you are OOP, just call(or fold) and hope the board does not show anything higher than a Jack.
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Vi-Zer0Skill
Old 03-16-2007, 12:11 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 I was initially going to say that you should make a smaller raise preflop. My logic for that was that you would have easily denied villain any implied odds to call with a >$50 raise.

I thought about it some more and like your raise because you are really repping K-K/A-A now, sometimes A-K.

Villain called. If he isn't a thinking player (or believes you are bluffing) he could have Q-Q+, A-K+. That seems like a reasonable range for him to call you 4-bet, plus a series of weaker hands he may have called with to see how you would play the flop. So, against his range we are in trouble, and it is highly likely only a bluff will get us to win this pot.

Flop comes with an A and 2 blanks. There is a lot of money in the pot (~$270). If he is bluffing he may bluff raise over a probe sized bet if you chose to do that, since he would know you will fold any hand that doesn't have an A in it, also probably a 50/50 considering your range of hands. He may even call with K-K until he is pot-committed, hoping to catch you bluffing. He will never fold A-K or A-A, so this bet will do nothing but potentially build a pot in which we are almost certainly WB, or going to get muscled out of.

I think you have to make a regular bet and hope to not get called or raised. A check wouldn't get you any information and you would lose control of the betting Even though there is only 1 meaningful bet left in the hand, you have to be the one making that bet. A 1/2 pot bet makes a bluff raise by villain less likely(since he would know you would be getting over 5 to 1 on your call if he bluff raised). He would also have to fold K-K, Q-Q to this bet, unless he was resolved to his assumption that you were bluffing (also unlikely since you 4 bet preflop and now led out with a bet on an A high flop).

A shove is worse than a reasonably sized bet, since you don't get an opportunity to fold/raise if villain is indeed holding an A, and both bets accomplish the same goal (finding out if villain has an A).

With so much money in the pot and villains 50/50 range of hands he would fold/ shove with, i think it all makes a bet automatic.
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Renton
Old 03-16-2007, 12:51 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 fold preflop
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zook
Old 03-16-2007, 05:27 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
fold preflop
against this guy? ur a nit.
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Renton
Old 03-16-2007, 05:30 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
fold preflop
against this guy? ur a nit.
his reraising range has u crushed prob
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zook
Old 03-16-2007, 05:41 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
Quote:
Originally Posted by zook
Quote:
Originally Posted by Renton
fold preflop
against this guy? ur a nit.
his reraising range has u crushed prob
No way. I think it's even wider than this:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

523,965,024 games 0.005 secs 104,793,004,800 games/sec

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.255% 56.11% 01.14% 294018108 5977434.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 42.745% 41.60% 01.14% 217992048 5977434.00 { JJ }
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Halv
Old 03-16-2007, 08:47 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 Just c/f flop. Make sure to check AK/AA here every now and then. If he checks behind and the turn blanks we could try to get fancy against KK/QQ with a bet of somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/2 pot.

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