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daven
Old 04-05-2008, 03:22 AM     Post subject: jj lost #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain 20-7 over around 50 hands. I bet flop weak to induce some action, nothing came. Thoughts on turn? bet half pot again? or a real bet?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($83.70)
CO ($77.45)
Button ($36.25)
SB ($50)
BB ($51.95)
UTG ($51.60)
UTG+1 ($89.85)
Hero ($52.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, J.
UTG raises to $1.5, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.5, 5 folds, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($7.75) 4, T, 3 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.5, UTG calls $3.50.

Turn: ($14.75) 8 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets ?,
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Miffed22001
Old 04-05-2008, 04:05 AM #2 (permalink)  
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 cant decide between check then call river or if bet/fold is better.
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reprisal
Old 04-05-2008, 05:39 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Seems like you really ought to bet now, theres an awful lot of bad cards to come...the small 3-bet and and small flop bet probably aren't folding very much of his range at all.
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Ltrain
Old 04-05-2008, 05:58 AM #4 (permalink)  
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I like a line against a somewhat passive villian here; 3/4 bet/fold on the turn to get our value now, check through the river UI. He may be calling the flop with A,K or a flush draw which we want to charge, and another call from a strong turn bet gives me enough doubt to check through the river UI. If he checkraises us on the turn, we can feel comfortable folding.
"Don't judge a man until you have walked a mile in his shoes. Then you are a mile away, and have his shoes." - Anon.
 
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badgers
Old 04-05-2008, 10:29 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Would you ever bet half pot when you've missed the flop? As played I like a real bet. Villain could have ak that couldn't fold to your small bet, you don't want to go giving free cards now. Either way if you bet you're not losing any more money to sets because I presume you're betting/ calling a bet on the river.
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Deanglow
Old 04-05-2008, 03:04 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Check it down as played; he is never calling you down at this point with worse. If he bets the river just fold. This is how you have to play JJ postflop when your reraise an UTG raiser.
 
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pokerfan
Old 04-05-2008, 05:09 PM #7 (permalink)  
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i dont like to 3 bet UTG raiser with JJ in this early position. As played, I'd bet 3/4 pot on the flop and go pot control in later streets.
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daven
Old 04-05-2008, 07:02 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 I'm guessing my turn play won't be that popular, I'm doing my best to rep AK and get some action. But then I chickened out on the river...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

MP2 ($83.70)
CO ($77.45)
Button ($36.25)
SB ($50)
BB ($51.95)
UTG ($51.60)
UTG+1 ($89.85)
Hero ($52.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with , .
UTG raises to $1.5, 1 fold, Hero raises to $3.5, 5 folds, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($7.75) , , (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $3.5, UTG calls $3.50.

Turn: ($14.75) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5, UTG raises to $12, Hero calls $7.

River: ($38.75) (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero was meant to hang tough here, but got scared instead...

Final Pot: $38.75
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Erpel
Old 04-07-2008, 01:16 PM     Post subject: Q #9 (permalink)  
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(Beginner POV)
Your 3-bet is only just above a min-raise ($1.5 to $3.5) and I think it doesn't limit his range. Your flop bet is below 1/2 pot and again seems weak. Your turn bet is about 1/3 pot.

I'm not sure how he would read your range. Will he think you are betting weakly because you don't have much of a hand and are hoping to get him to fold or get a little value without too much risk, or are you betting weakly to get value out of a monster? A monster with this flop? I guess TT is in your range if JJ is and that's probably the best hand he can consider for you. I think he'll honestly rule AA, KK, QQ, AK out of your range thinking you would have placed a higher 3-bet PF with those. This leaves your range with AQ, AJs, KQs JJ, TT or so. Those sort of chime with a weak 3-bet to me.

As for his range, assuming his stats are fair and he's somewhat positionally aware I put his initial PF bet on TT-AA, AK, AQ, AJs, KQs or so. ATs is really borderline, but maybe we shouldn't rule it out entirely. When you throw a near-min-raise at him I think AA and KK would have 4-bet and most of the others would be happy to call and see a flop. I don't include more because with the large difference in VP$IP and PFR I would think that he only wants to get his money in on premium hands.

Ok, he check/calls flop. The board doesn't really suggest any straight draws for him, but flush draw is possible. QQ, JJ and ATs (if we consider that hand) would possibly have donked or check/raised, and I think the flop call makes sense for AK, AQ, AJ and KQ - more if they are both spades than if not. That said, he'd probably have called even the unsuited ones, though I'm not sure that would be a +EV decision for him. He has to be wondering what you're holding though. I don't know for sure if you would be expected to bet AQ for instance, but I think both JJ and TT are firmly in your range. I guess you could have c-bet with any two overcards

On the turn you bet very weakly, and his raise seems like a semi-bluff to me. I consider AsQs his most likely holding at this time and he thinks that he has a draw to beat you. That said, you might have succeeded in seeming weak and induced a bluff with no draw. He might be thinking that you hold a hand in a similar range to his and that he has maybe a 50/50 chance of being ahead already with the flush draw giving him lots more equity.

I think he sees you as 60% likely to hold JJ or TT and 40% likely to hold two unpaired overcards.
I think he's 40% likely to hold AsXs, 20% likely to hold AxTx, JJ, QQ, 20% likely to hold AX (no spades), 20% likely to hold TT.
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daven
Old 04-08-2008, 10:32 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 I put villain on a low pair, AK or AQ. I was a little scared of 55. The attempt to rep AK felt like it worked when I got the min cr then river check. But, like i said, i got scared.

Villain had 22.
don't raise with the straight flush bro, nobody ever gonna call that shit
allin, reload, repeat

please read: http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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