Originally Posted by Bode-ist

nh. this is pretty standard with an overpair + strong draw + FE

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

i dont think we have alot of FE given opp has put in about half his stack on flop RR. still shove but expect to be behind on flop

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

ya we have like 0 FE. it's not 1/2 of his stack (villain has $135), but he isn't folding.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

misread

martin you shoving too?

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

we have ten outs unless he flopped the absolute nuts, and im not convinced the flopped nuts would play like this hence considering opps range i think we push assuming we have those ten live outs

Originally Posted by zook

I'm with martin. I used to make this kind of play all the time and have come to the conclusion that it's terrible. We're risking $43 to win $50.25 (not counting rake) so we're getting pot odds of 1.16:1. I think fold equity is virutally zero, but if someone disagrees I'll do an EV calculation. I don't think it will make a difference. Let's see how we do against villain's range:

Board: 8h 9s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.244% 32.66% 00.58% 8730 156.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 66.756% 66.17% 00.58% 17688 156.00 { QQ+, TT-88 }

Pretty poorly, even discounting the possibility of QJ. Only if you throw in a pure bluff, like AK, does this become a good play. Fold.

Originally Posted by Da GOAT

still shove but expect to be behind on flop

Originally Posted by zook

I'm with martin. I used to make this kind of play all the time and have come to the conclusion that it's terrible. We're risking $43 to win $50.25 (not counting rake) so we're getting pot odds of 1.16:1. I think fold equity is virutally zero, but if someone disagrees I'll do an EV calculation. I don't think it will make a difference. Let's see how we do against villain's range:

Board: 8h 9s Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.244% 32.66% 00.58% 8730 156.00 { JdJs }
Hand 1: 66.756% 66.17% 00.58% 17688 156.00 { QQ+, TT-88 }

Pretty poorly, even discounting the possibility of QJ. Only if you throw in a pure bluff, like AK, does this become a good play. Fold.

Originally Posted by jdubs

I don't know if I agree with this range. It's like you're assuming his entire range is a monster hand. I think we have to include a few more hands that could make this move: 77, AJ, even the AK bluff, and QJ of course. Also AT(TPTK), 89, 9-10 (2p)..I still cant see folding here - I think this range is reasonable (below) and the numbers look decent enough for me to push over with :

Board: 8h Td 9s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.044% 51.67% 02.37% 291597 13375.50 { JJ }
Hand 1: 45.956% 43.59% 02.37% 245952 13375.50 { QQ+, TT-77, AKs, AJs-ATs, QJs, T9s, 98s, AKo, AJo-ATo, QJo, T9o, 98o }


ps. my 666th post .... yikes



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Originally Posted by martindcx1e

If you think you're behind then why shove?

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

sorry but i think that range is extremely too wide

Originally Posted by Renton

He makes it 15, then shoving is 100% the only play here.

Originally Posted by zook

I agree with martin again. jdubs, I throw out the offsuit two-pair hands because of the pre-flop raise. Villain's an unknown, and only the laggiest 50NL players are open-raising T9o and 98o. And remember that we're trying to figure out a CALLING range, so even if he bluff-raised with AK or semibluffed with 77 or AJ (which is unlikely), I doubt he's calling your push with these hands. As I said, I used to play this the exact same way, and now I'm convinced that it's a major leak. These kinds of plays depend on dead money and fold equity, and there's almost none of either in this hand.

You really think we have that much more FE if he only raises to $15? I'm not so sure.

Originally Posted by jdubs

Ok, how about this range?


Board: 8h Td 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.936% 45.44% 03.49% 199749 15355.50 { JJ }
Hand 1: 51.064% 47.57% 03.49% 209100 15355.50 { QQ+, TT-88, AJs-ATs, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo-ATo, QJo }



I really think the suited connector hands need to be considered, including the ones that got a piece of the flop, and have a big draw. These are prime semi bluffing candidates, and A LAG could very well reraise the flop with them. Note now I am slightly behind, having taken the AK and 77 out , but still very close to being even money. I also included the suited 2 gap connectors... some, of them, like T8, actually being ahead of us here.

Originally Posted by zook

Sure, a lagg would raise the flop with some of these hands, but you don't have a read, so you have to go with what an average player would raise with and there's no way this is an average player's range. Plus, even if you're lucky enough to be up against a donkey lagg and he happens to raise one of these hands, he may not call your push. You have to consider his calling range, which imo eliminates at least AJ, QTs, J9s, 87s. Finally, Pokerstove weights hands by their likelihood of being dealt, so when you put AJ into his range, it counts for a lot more than each of the pairs he might be raising. But in reality, an opponent's much more likely to be raising QQ+ or TT-88 here than AJ.
But that's all quibbling. I think the most important thing is that you're not giving an unknown opponent much credit when he raises you big. Big raises usually mean what they look like and without a read, they should be respected.

Originally Posted by Rabid Dog

Ok, I have a question. Lets put aside the flop play for a second. Does no one here re-raise the CO pre-flop? Wouldn't it help to figure out where you are. CO could just be making a standard raise to try to steal the blinds.

I know JJ isn't a great hand, but if you re-raise to $5 or $6 you might take the hand there. If not then go on to your post-flop play. I mean you got all in on the flop with TP and a straight draw, you might as well have gotten a little more aggressive pre-flop.

I could be wrong though, this is just my 2 pennies worth.

Originally Posted by jdubs

and even if I am behind, 10 outs to improve.

Originally Posted by Kinbor

i'd be inclined to check/raise against a very agressive opponent and check/call against a weaker one. nh on the turn, though.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

that's the thing though...you are almost certainly behind here and 10 outs can't justify getting your money in behind like this.

Originally Posted by Renton

I'd actually consider sometimes folding to the huge raise. It may be a small mistake at worst. You have exactly zero fold equity.

Originally Posted by jdubs

I still argue I can't KNOW that he's only on 88-TT QQ+.

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

but you do KNOW that most players don't treat sc's like that, and without a read you should probably go with what the norm is.

Originally Posted by jdubs

In any case, this is not a clear fold.

Originally Posted by jdubs

the fact that villain called push is irrelevant

Originally Posted by jdubs

the fact that villain called push is irrelevant and looking at results...

Originally Posted by jdubs

I can not agree I am massively behind 100% of the time here..most of the time, yes... 100%? that is pushing it, IMO.

Originally Posted by zook

What's he going to fold here? Everyone agrees you have no fold equity, so you have to assume he calls. But if you do have some, he's only folding hands you beat (like AJ & AT). That leaves you even further behind his calling range!

I think there are two hands he might have that you're ahead of, AT & JTs and those are unlikely compared to the rest of his range.

Originally Posted by jdubs

Would you agree with a deeper stack my push over has more value, due to him likely having to fold the overpairs? say my stack is 100$, now I have fold equity and he's hard pressed to call without a set or straight.

Originally Posted by jdubs

from 2+2

yeah, bet/fold there looks abysmal.

nice turn...RR pf is goot. post flop played fine.

Reraise preflop.
Everything else is fine.

yep. rr pf...

everything else is fine.


soooo these guys are just wrong?

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

imo yes
also, 2+2 can be wrong